Thread by @ruth_deyermond

Absolutely agree with Amb. Fried that this is very damaging - to the US's credibility and national interest. But the idea that this will damage the US position in talks with Russia suggests that these are genuine negotiations. I really don't think they are. 🧵

https://twitter.com/AmbDanFried/status/1903385692119384189

Everything we can hear and see and everything we know about the dominant figures in the Trump administration indicates that the talks are being seen as a mechanism for building an informal US-Russia alliance. Attempting to carve up Ukraine is part of how this is being done.

As I've said before, it looks very much as if the peace deal that the Trump administration is trying to negotiate with the Kremlin is between the US and Russia, not Russia and Ukraine. For them, Ukraine seems to be entirely expendable. So does the rest of Europe.

The Trump admin's engagement with the world seems based on a half-baked version of Realism 101, in which the world is divided up into 19th century spheres of influence but also in which an economically and ideologically allied US and Russia are balanced against China.

Of course, the Russian government's view of international relations doesn't allow for alliances of equals. Competing great powers: yes; alliances based on (rough) equality and mutual respect: no. You're either lord or vassal; puppet master or puppet.

The Trump admin is pro-Russia; speaks deferentially - never critically - about Putin; is hostile to Zelensky; hostile to allies; willing to see 100s of Ukrainians killed to coerce Kyiv; wants to lift sanctions, readmit Russia to the G7/8. It has subordinated US policy to Moscow.

The Kremlin appears to think, understandably, that it is now master and the US is now the vassal. That's why Witkoff was kept waiting for 8 hours by Putin; it's why Russia bombed Ukrainian infrastructure immediately after Trump said they'd agreed an infrastructure ceasefire.

By publicly humiliating the White House, Putin is demonstrating to the rest of the world that he has power over Trump and thus over the whole of the US. By trying to recreate a world of great powers, the Trump administration has made the US the subordinate of China's subordinate.

Those in and around the White House who are likely to both see and care that thanks to the Trump admin the US is looking more and more like Russia's subordinate - Rubio, formerly hawkish GOP senators - are seemingly in too weak a position to do anything to change course.

Trump may not know or understand how badly he is being humiliated by Putin; if he does understand, he has a surprisingly high tolerance for it, which seems inconsistent with other aspects of his personality. Others in the White House may simply not care.

It's unclear whether Trump and those making White House policy know that their approach to negotiations with Russia is humiliating Trump personally and the US as a whole. But its clear to others, presumably including adversaries, as well as former allies. China must be delighted.