Thread by @muhammadshehad2

Getting many questions about the demonstrations in Gaza

So here's my full assessment of the protests; their potential & limitations; genuineness & spontaneity vs outside influence; motives & goals; & their ability to actually challenge Hamas or bring the war close to an end🧵

1\ The protests seem to have started spontaneously in small numbers & limited areas. Their grievances are genuine; people are tired, desperate for the genocide to end at any cost, many want Hamas to step down from gov to take away Israel's pretext for the siege & killing

But...

2\ The protests quickly drew the interest & influence of external actors, keen to exploit Gazans' despair & pain, & this may end up undermining the movement instead of helping

e.g. Israel demanding Gazans take to the street or face death, land theft & forever war will backfire

3\ When Israel suddenly blesses Palestinians' right to expression against Hamas (while detaining, maiming & murdering those exercising that same right against the occupation), it discourages people from taking part in the protest lest they be called "Israel's collaborators"

4\ An apparent Fatah influence is detectable in some of today's protests, with the chant "Ya Shia" being added.

This chant, accusing Hamas of being Iranian stooges, was popular in 2007 amongst Fatah partisans during the Fatah-Hamas conflict that saw the latter take over Gaza

5\ Israeli media identified one of the protesters today as someone whose family affiliated with Muhammad Dahlan's Fatah

Similarly, a Fatah influence on the demonstrations will make it easier for Hamas to dismiss/delegitimize them as "pushed by an external agenda"
mako.co.il/news-military/…

6\ The protesters' messages are simple, uncontroversial, & realistic: "We want to live", "End the war/genocide", "We want peace & normal life", "Hamas must step down from gov"...

Some sent reassuring messages like "We're not against Hamas, but against its rule"

7\ However, actors trying to exploit these protests to escalate the messaging to the next level (e.g. demanding disarmament, fully dismantling Hamas, foreign gov in Gaza, whitewashing Israel, framing Hamas as the sole problem) are undermining the potential of these demonstrations

8\ MANY Gazans want Hamas to step down from gov (even inside Hamas itself), many want a permanent ceasefire, but full disarmament is a very sensitive topic

The mere existence of any form of weapons in Gaza is seen by many as a deterrent against the IDF staying in Gaza forever

9\ The protest demands (end the war, Hamas step down from gov) have already been largely accepted by Hamas, who has been calling for a permanent end to the war & accepted ceding governance to a technocratic PA gov or an independent administrative committee

Israel says no to both

10\ Even if Hamas is toppled by those protests, Israel is unlikely to accept an alternative form of Palestinian governance, an IDF withdrawal from Gaza or an end to the war.

Netanyahu maintains a veto on all the above & depopulating Gaza remains Israel's priority

11\ The more Israel talks about emptying out Gaza, the lesser those protests' potential & the more strength Hamas will draw by portraying itself as the only entity that can prevent or at least challenge this scenario & make the IDF stay in Gaza costly

12\ Add to this, the continuation of Israeli attacks will probably be the biggest factor in limiting the expansion of the demonstrations.

Israeli mouthpieces called on Gazans to demonstrate in certain areas that were then bombed by the IDF!

13\ The genocide creates a rallying around the flag effect that strengthens Hamas' survival. What Israel failed to accomplish in 16 months of total war, it won't succeed to get by demanding starved & desperate Gazans march to its tune

14\ Popular demonstrations usually succeed by disrupting life, shutting down the economy, making it impossible for the government to function & its leaders to move around

Israel did all this & more already. There's nothing left protesters can do to pressure Hamas amid genocide!

15\ Ultimately, a true popular reckoning with Hamas can only happen once there is a ceasefire... at the ballot boxes

Nonetheless, the protests are a natural right to Gazans who've been through hell on their own for 16 months; no one outside has a right to lecture them