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Katelyn Jetelina Profile picture
Katelyn Jetelina
@dr_kkjetelina
Epidemiologist, educator, professor, world traveller, lover of ice cream and the ocean. Mom of 2 under 2. Publisher of Your Local Epidemiologist
2 subscribers
Apr 30 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Will 50% of people die if #H5N1 jumps? Very unlikely.

Yes, this is @WHO's stat BUT three important points...

1. H5N1 deaths are among a small pool of known cases. Past antibody studies of H5 suggest we are missing many infections.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… 2. Viruses have to make trade-offs when they mutate for human-to-human spread. Usually, this is in the form of trading disease severity for transmissibility. Studies in 2015 showed when you give H5 the mutations needed to spread effectively between ferrets, it loses its severity
Apr 29 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Interesting #H5N1 preprint on wastewater just dropped.


Three take-homes:

1. Can H5 be detected in wastewater? Yes, one company (@Verily) now has an assay. It's 100% specific. Huge first step.medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 2. Have these assays detected increases this Spring? Yes. @WastewaterSCAN looked at 54 wastewater plants. Data, for example, Dallas is below. H5 started spiking in mid-April. Image
Feb 1 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
How well have the fall 2023 Covid-19 vaccines worked against infection? New data out today.

54% additional protection compared to people that didn’t have the fall vaccine.

A few thoughts: 1. This about the same as flu and honestly better than expected with these types of vaccines and virus mutating so fast (good news!)

2. As expected it works against the newest, highly mutated variants (good news!)

3. It has min. waning (surprising but good news)
Nov 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Anddddd the @CDCgov finally has a useful wastewater dashboard. Now we are talking! And just in time for exponential growth in Covid-19 🫤

Link:

National and regional trends. cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID1…
Image State-level trends Image
Feb 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
@FLSurgeonGen there's this thing called "behavior". And it impacts passive surveillance. Don't trust the COVID-19 data? Then let's look at another vaccine... HPV. In 2008, we had ~6000 reports to VAERS for adverse events following HPV vaccination. In 2013, we had ~50 reports. This means reports decreased by 12x.
Why you may ask? Did it get safer in 5 years? No. We didn't change the vaccine formula.

cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…
Jun 18, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/n Estimating death rankings from a novel virus is incredibly challenging. We don't have a "counter-factual"-- A 12-month period with no restrictions and stable virus-- to know the "true" toll. These ACIP numbers came from a preprint with an important nuance. 2/n Authors ranked C19 based on 23-month cumulative deaths. They did this to account for restrictions. They also ranked based on annualized deaths (not on ACIP slide). Using annual, the ranks are as follows:

<1 year: 9
1-4 years: 8
5-9 years: 7
10-14 years: 7
15-19 years: 6
Nov 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
i hope people recognize how privileged it is to say “don’t panic” to the public. we’re asking people to understand the second most complex system in the human body while navigating a sea of misinformation while coping with significant exhaustion and mental health problems 1/4 all while receiving little-to-no communication from CDC/FDA/WH or even scientists in “English”. SO i humbly suggest an alternative to “don’t panic”… we take the public along for the ride. we communicate the science and how it’s changing. if ive learned anything with my 2/4