Thread by @InsiderGeo

🧵 Iran’s Nuclear Program: How It Works, Key Sites & What Happens If Attacked👇

1/With talk of U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, here’s a detailed breakdown:
🔹 How Iran’s nuclear program works
🔹 Key sites (Natanz, Fordow, etc.)
🔹 The IAEA’s concerns
🔹 The Stuxnet cyberattack
🔹 What happens if these sites are hit?

Let’s break it down.👇

2/Iran’s nuclear program is officially for civilian energy & medical research but enrichment levels raise concerns.

Enrichment levels:
🔹 3-5% → Civilian nuclear power
🔹 20% → Research & medical isotopes
🔹 60% → Near weapons-grade
🔹 90% → Needed for a bomb
Iran is at 60%

3/For U.S this is a red line but why?
Going from 60% to 90% is much faster than 0% to 20%.
-With advanced centrifuges, Iran could hit bomb-grade (90%) in weeks or even days.
-Once they have ~25kg of 90% uranium, they can build a warhead.
-This is why 60% is a red line.

4/But how Fast Could Iran Get a Bomb?
Breakout time: 3 weeks to 1 month to produce enough 90% uranium.
Weaponizing it into a warhead could take months to a year.
If Iran goes for a bomb, the world might not know until it’s too late.

5/IAEA have concerns on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Undeclared activities: Some nuclear materials are unaccounted for.
Lack of access: The IAEA says Iran isn’t fully cooperating.
Iran denies military intent, but transparency is lacking.

6/Iran’s Official Position:
🔹 Iran claims their nuclear program is for peaceful energy & medical use.
🔹 Denies any intention to build a bomb.
🔹 States that IAEA access is limited due to sanctions.

7/What Western Intel Suggests:

🔹 Western sources believe Iran has all components for a nuclear weapon.
🔹 Fordow’s secrecy raises concerns about military intent.
🔹 Iran may be keeping the option open to develop a bomb quickly.

8/ If the U.S. or Israel strikes, main targets would be:

Natanz → Largest enrichment site, partially underground
Fordow → Deep under a mountain, hard to destroy.
Isfahan → Converts uranium into gas.
Arak → Potential plutonium source.
Bushehr → Civilian plant, risky target.

9/How Do Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Work?
1️⃣ Uranium mining & conversion → Turning uranium into gas.
2️⃣ Enrichment → Increasing uranium purity in centrifuges.
3️⃣ Fuel production or bomb-making → Based on enrichment.
4️⃣ Plutonium production → A separate bomb pathway.
👇

10/Natanz Iran’s Largest Enrichment Facility:
What is it?
🔹 Iran’s main enrichment site, partially underground but vulnerable to attack.

What does it do?
🔹 Enriches uranium using thousands of centrifuges (up to 60% purity).

11/Why is it important?
🔹 Produces most enriched uranium.
🔹 Targeted by Stuxnet in 2010.
🔹 Key for bomb development.

12/Fordow Iran’s Most Fortified Site:
High-security site built under a mountain.

What does it do?
🔹 Enriches uranium to 60% (originally 20%).
🔹 Harder to destroy than Natanz.

13/Why is it important?
🔹 Too small for civilian use suspected military intent.
🔹 Can quickly produce 90% bomb-grade uranium.
🔹 Even bunker-busters might not destroy it.

14/Isfahan: Where Uranium Gets Ready for Enrichment
🔹 Converts yellowcake (U₃O₈) into UF6 gas for enrichment.
🔹 Without this step, Natanz & Fordow can’t work.
🔹 A prime target destroying it halts enrichment.

15/Arak: Iran’s Plutonium Pathway
🔹 A heavy-water reactor, potential plutonium source.
🔹 Iran disabled it under the 2015 deal but could restart.
🔹 Bombing it risks radiation contamination

16/Bushehr Iran’s Civilian Nuclear Plant
🔹 Built for electricity.
🔹 Not linked to weapons but could be risky to attack.
🔹 Striking it risks a nuclear disaster.

17/What Happens If These Are Attacked?
Natanz/Fordow hit → Delays Iran but doesn’t stop them.
Isfahan hit → Uranium enrichment halts.
Arak hit → Risk of radiation.
Bushehr hit → Nuclear meltdown risk (Chernobyl style.)

18/Can the U.S. or Israel Destroy Fordow?

Israel alone? No, it lacks bombs strong enough.
The U.S.? Maybe, using GBU-57 bunker busters but it would require multiple direct hits.
Guaranteed destruction? Only with nuclear weapons, which isn’t an option.

19/The most successful attack on Iran's nuclear program wasn't a bomb it was a virus,
a highly sophisticated cyberweapon, widely reported to have been developed by the U.S. and Israel, designed to sabotage Iran's centrifuges at Natanz.

20/How Stuxnet Worked:

Infected USB drives introduced the virus into Iran’s systems.
Stuxnet silently sped up & slowed down centrifuges, causing them to self-destruct while appearing normal to Iranian engineers.
Result? 1,000 centrifuges destroyed.

21/The Most Likely Scenario If Iran’s Nuclear Sites Are Hit

1/Iran’s nuclear program is delayed, but not destroyed.
2/They rebuild at secret underground sites.
3/Iran retaliates with missile strikes on U.S. and Israel bases.
4/Oil prices rise due to tensions.

22/The Worst-Case Scenario:

Iran goes all-in on building a bomb.
A regional war erupts missiles hit Israel, U.S. bases, and Saudi Arabia.
Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz causing an oil crisis.
The U.S. gets dragged into a prolonged conflict.

23/The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.

If Iran blocks it:
🔸 Oil prices skyrocket, risking a global recession.
🔸 Naval clashes with the U.S. & allies.
🔸 The U.S. have to use military force to reopen it.

24/Could this lead to the Collapse of Iran regime?

The Iranian regime is not widely loved protests have grown in recent years.
If war destroys Iran’s economy, we could see mass uprisings.
But more likely: The regime cracks down harder, leading to a long, costly war for the US.

25/Overall, I hope this explanation helped clarify how these facilities work and the risks involved. Given recent developments, it’s important to have a solid background in case things escalate.

Just a reminder that finding information about Iran's nuclear program is extremely difficult since it's a state secret. I did my best to gather details.