From the nation that brought us the Marshall Plan, we now have this proposal for the “Trump Plan” for #Ukraine. Where the Marshall Plan embraced enlightened self-interest by America, the Trump plan is predatory, and basically an extortion bid against the people of Ukraine. 1/7
2/ Where the Marshall Plan was extended in scope to push back on Communism and Soviet influence and Europe, the Trump Plan basically employs Russian & Chinese economic coercion measures, and will negatively impact U.S. reputation in Europe.
3/ Where the Marshall Plan rebuilt infrastructure in Germany, France and even the UK, and ensured those nations had functioning, sovereign manufacturing and transport sectors, the Trump Plan aims seize Ukrainian assets.
4/ Where the Marshall Plan was part of a larger strategy to rebuild a secure and integrated Europe that could also be trading partner for America, and a bastion against Soviet expansion, the Trump Plan has no strategy.
5/ It is however part of a three year American approach to this war that has eschewed any strategy other than a loose concept of ‘we don’t want Russia to lose and start WW3’. That isn’t a strategy - it’s a risk aversion technique.
6/ And for those who think that there is some grand plan where giving America an economic stake in Ukraine will make the U.S. more likely to help Ukraine with its security, why then is there no accompanying security guarantees?
7/ Is this part of the new operating model for America’s alliances and partnerships? If so, what will be the price countries like Australia and Japan will be asked to pay for American presence and security partnerships in the Pacific? End.
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“This is going to be great television…I will say that.” This is how the American president summed up the conclusion of the most fractious meeting to have occurred in front of journalists between an American president and his foreign counterpart in the modern era. An assessment of the Oval Office ambush of President Zelenskyy. 1/10🧵(Image: C-Span)
2/ The signs earlier in the week had pointed to a more productive meeting. President Trump had rolled back his narrative about Zelenskyy being a dictator, and the minerals agreement may have seen America having an enduring interest in the security of Ukraine. All that disintegrated in an explosive, unseemly exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance.
3/ What are the immediate implications of the Oval Office brawl that will be studied for years to come?
Three years ago today, the military forces of Russia launched an attack across the borders of #Ukraine on the ground and from the air. As Russian troops drove down roads in the hope of a short war and a victory parade in Kyiv, they received a mighty surprise. 1/16 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The response from the people of #Ukraine, to unite and fight whether they were soldier or civilian, inspired us all. In the Battle of #Kyiv and many other battles on the ground, at sea, in the air and in the hearts of minds of people around the world since, the innovation, resilience, courage and essential goodness of the Ukrainian people has stood out.
3/ The rallying cry of their president, who demanded ammunition and not a ride, was a decisive and historic moment. He not only rallied his own people but showed us all what physical and moral courage from national leaders can and should look like in the 21st century. We need more of this urgently.
A good graphic from @detresfa_ showing where the totally unnecessary and unprofessional Chinese live fire off Sydney was planned. Why has China done this? A short thread. 1/9 🧵
2/ The most obvious reason is to point out that if Australia conducts freedom of navigation exercises off the Chinese coast, it can reciprocate. But unlike China, Australia doesn’t have a nine dot line beyond the 12m limit where it seeks to deny international maritime traffic.
3/ They have conducted other deployments into waters adjacent to Australia with governments have kept quiet about previously. However, like they have around Taiwan, the Chinese will probably now normalise these kinds of deployments around Australia. They will want to force us to keep our ships closer to home for political as well as military reasons, which means we can’t help out our allies further north.
The formation of corps for Ukrainian land forces and national guard formations (subject to official confirmation) will be interesting to watch. There will be a few challenges however, and how Ukraine addresses these will indicate just how effective these new corps might be. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦
2/ First, good Corps have Corps level units and formations that shape the battlespace, weight main efforts, reinforce success, and enable the various elements of the current fight. In the current environment, this includes EW, engineers, fires, info ops, logistics, ISR and drones. Will the new Corps have these?
3/ Second, Corps need the right staff to plan future ops, integrate and run current ops, sustain formations and coordinate up and down the chain of command. Corps level planning is not just ‘big brigade’ planning, it is a discreet and highly sought after skill set. Will the Corps HQ have these staffs and who will be training them?
In my latest piece, I conduct a quick assessment of the potential military implications of the release of DeepSeek-R1. There are a few. 1/7 🧵
2/ Implication 1: Every Military Will Want It. I expect that there will be a rush by military and intelligence agencies across the western world to download and testing it extensively.
3/ Implication 2: Lowering the Cost of AI to the Edge. Might AI LLM that use the same approach as DeekSeek-R1 mean military organisations can do everything they want to do with AI, at the levels they want to do it, in a much quicker timescale than imagined?
This is a useful assessment of the situation on the ground in eastern #Ukraine, from the Ukrainian perspective, by @pravda_eng. A number of issues, some specified & some implied, are apparent. 1/8 🧵🇺🇦 pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2…
2/ First, the issues specified in the article. Shortfalls in infantry numbers and training, deficiencies in brigade C2, ammunition quality issues, and false reporting about the situation. None of these are particularly new issues. Any one would be concerning. The combination is alarming.
3/ Now to the implied problems, which are as concerning as those specifically covered in the article.