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Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 30

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH
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I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.
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LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.

LF.7.7.2 has been most successful in Canada, rising to 12% frequency. The US has reported growth to 4%.
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Read 14 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 29

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
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Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.
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For Europe (excluding the UK), the LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 4.4% per day (31% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
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Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 29

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 49%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 19%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
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Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 54-56%.
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For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.3% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
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Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 48% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew recently to 20%, passing the other contenders.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
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For Europe (excluding the UK) from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 4.1% per day (29% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a recent crossover (the data routinely lags).
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Here are the leading countries reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth has been reported from Ireland and Spain, to around 40%.
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Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 44%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 24%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
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Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 75%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to 45-55%.
🧵

For the US from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.4% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, down to 34% by early March. Meanwhile the LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
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The LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
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Here are the leading countries reporting LP.8.1.*. It has been most successful in Brazil, at 50-70% frequency. There’s also steady growth in the US, past 40%. That shows it potentially being more successful than the XEC.* variant was, and therefore driving larger waves.
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Read 4 tweets

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