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DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 19

💎 DUPLICATE SMALL DOLLAR DONATIONS IN KANSAS LOCAL RACES

Following the discovery of @matt_vanswol’s report on fraudulent donations in Kansas, I analyzed four local candidates’ filings. I uncovered 13 donors who each made identical donations to the same candidate on the same date—10 of these donors were from out of state. These same contributors also appeared across most of the nine candidates that Mr. Van Swol donated to, but I focused on these four reports.

Here are the names I found which appeared across all 4 reports. All dates and amounts were same:

🔷 Benjamin k Hand, 10/10/20, $2.00/$1.00, CA
🔷 Chia Yuan Hung, 10/10/20, $1.00, NY
🔷 Dawn Hoffman, 10/10/20, $1.00, FL
🔷 Elaina Rose, 10/10/20, $10.00, WA
🔷 Jennifer Forbes, 10/10/20, $2.00, KS
🔷 Kathleen Newman, 08/04/20, $32.00, KS
🔷 Margaret Pisciotta, 09/18/20, $4.00, KS
🔷 Martha Teitelbaum, 10/10/20, $1.00, MD
🔷 Matthew Van Swol, 09/01/20, $2.00, NC
🔷 Rena Korb, 10/10/20, $1.00, CA
🔷 Ryan Ward, 10/10/20, $1.00, CA
🔷 Tamir Avital, 10/10/20, $4.00, CA
🔷 Teresa Lewis-Hutson, 09/02/20, $1.00, MO

Receipts follow.

@matt_vanswol Here are where you can download the donation reports for the campaign cycle:

State Legislators: kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScan…
State Senate: kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScan…

Here are the four specific races I analyzed:

Lindsey Constance
Office: State Senator, District 10
Results: Lost to incumbent Mike Thompson.

Jeff Pittman
Office: State Senator, District 5
Results: Won against incumbent Kevin Braun; flipped seat to Democrat.

Joana Scholtz
Office: State Representative, District 40
Results: Lost to incumbent Republican David French.

Rui Xu
Office: State Representative, District 25
Results: Uncontested incumbent.

Read 7 tweets

DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 17

🧵 THREAD: Unmasking Swatting Patterns 🧵

Three additional MAGA X influencers got swatted today: @Beard_Vet , @matt_vanswol , @GrageDustin .

I used Grok to compile the following list of swatting victims and then ran it through both Grok and OpenAI’s deep research tools to find common patterns.

I also used AI to analyze who wasn’t swatted, to identify differentiating factors. Finally, I attempt to identify the next high priority targets. Thread follows. 👇

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin The top AI identifying factor among swatted victims: association with @elonmusk , and/or prominence in alt-media such as InfoWars or War Room.

Documenting receipts (sorry, this will be slow):

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk . @JoeTalkShow is a big fan of Elon:

Read 27 tweets

DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 13

Hello Mr. Ludd,

The question is not whether such awards exist—I have already acknowledged that they do. The issue at hand is not a matter of finding a counter-example and declaring the metric validated. The real question is which heuristic is more accurate: relying on "current award value" or assuming that contractors typically spend up to their maximum authority.

The scale of relevant awards is vast—tens of thousands exceed $1 million and collectively amount to trillions. In contrast, you have cited only a few dozen exceptions. You are not providing not a refutation; you prove to have a fundamental misunderstanding of how heuristic correctness is determined.

Historically and consistently, contractors spend to their maximum authority. Given this reality, the most accurate heuristic for estimating savings is to use potential award value.

I trust this clarifies the point.

In my initial run, which processed the first 60,000 rows, I did not find these awards—my hard drive overheated long before I could complete a full pass through the database. In a later run, which I referenced in another post, I did identify two such awards. That discrepancy is a matter of sampling size, not an issue with the query itself.

I’ll now attempt a full run, which should capture the awards you found.

Running on the full dataset now and I think it'll complete this time! Found a bug which underestimated the number of awards that ended under their potential value, but also underestimated the number of awards that ended OVER their potential value. And

Here's an example:
usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD…

So far, the historical cumulative obligation is vastly exceeding both the current award value and the potential award value.

Read 5 tweets

DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 8

🧵 (Re-posting after it was accidentally made exclusive)

Doing a thought-of-consciousness thread here. First up, Troublemakers. They are small and grassroots, with no EIN that I could link to them yet. They were featured in a news article wherein they asked Amazon to stop buying fracked gas from GTN XPress - which seems to be a highly specific request.

A name I found was Valerie Costa.

Valerie Costa of Troublemakers has an article on Medium. medium.com/@valeriecosta/…

Where does Valerie Costa get the money to jet around all over Europe and the world?

Read 20 tweets

DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 5

🧵 THREAD: Ahead of @DOGE_GSA 's 65 billion re-negotiation with the big contracting companies, I took a quick look at their awards.

First up: Ernst & Young. Uncle Sam cut them a $9 million check for—wait for it—a "Supply Chain Funds Reimbursement Administrator."

Forget STEM, folks—federal consulting is the real money printer! 🤑

Award: CONT_AWD_273FCC24F0052_2700_47QRAD19DU201_4732

@DOGE_GSA 🚨 HUD also gave Ernst & Young $838,195 to “improve its strategic approach” for... its own initiatives.

Translation: Nearly a million bucks to shuffle paperwork, check some boxes, and make sure they comply with policies they wrote themselves.

@DOGE_GSA The Export-Import Bank of the United States just handed Ernst & Young a cool $251,774 for… drumroll please… a "Sub-Saharan Africa Mandate."

That’s right—your tax dollars went to a New York accounting firm to… what? Audit the vibes of African trade deals?

Read 10 tweets

DataRepublican (small r)

@DataRepublican

Mar 5

2025 SOTU LIVE COMMENTARY THREAD -

Disclaimer: Terrible at this kind of thing, you're probably way better off following someone else.

Watching Fox News now. Lots of JD Vance. He is a once-ina-generation talent and hopefully he can be no. 48.

And there's Elon Musk! Caught a glimpse of Bernie, but who cares.

Read 59 tweets

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