Post

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
Click again on or Share Via icon
Click on Copy Link to Tweet
Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
More info at Twitter Help

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 30 • 14 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH
🧵

I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.
🧵

LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.

LF.7.7.2 has been most successful in Canada, rising to 12% frequency. The US has reported growth to 4%.
🧵

NB.1.8.1 is descended from XDV.1.5.1. XDV was a recombinant of XDE and JN.1. XDE was a recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4, so this represents the last current variant with any non-JN.1 ancestry.
🧵

XDV.1 added the F456L mutation, then XDV.1.5 added G184S and K478I. NB.1 then added Spike mutations: T22N and F59S. Then NB.1.8 added the Spike Q493E mutation that characterised KP.3.1 FLuQE – an example of convergent evolution. Finally NB.1.8.1 added the A435S mutation.
🧵

NB.1.8.1 has mainly been reported from Hong Kong, rising to 50% frequency.
🧵

LF.7.9 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.9 added the Spike L441R, H445P and A475V mutations.
🧵

LF.7.9 has been most successful in Ireland, rising to 50% frequency. The UK and France have reported growth to 5%.
🧵

XEC.25.1 adds the A435S mutation.

XEC.25.1 has only been reported from Singapore, rising to 40% frequency. Prior to this sub-lineage, the XEC.* variant had not been dominant in Singapore.
🧵

XFH is a recombinant of LF.7.1 and XEF. XEF was a recombinant of LB.1.4 and KP.3.

XFH has been most successful in Singapore, rising to 7% frequency. The UK has reported growth to 6%.
🧵

So in summary, the most obvious contender to challenge LP.8.1.1 at this point looks like LF.7.7.2, considering it’s healthy growth rate and sustained success in North America. But all of the contenders seem limited to particular countries or regions so far.
🧵

The usual caveats apply - recent sample sizes are smaller which might skew these results, and “global” sequencing data is dominated by wealthy countries, with many under-sampled regions.

Honourable mention to NB.1.8 (low growth so far).
🧵

Huge thanks to Federico Gueli for his tips on new lineages to watch out for, eg

🧵skyview.social/?url=https%3A%…

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:

🧵 endsgithub.com/Mike-Honey/cov…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Mike_Honey_

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 29

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.
🧵

For Europe (excluding the UK), the LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 4.4% per day (31% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 29

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 49%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 19%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 54-56%.
🧵

For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.3% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵

Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 29

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 38%, taking over dominance from the declining XEC.* variant.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

The LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 2.5% per day (18% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in early March.
🧵

Among the LP.8.1.* sub-lineages, the first child lineage LP.8.1.1 has been the most successful, with accelerating growth in recent samples.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 48% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew recently to 20%, passing the other contenders.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

For Europe (excluding the UK) from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 4.1% per day (29% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a recent crossover (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Here are the leading countries reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth has been reported from Ireland and Spain, to around 40%.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 44%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 24%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 75%, and there is strong growth also in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to 45-55%.
🧵

For the US from January, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.4% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

Mar 23

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope.

The XEC.* variant has continued to decline, down to 34% by early March. Meanwhile the LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 28%.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

The LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
🧵

Here are the leading countries reporting LP.8.1.*. It has been most successful in Brazil, at 50-70% frequency. There’s also steady growth in the US, past 40%. That shows it potentially being more successful than the XEC.* variant was, and therefore driving larger waves.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

Mike Honey

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @Mike_Honey_

Mike Honey

Mike Honey

Mike Honey

Mike Honey

Mike Honey

Mike Honey

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!