John Hardie Profile picture
Mar 18 12 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Thread on Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Belgorod Oblast today 1/
Russia's "Sever" Grouping of Forces initially said that Ukraine had attacked Grafovka and Prilese, near the border with Belgorod-Kursk border, with three groups of infantry supported by tanks as well as UR-77 and IMR obstacle-clearing vehicles.

The Russian MoD later said Ukraine attacked five times in the direction of Demidovka and Prilese, with the first attacking beginning at 5:50 AM local time and the last one beginning at 5:30 PM local time).

According to the MoD's report (which should obviously be taken with a handful of salt), the Ukrainians used 5x tanks, 16x other armored vehicles, 3x obstacle-clearing vehicles, an UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, and four light vehicles.

2/
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Reportedly, Belgorod operation was several weeks in the making and aims to create a “buffer zone.”

When asked about it, Zelenskyy characterized the operation as a preemption of a Russian buildup for an attack in Sumy Oblast.

3/
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Russian drone footage of a Ukrainian column reportedly involved in the Belgorod incursion 4/

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More Russian drone footage of Ukrainian columns attacking in Belgorod Oblast, reportedly toward Demidovka. Possibly the same two columns seen in tweet 5. 6/

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More Russian drone footage of a five-vehicle Ukrainian column reportedly attacking in Belgorod Oblast. 7/

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Russian wire-guided FPV drone strikes by 177th Naval Infantry Regiment & 40th Naval Infantry Brigade's Arctic Battalion on Bradley IFVs, BMP-1TS w/ Spis combat module, IMR-2, & Wisent-1 MC in Belgorod Obl. Both units have been operating in Kursk Obl. Ukrainian vehicles have same tactical symbol used in Ukraine's Kursk operation.

First video 0:00-14: Bradley struck at 50.92963, 35.37978 (h/t @giK1893), soon after crossing the border, headed north toward Demidovka. Outcome unclear. Other vehicles seen coming behind it.

First video 0:15-31 and second video 0:28-1:03: Nearby abandoned Bradley destroyed at 50.92976, 35.38076.

Second video, 1:26-2:10: Wisent struck at ~50.92927, 35.38133. Seen destroyed earlier in the video.

8/
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Photo of a Ukrainian UR-77 reportedly involved in the Belgorod incursion today. Possibly abandoned. Note the white triangle--the same tactical symbol used in Ukraine's Kursk operation.

9/
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Russian analog FPV drone strikes on Wisent-1 MC, IMR-2, and UR-77 obstacle-clearing vehicles and an IFV (Bradley?) reportedly involved in the Belgorod incursion. The UR-77 (possibly same one seen in tweet 9) was hit right after firing. 10/

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2x Bradleys returning toward Belgorod border. One gets struck by Lancet then hits mine at 50.92974, 35.38066 (& later struck by FPVs, but crew escaped, as shown in twt 8). The other hit mine at border. 11/

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Geolocation for tweet number 7 above. Russian drone spotted this particular column at least ~3.5 km from Belgorod border.
Wire-guided FPV strike on an ATV. This looks like Mar'ine, Sumy Oblast, near the Belgorod border (50.92256, 35.37946). 13/

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More from @JohnH105

Jan 29
Thread on several interesting documents that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces captured from North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, translated by @SeongminLeeNK. 1/

nkinsider.org/exclusive-docu…
The first document is titled “Combat Experience and Lessons of the 94th Brigade.”

Ukrainian military intelligence has also said that 94th Brigade troops are in Kursk.


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The doc describes an engagement in the Plekhovo area in Kursk Oblast. Some Russian sources previously reported that North Korean troops helped retake that village. For reference, here's @DeepState's map from early December. 3/
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Read 22 tweets
Nov 21, 2024
U.S. & other Western officials said the Russian missile launched at Dnipro was a ballistic missile but not an ICBM as Ukrainian Air Force reported. Some officials said it appears to have been an IRBM, so presumably RS-26 Rubezh.

(Links in alt text) https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-war-11-21-24#cm3r5sq6v00053b6msy7twfcv
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/russia-ukraine-war-missiles-kyiv-claims-icbm-dnipro-after-atacams-strike/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/europe/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-war.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/europe/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-war.html
A senior U.S. official told NYT that the Russian missile launched at Dnipro appears to have been an IRBM but “is a new type we have been tracking.” Unclear whether this means RS-26 or something else. Image
Footage of the Russian missile strikes in Dnipro last night.

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Read 17 tweets
Jun 17, 2024
Another big shakeup in the Russian MoD. Putin replaced a number of long-serving deputy defense ministers and seems to have altered the division of responsibilities between their positions. Thread 1/x Image
Dismissals

Putin issued a decree dismissing First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, State Secretary/Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov, and Deputy Defense ministers Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov.

Belousov, the new defense minister, met with them and thanked them for their service, per the MoD. 2/x


kremlin.ru/acts/news/74313
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Tsalikov’s portfolio included the MoD's departments of financial control & audit, info & mass comms, legal issues, & military-econ analysis and the Main Directorate of Control & Supervision Activities. He was previously rumored to be on the way out. 3/x


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Read 13 tweets
Jan 3, 2024
Thread on Russia's new 153rd Tank Regiment, part of the 47th Guards Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District.

(Picture credit: @naalsio26)

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Note: This draws on open-source research, including VK/TG posts by 153rd Reg troops and their relatives, as well as great work by other analysts (cited below). I've included links to sources except where doing so could burn a source or expose him/her to RU govt scrutiny. 2/x
In a June 2023 meeting with Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russia had formed five new regiments within the 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Combined Arms Army. The 153rd is likely one of the regiments Shoigu was referring to.
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Read 16 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
Video of the Izdeliye 504AP version of the Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile releasing L-504 electronic countermeasures. (Pics are old, provided for reference.)

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Pic from last week showing wreckage of a Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile. You can see the L-504 chaff dispenser. (Third pic provided for reference.)

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Video posted yesterday showing this system in action during recent missile barrage.

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Read 13 tweets
Nov 20, 2023
A Russian manual on how to protect vehicles against UAVs by using add-on cages/screens and jammers. The manual reportedly came from the Russian Defense Ministry’s Main Armored Directorate.

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More pics from the manual, including of the Volnorez vehicle-borne EW system.



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This pic here appears to show suppressors that’re part of the Triton system, which the developer reportedly tested in Ukraine beginning last summer.





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Read 6 tweets

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