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Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, down to 34% by early March. Meanwhile the LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

The LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Here are the leading countries reporting LP.8.1.*. It has been most successful in Brazil, at 50-70% frequency. There’s also steady growth in the US, past 40%. That shows it potentially being more successful than the XEC.* variant was, and therefore driving larger waves.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 15

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but growth has stalled at around 60% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew somewhat to 19% frequency, but then fell back to finish at around 15%.

#COVID19 #UK #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

For the UK, the LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 1.6% per day (11% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. But any crossover looks distant.
🧵

Report link:

🧵 endsmike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 15

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 37%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 28%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported strong growth to 64%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and California to around 40%.
🧵

For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a steady growth advantage of 3% per day (21% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵

Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 10

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The XEC.* variant has been overtaken by the LP.8.1.* variant - growing steadily to around 34%.

There’s a rebound underway among the JN.1.* + FLiRT variants, led by the LB.1.3.1 lineage.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported strong growth to 57%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and California to around 40%.
🧵

For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a steady growth advantage of 3.1% per day (22% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵

Read 7 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 1

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

The XEC.* variant is still dominant, but looks like losing top spot shortly.

The LP.8.1.* variant has been growing steadily – up to around 31% and on track to take over from XEC.*.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*. Illinois has reported continued strong growth to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and California to 30-36%.
🧵

For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a steady growth advantage of 3.2% per day (22% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a recent crossover (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 1

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, while the LP.8.1.* variant grew steadily to around 22%, overhauling the declining JN.1.* + DeFLuQE variants.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

The LP.8.1.* variant shows a steady growth advantage of 2.2% per day (15% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. A crossover looks probable in March.
🧵

Among the LP.8.1.* sub-lineages, the first child lineage LP.8.1.1 has been the most successful. Note the NY lineages are the descendants of LP.8.1.1.
🧵

Read 5 tweets

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