Trump's proposed new mineral deal for Ukraine is nothing more, nothing less, than the robbery of Ukraine and its future, while at the same time being an attempt by the Trump Administration to block Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
🧵THREAD🧵
2/16 It is probably the most important topic in the coming days and one that will shape the future of the war in Ukraine and indirectly the future of the world, so I recommend you to be interested in what I am about to write not only me but all those who will discuss this topic and have an understanding of the events in Ukraine.
The 3rd proposed agreement, American Style Robbery.
3/16 I have read most of the 55 pages of the document and absolutely nothing I have read seems to be done in good faith, for lasting peace in Ukraine, but is 19th century imperialist-style exploitation. There is no mention in the 55 pages of any kind of guarantees or security assurances, which President Zelensky has been talking about since he came up with the proposal during the Biden Administration.
4/16 Instead (and now to shock you), the Trump Administration asks the following:
- By this agreement, the parties agree that the United States through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), registered in Delaware but under New York law, and Ukraine through the companies accepted by it, will form a Partnership in which the United States will be represented by three persons in the leadership and Ukraine by two;
- The Partnership will have majority voting as its decision making model, but (DFC) will have veto over any decision. I.e.
5/16 the US will have veto over any decision regarding Ukraine's resources and infrastructure;
- The agreement is for ALL of Ukraine's resources, including oil, gas, liquefied gas, rare natural resources, strategic economic infrastructure, ports, ports, railroads, pipelines, pipelines, roads, bridges that are related to these resources;
- The Agreement entitles DFC to explore, develop, extract, extract, exploit, refine, or any other process deemed necessary by the U.S.
6/16 all resources under the Partnership Agreement;
- Ukraine DOES NOT HAVE THE RIGHT to benefit from revenues from these resources until all U.S.
7/16 contributions to Ukraine, as well as investments for the implementation of the Partnership (!!!) are paid, without any amount specified;
- After the full payment of DFC (US) contributions and investments in the Partnership, the US will forever receive in addition to half of the profit and 4% dividends on ALL exploitation (so also 4% of the Ukrainian deemed Ukrainian share of the profit);
- The DFC has the right to convert all capital into dollars and withdraw it,
8/16 while Ukraine has the right only to invest in what the DFC deems acceptable as reconstruction of Ukraine;
- The Partnership CANNOT be attacked in Justice anywhere in the world by Ukraine;
- From the Partnership only the DFC (USA) can withdraw when it wishes, but Ukraine cannot;
2.1 Ukraine's reaction.
9/16 Following the Coalition of the Will meeting in Paris, hosted by President Macron and PM Starmer, President Zelenskyy said that he is disturbed by the way the US continues to change the document that underpins the Partnership and that he will have to consult with his team on it.
(on the Paris meeting, I promise to write more tonight, at least from there we have reason for moderate optimism)
10/16 Personal conclusion.
The Trump administration is plotting an American-style Robbery, which by the way it is drafted (absurd demands) will be rejected by Ukraine and thus Trump will be able to lie publicly that Ukraine does not want peace, but Russia and his friend, the war criminal Vladimir Putin does.
This is why I have said that this Partnership Agreement is essential for the future not just of the war in Ukraine, but for our future.
11/16 A refusal that I consider normal from Ukraine, will cause the Trump Administration to stop any delivery of military aid (even though it would be illegal, being aid flowing from the Biden Administration, voted by Congress) and will help Russia, which would lead to the possibility of a dramatic change of dynamics on the front lines in favor of Russia and thus all of us in Europe will be in direct danger in the coming years if Ukraine does not stand up to the Trump Administration and Russia.
12/16 The Trump Administration, at the same time, is making a hidden concession to Russia, because in the absurd event that Ukraine and President Zelenskyy sign this Partnership Agreement, it most likely conflicts with the European Union's requirements for a state's membership in the Union, thus it would de facto block Ukraine's accession to the EU forever.
13/16 This document is presented as a draft for a clear reason: The Trump administration is using the same maximalist-absurd way of negotiating in the first phase, just like Putin, only to win more than it could have hoped for anyway. But President Zelenskyy, his team and Ukraine are aware of this and will certainly not accept anything more than the second variant (the one they call decent, although that was also immoral), but with security guarantees.
14/16 President Zelenskyy most likely will stall, because several soldier events are going on in Ukraine at the moment that are in Ukraine's favor, with all the unimaginable hardships and pressures they are under (I'll write about that in my next post as well).
It is increasingly obvious that the Trump Administration, even if not an agent of Russia, is acting like one. It is clear that the Trump Administration, by its actions, by its statements, is a partner of Russia and not of Ukraine.
15/16 It is unfortunately obvious that the Biden Administration, with all its minuses, is helping Ukraine, and the Trump Administration is helping Russia.
I invite you to subscribe for free to my new substack, raduhossu dot substack dot com, where I will post such longer pieces, much more in-depth analysis than on Facebook, and will also start a podcast (audio at first) - the latter available to those on Patreon or on the substack for a modest subscription.
16/16 I know it's a long text, but the situation does not allow me, out of sincere respect for you, to throw three words at you and then pretend afterwards that "I've explained, what's so hard to understand?". It is important to understand the seriousness of the moment, to continue to support Ukraine and to ask even our decoys of candidates to take firm stands against such 19th century imperialist practices.
I wish you a much better weekend than, unfortunately, the Ukrainians, who have literally been fighting for almost 1200 days for us as well.
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Valeri Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: 'I received a phone call from Romania asking me not to mention that Shahed drones are falling there [on the territory of Romania]. They said . I told them to shoot them down, you only have 40 F-16s". 🧵👇
2/20 1. First of all, regarding the credibility of the statement, which damages Romania's image extremely seriously: I am absolutely convinced that the information provided by Zaluzhnyi is true and I argue: when the first drones fell in Plauru and Ceatalchioi (Tulcea Region, Romania), I remember as yesterday that I was talking to the Ukrainian side who at 5 am told me about the event and all day our side was denying it, up to the highest level. It was on September 4, 2023.
3/20 On September 9 I had a podcast on Buhnici (you'll see immediately why the timing is relevant), and in Romania there was a huge denial campaign on the one hand and minimization (damage control) on the other. On Digi24, it was retired Romanian General Bălăceanu saying that NO drone exploded over Romania, while on the screen the drone explosion over Romania was shown. Bălăceanu's statement and the replayed video were simultaneous, in a dystopian contradiction that made me scream at the TV with rage.
1/7 An extraordinary achievement! This morning the Ukrainians successfully hit the Engels-2 air base in the Saratov region. Part of the Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, Tu-160 strategic bombers are stationed there.
There they are loaded with Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, as well as KAB and FAB guided bombs. The strategic base is located 700 km from the Ukrainian border. ⤵️
2/7 The initial and secondary blasts scattered debris over a 5km radius and shattered the windows of a hospital 8km away. These are indications, in addition to video footage, that the attack on the base was successful.
3/7 OSINT experts estimate that the strike was on the ammunition depot (so where the missiles were) which is close to the bomber fuel depot (because, isn't it always a good idea to put bombs next to kerosene). It is estimated that at least one Tu-160 and one Tu-95MS were damaged.
For Ukrainians and for those of us who have been in Ukraine for a longer period, it is also a symbolic success.
While Ukraine has shifted the dynamics of the war in its favor, Putin says he would agree to Ukraine and the Trump Administration's 30-day ceasefire proposal IF! that ceasefire would lead to a lasting peace. And you didn't really believe him, did you? 🧵
2/13 russia has handed the Trump Administration a list of demands for this lasting peace to take place: removing Ukraine from the path to NATO membership, international recognition of the illegally occupied regions, namely Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhe, and stopping all military aid to Ukraine.
These demands are, what in the negotiations are called "non-starter" conditions, representing absurd demands for the other side, being just PR smoke, behind which are hidden the real intentions, those of not reaching a lasting peace.
3/13
2. The Kremlin must be wishing for a temporary ceasefire at the moment, because Ukraine has managed in recent weeks to escape the imminent encirclement of Pokrovsk.
For more than 2 weeks, 6 settlements on both flanks of the strategic city in the Donbas region have been liberated. In the Kupyansk sector, 2 more settlements were liberated in the last few days and the Russians had to retreat several kilometers from what seemed an endless offensive.
What's really happening in Romania? I, along with others, have to answer this question because our institutions are severely deficient in communication, leaving Romania trapped between Elon Musk’s fake news and Russian active measures orchestrated by the FSB/SVR.
The beginning: In October 2024, during the candidate validation process for the Romanian presidential election, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR—consider it similar to the U.S. Supreme Court for reference) invalidated the candidacy of Diana Ivanovici Șoșoacă.
2/9 She is a Member of the European Parliament, a Putin supporter, a frequent visitor to the Russian Embassy in Romania, and leader of a far-right party with fascist-leaning yet paradoxically neo-communist views. Anti-Ukraine and all that comes with it.
The CCR ruled that Șoșoacă had violated Romanian laws regarding the promotion of antisemitism and oppressive-criminal regimes. At that time, the far-right in Romania had three candidates in the race: George Simion, Diana Șoșoacă, and Călin Georgescu.
3/9 They shared similar extremist backgrounds, splitting extremist votes among them. However, after CCR (an institution widely regarded as overly politicized) disqualified Diana Șoșoacă, anti-system pressure intensified.
In the election held on November 24, Călin Georgescu, virtually unknown to 90% of Romania’s population just days before, won the first round with 21%, followed by Elena Lasconi, the pro-democratic candidate from the USR party (pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, pro-USA).
Donald Trump mentioned the Republic of Moldova in last night's State of The Union speech. Not in a good way, but in a bad way. Not in the transatlantic sense, but in the Moscow sense.
With each passing day, Donald Trump moves closer to realizing the Kremlin's ambitions from the letter Putin sent to NATO in December 2021, months before the invasion of Ukraine. In case you don't remember it, I'll remind you of some of the demands considered absurd by the civilized world at the time:
2/12
1. In the first chapter, titled "Security Measures for the Russian Federation from NATO":
1.1 NATO not to welcome any new states into the alliance; 1.2 NATO not to offer arms to Ukraine or any state that joined the alliance after 1997; 1.3 To prohibit any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus or Central Asia; 1.4 The re-establishment of a consultative mechanism along the lines of the Russia-NATO Council and the implementation of a NATO-Russia hotline;
2. In the second chapter, titled "US-Russia Security Safeguards Treaty":
3/12
2.1 Neither country shall implement security actions that undermine the security interests of the other; 2.2 The US must make every effort to ensure that NATO does not welcome other states into the alliance; 2.3 A ban on US intermediate-range ballistic missiles on EU territory;
1We are on an information roller-coaster. Today we speak optimistically again. I start on the less optimistic side and end with a lot of optimism:
1. What does the Trump administration's decision mean for Ukraine?
First and foremost it means the halt as of tonight night of any military aid that is contracted or already contracted (so it falls into the realm of illegality to decide) or that is on its way to Ukraine, whether it was munitions, heavy military equipment or military assistance in other forms. 🧵👇
2/24 Here I also include military equipment that is already in Poland and just needed to be crossed the border. I am writing this to understand the magnitude of the decision.
What impact will it have on Ukraine and when will it be seen?
The amount of blocked military aid may not exceed $5 billion, part PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority), part USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative), part USSAU (U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine) which encompasses the two, but also includes aid provided by a vote by Congress.
3/24 If the first two can be stopped by Trump, the USSAU aid coming from Congress cannot be blocked.
The amount isn't extraordinarily large, but this money was being used for munitions and equipment that neither the EU nor Ukraine produce. I mean we are talking about interceptor missiles for Patriot batteries or the missiles used by HIMARS systems, as a prime example.