Beneath the Ice: The Quiet Geopolitical Storm Brewing in Antarctica

Today we’re going to explore it.
🔹 Who claims what
🔹 What lies beneath the surface
🔹 Who’s making moves
🔹 Why 2048 changes everything
🔹 What could go wrong

👇🧵. 1/First: What is Antarctica?

🔹 5th largest continent
🔹 ~98% covered in ice
🔹 No permanent population
🔹 Not owned by any country
🔹 Crucial to sea levels + climate stability

We often hear talk of invasion and conflict across the Taiwan Strait. But the reality? The economic ties between China and Taiwan are far more complex and deeply intertwined than most realize. Let’s dive into the facts behind the headlines. 👇
1/24.🧵 1/We often hear about China possibly invading Taiwan but the truth is far more complex. Today, we dive into the deep economic ties between these two and why economic pressure, not military action, remains the likelier tool of influence.

What’s going on between Cambodia and Thailand?
Over the past weeks and months, border tensions have flared up again soldier clashes, closed checkpoints, leaked calls.

But to really get it, we need to dig into history first. Let’s break it all down. 👇 1/24
🧵 1/The Khmer Empire (Cambodia) (9th–15th c.) once dominated much of mainland Southeast Asia including parts of today’s Thailand. It left behind vast stone temples like Preah Vihear, Ta Muen Thom, and Ta Krabey monuments of Khmer power, now split by modern borders.

Talk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is back.

You’ve heard this before but this time feels different.

Here’s a fast, clear thread:
🔹 What the Strait is
🔹 Why it matters
🔹 Who controls what
🔹 How Iran could disrupt it
🔹 What happens if it spirals

1/24🧵👇. 1/The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint.

🔹 Connects the Persian Gulf to open waters
🔹 Just 21 miles wide at its narrowest
🔹 A third of global seaborne oil flows through it
🔹 Used by over 30% of LNG exports globally

BREAKING: New satellite images obtained by Yle reveal Russia’s large-scale military buildup near Finland. Construction of a permanent artillery brigade garrison is underway in Luptsche-Savino, Kandalaksha, with over 2,000 troops expected. Military presence is also growing in Sapjornoye and Petrozavodsk, signaling a lasting strategic buildup. 👇 Luptsche-Savino (Kandalaksha)

Large-scale construction of a new military town for an artillery brigade and engineer troops.

Earthmoving over 1.4 km, forest cleared, old buildings demolished.

About a dozen new buildings planned: barracks, dormitories, weapons & fuel depots, HQ, water treatment plant, health center.

Renovation of Soviet-era apartments and construction of new residential buildings.

Estimated troop strength: 2,000+ soldiers.

Rare Earths: Abundant Resources, Strategic Dependencies
Despite widespread deposits, China dominates rare earth refining.
This thread explores the technical, economic, and geopolitical reasons why: 🧵👇 1/Rare earth elements (REEs) are 17 metals like:
● Neodymium
● Dysprosium
● Lanthanum
They power:
● EVs
● Wind turbines
● Smartphones
● Military systems
● Clean tech

Cyber war in motion:
New intel confirms a 2-year Russian GRU operation targeting logistics firms, IP cameras, and IT systems tied to aid for Ukraine.
Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes: 🧵👇 1/The operation is attributed to Russian GRU Unit 26165, aka:

APT28

Fancy Bear

Forest Blizzard

BlueDelta
These are elite state hackers focused on espionage.

Understanding the India–Pakistan Conflict: From Partition to War and Why We’re Still Here Today. 🧵👇 1/In 1947, British India was partitioned into two dominions: India and Pakistan. The split triggered the largest mass migration in history. Communal violence killed hundreds of thousands, sowing early seeds of hostility between the two new nations.

🧵 Iran’s Nuclear Program: How It Works, Key Sites & What Happens If Attacked👇 1/With talk of U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, here’s a detailed breakdown:
🔹 How Iran’s nuclear program works
🔹 Key sites (Natanz, Fordow, etc.)
🔹 The IAEA’s concerns
🔹 The Stuxnet cyberattack
🔹 What happens if these sites are hit?

Let’s break it down.👇

Europe’s Military Strategy is Broken. Fix It Now Or Regret It Later. 🧵👇 1/Many assume European armies are ready for large-scale war. The reality? We’re years behind. From troop shortages to industry failures, here’s why Europe is unprepared and why time is running out.👇

Russia and Belarus Announce Zapad-2025: A Repeat of 2021 and a Prelude to War? 🧵👇. 1/Russia and Belarus have officially announced Zapad-2025, a large-scale military exercise set for mid-September. While officials claim it’s just training, history tells a different story Zapad-2021 masked Russia’s preparations for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Germany Historic showdown: For the first time, Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz face off in a duel for the chancellorship. I'll post the most important statement from the debate right here👇 Merz on AfD cooperation
Merz said that a few percent of voters would like to see cooperation. "But there is no common ground," Merz promised. And then he said very specifically: "This cooperation will not happen."

Why the South China Sea is China’s Bigger Priority Than Taiwan (And Why War Over Taiwan is Unlikely For Now)

In a previous thread, I talked about why the South China Sea (SCS) is so crucial for China. Now, let’s shift gears and break down why war over Taiwan is unlikely.👇🧵 1/Let’s start with the South China Sea (SCS).

Why is it more important to China than Taiwan (at least in the short term)?

The SCS is:
✅ A major shipping route ($3.4 trillion in trade)
✅ A rich source of oil & gas
✅ A military buffer zone

China needs control over it.

Japan’s Military is Rising Again and China is Watching Closely For decades, Japan was known for its pacifism. No offensive military, no war, just defense.

But that’s changing fast.

A thread on Japan’s remilitarization, the Senkaku Islands dispute, and why Asia is on edge: 🧵👇 1/The Senkaku Islands are just a few uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea. But they could spark one of the most dangerous conflicts in the world between Japan, China and the U.S

Why? Because they are a symbol of power in the region and neither Japan nor China will back down.

The War in Congo: Africa’s Overlooked Conflict That Could Explode. 1/24🧵👇 1/In recent days, the Congo-Rwanda conflict has gained more attention, but few understand its deep roots. This thread will break it down: the history, M23, Rwanda’s role, foreign interests, and why this war is critical. Let’s begin :)

Part 2: Greenland’s Future in the Arctic: Military, Resources, and Independence. 🧵👇 1/23. 1/In Part 1, we explored why Greenland is key to Arctic geopolitics. In Part 2, we’ll go deeper: military build-up, environmental risks, economic potential, and independence dreams. Why does Greenland matter so much? Let’s break it down.

What’s Happening in Europe and the World: How Submarine Cables Work and Why They Matter 🧵👇 1/23. 1/Did you know that 95% of global internet traffic relies on submarine cables?

Recent incidents in Europe and Asia like the Baltic Sea damage and Taiwan cable cuts highlight the importance and vulnerability of these hidden lifelines. Let’s break down how they work.

Trump, China, and the Panama Canal: Why This 50-Mile Waterway Still Rules the World 🌎⚓ 1/22👇 1/Donald Trump recently suggested the U.S. should "retake control of the Panama Canal."

Why? Because this 50-mile shortcut isn’t just about trade it’s a global chokepoint for power. Let’s explore how the canal shapes trade, military strategy, and geopolitics.👇

Why is everyone from Trump to China obsessed with Greenland and the Arctic? It’s not just ice and polar bears. It’s about power, money, and the future of the world. Here’s why the Arctic is the new battleground 🧵👇 1/20 1/The Arctic was once dismissed as a frozen wasteland. But today, it’s a geopolitical hotspot melting ice has unlocked new shipping routes, resources, and strategic opportunities. And with that comes competition sometimes cooperation, but mostly conflict.

The world is fixated on Taiwan, but the South China Sea (SCS) is where China is playing its long game. If you care about global trade, security, and geopolitics, this is the crisis you can't ignore. Let me break it down 👇 1/22 1/First, why does the South China Sea matter?
🔹 30% of global trade ($3.4T annually) flows through its waters.
🔹 It holds 11 billion barrels of oil & 190 trillion cubic feet of gas.
🔹 Fisheries here feed millions across Southeast Asia.

Thread: Russia's Satellite Challenges in Ukraine Conflict
Russia relies on satellite intelligence in Ukraine, but its limited, aging fleet and tech challenges make it tough to track Ukrainian defenses accurately. 🧵⬇️ 1/22 1/Russia has around 100 military or dual-use satellites, but only 19 are for Earth observation. Many others are for communications or navigation, limiting their impact on battlefield intelligence collection. This creates challenges in tracking Ukraine’s mobile defenses.