Katelyn Jetelina Profile picture
Mar 26 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
There was an abrupt $11B cut to local/state public health (PH) infrastructure yesterday. I don't think people realize what this means:

-Want a system to check your immunizations instead of digging through docs? No longer able to upgrade to immunization information systems
-Want your mayor to save money by addressing the opioid epidemic? PH no longer able to carry out upgrades to disease surveillance and reporting

-Want to know your blood test results faster? PH no longer able to carry out major laboratory renovations and modernization
- Want to know if and how measles is spreading to protect your family? PH no longer able to perform wastewater testing

- Want your grandma in a nursing home to live a long, prosperous life? PH has to discontinue infection control education for nursing homes.
The narrative is that cuts are about C19 tests and vaccines. That’s just wrong. This $ is indeed being used for C19—used to address key vulnerabilities identified during the pandemic.

But PH is inherently crosscutting. Capacity in 1 area strengthens capacity across the board
This is just the latest in a long pattern, including sidelining scientific advancements, cutting USDA programs that support healthy eating, canceling global cooperation so we are safer in the U.S., and abruptly future cohorts of public servants.

This is not America first.

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More from @dr_kkjetelina

Apr 30, 2024
Will 50% of people die if #H5N1 jumps? Very unlikely.

Yes, this is @WHO's stat BUT three important points...

1. H5N1 deaths are among a small pool of known cases. Past antibody studies of H5 suggest we are missing many infections.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
2. Viruses have to make trade-offs when they mutate for human-to-human spread. Usually, this is in the form of trading disease severity for transmissibility. Studies in 2015 showed when you give H5 the mutations needed to spread effectively between ferrets, it loses its severity
3. We may have some cross-protection with regular flu strains, too. We've all seen N1 (second part of H5N1) a bunch of times through vaccines or infection. Also H5 and H1 are both “group 1” hemagglutinins, which may provide protection too.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29, 2024
Interesting #H5N1 preprint on wastewater just dropped.


Three take-homes:

1. Can H5 be detected in wastewater? Yes, one company (@Verily) now has an assay. It's 100% specific. Huge first step.medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2. Have these assays detected increases this Spring? Yes. @WastewaterSCAN looked at 54 wastewater plants. Data, for example, Dallas is below. H5 started spiking in mid-April. Image
3. Still unanswered questions? A ton.

Animal vs. human? How do we differentiate quickly? This study is watersheds, what about lower-resolution sampling (sewer) to understand spread? What about reporting requirements for select agents (like H5)? What are the genomic sequences?
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1, 2024
How well have the fall 2023 Covid-19 vaccines worked against infection? New data out today.

54% additional protection compared to people that didn’t have the fall vaccine.

A few thoughts:
1. This about the same as flu and honestly better than expected with these types of vaccines and virus mutating so fast (good news!)

2. As expected it works against the newest, highly mutated variants (good news!)

3. It has min. waning (surprising but good news)
4. Compliments Netherlands hospitalization data showing protection. and complements lab data showing *removing* the original formula from the vaccine was likely the driver to broadened b-cells. (good news!)
Read 6 tweets
Nov 28, 2023
Anddddd the @CDCgov finally has a useful wastewater dashboard. Now we are talking! And just in time for exponential growth in Covid-19 🫤

Link:

National and regional trends. cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID1…
Image
State-level trends Image
Current state levels Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23, 2023
@FLSurgeonGen there's this thing called "behavior". And it impacts passive surveillance. Don't trust the COVID-19 data? Then let's look at another vaccine...
HPV. In 2008, we had ~6000 reports to VAERS for adverse events following HPV vaccination. In 2013, we had ~50 reports. This means reports decreased by 12x.
Why you may ask? Did it get safer in 5 years? No. We didn't change the vaccine formula.

cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…
Maybe fewer people got the vaccine so less people reported adverse events? No. In 2008 <10% of teens had the HPV vaccine. In 2013, 40% had been vaccinated. ...
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18, 2022
1/n Estimating death rankings from a novel virus is incredibly challenging. We don't have a "counter-factual"-- A 12-month period with no restrictions and stable virus-- to know the "true" toll. These ACIP numbers came from a preprint with an important nuance.
2/n Authors ranked C19 based on 23-month cumulative deaths. They did this to account for restrictions. They also ranked based on annualized deaths (not on ACIP slide). Using annual, the ranks are as follows:

<1 year: 9
1-4 years: 8
5-9 years: 7
10-14 years: 7
15-19 years: 6
3/n Annual rankings are also not perfect. 2020 was a very restrictive year. Many parents changed "normal" behaviors in 2021 and 2022, too.

Which ranking is "true"? We don't know. My guess is somewhere in the middle. Deaths among kids have been increasing as restrictions lifted
Read 6 tweets

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