How does Russia's shadow fleet work once it leaves Russian ports? Why is the Mediterranean becoming increasingly important? And could Operation IRINI become one of Europe's most effective tools against sanctions evasion?🧵👇

By @InsiderGeo & @SONARROW_OSINT 1/The Deliver was inspected under a false Cameroonian flag with French authorities backed by Operation IRINI. It's a signal of where sanctions evasion is heading: the Mediterranean. Could IRINI become Europe's key weapon against it?

ANALYSIS | Mali’s July 4 attack wave does not yet prove a territorial collapse. What it does show is pressure; something more immediately useful for the armed groups.
Anefis, Aguelhok, Gao, Sévaré and Kenieroba were all at the same time.

🧵(1/7) 2/ FAMa says military positions were targeted and later claimed the situation was under control.
That may be true. But for now, its casualty and control claims remain official claims, not independently verified facts.

BREAKING: A new investigation by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says that Russia conducted a coordinated drone campaign across 12 NATO countries and Ireland between 2024 and 2026, targeting military bases, nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure. 1/The campaign ran between August 2024 and February 2026, with drones detected over 12 NATO countries and Ireland. Military bases, nuclear facilities, airports and critical infrastructure were repeatedly targeted.

Starting July 1, Russia will suspend the movement of people, vehicles and cargo through seven railway border crossings with Finland, Estonia and Latvia, Moscow has provided no official explanation. Here's what could be behind it. 🧵👇 1/First, some context.

These crossings are no longer major trade routes. Since 2022, trade between Russia and the Baltics has collapsed by roughly 90%. Finland closed its land border in 2023, while Estonia suspended most rail traffic and withdrew its state operator from Russia.

NEW: In a rare interview, Poland's foreign intelligence chief warned the country must operate as if an armed conflict with Russia is a near-term prospect. He said Moscow will continue testing NATO through provocations and that the risk of military confrontation is real. 1/He warned a serious Russian provocation against one of the Baltic states remains a real scenario, adding: The Russians are observing our reactions. According to him, Moscow is constantly testing NATO's resolve and response.

Nearly 80 years after WWII, Russia and Japan still haven't signed a peace treaty over four islands.

Today, the Kurils are a military stronghold, a key naval gateway, and one of the Pacific's most strategic island chains.

Here's why they matter. 🧵👇 1/The Kuril Islands stretch between Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula and Japan's Hokkaido.
Their position separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean, giving them strategic importance for maritime access, naval operations and regional security.

ATTENTION: BEFORE YOU SHARE THE CLAIM THAT "ROMANIA IS ADVANCING A BILL TO UNIFY WITH MOLDOVA," READ THIS. Right now, this story is being used by the Kremlin to push the narrative that Romania wants to "annex" Moldova. Don't amplify the narrative without the full context. ⬇️🧵 1/The proposal was introduced by S.O.S. România, led by Diana Șoșoacă, a Romanian politician who has publicly described herself as "pro-Putin" and said she "loves Russia." This is not a Romanian government initiative. The government opposed the bill and issued a negative opinion

BREAKING: German intelligence agencies have raised internal threat levels amid a surge in Russian espionage. Authorities cite surveillance of intelligence personnel, suspicious vehicles, security probing attempts, and repeated incidents at and around BND facilities in Berlin 1/German security officials report a significant increase in suspected surveillance activities targeting intelligence personnel and facilities. Incidents include individuals following employees, suspicious approaches, drone overflights, and attempts to assess security procedures

THREAD | How Iran and Oman could normalize payments for crossing Hormuz.

Tehran and Muscat are not openly proposing a toll. They are building the possible legal architecture for ships to pay without formally paying for the right of passage.

🧵👇 UNCLOS Articles 38 and 44 protect continuous transit through international straits and prohibit coastal states from obstructing or suspending it. The narrow opening is the logic of Article 26: vessels cannot be charged merely for passing, but non-discriminatory fees may be collected for specific services actually rendered.

THREAD | Russian propaganda is circulating a map claiming a new US intelligence document "confirms" American bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
The document is real. What it actually says is close to the opposite of the claim. Let me walk through it. First, the concessions, because they matter. ODNI did release a declassified slide deck on June 12, under outgoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard. US-funded labs in Ukraine are real. Black & Veatch did build them. Trump did sign a gain of function executive order. None of that is in dispute.

Thread: How China Is Actually Helping Iran in This War

1/ On April 19, US Navy forces intercepted the Iranian container ship MV Touska in the Gulf of Oman. It was returning from China, carrying dual-use equipment. That seizure is the most concrete recent example of what Chinese support to Iran actually looks like in this war, a network of civilian and commercial channels, assembled over a decade, carrying things with obvious military applications. This thread walks through how those channels function.

🧵⬇️ 2/ Start with navigation. Iran got military-level access to BeiDou in 2021, confirmed by the US DoD's own China Military Power Report. Military BeiDou delivers sub-meter precision and carries a short-message service for command continuity. The key advantage from Iran's perspective is that BeiDou sits outside US sovereign control. Washington can jam Iranian receivers, electronic warfare works on any GNSS, but it cannot selectively degrade the system against Iran, deny code access, or turn it off. With GPS, Washington can do all three.

⬇️

TAKE: If the US really needs to clear mines from Hormuz, can they actually do it? And how? I dug into the US Navy's mine countermeasures capability as of April 2026. 🧵(1/13) 2/ Start with the most brutal fact: in Sep 2025 the US Navy decommissioned ALL 4 Avenger-class minesweepers based in Bahrain. The ships that guaranteed mine clearance in the Gulf for 30 years are gone. Loaded onto a cargo ship in Jan 2026.

UPDATE: The key part of this UNSC fight is not Russia or China. It is France. Moscow and Beijing blocking force language on Hormuz is expected. Paris doing it too tells you there is still no real Western consensus for giving this crisis a UN-backed military path. 🧵(1/6) 2/ Bahrain’s draft was never just about shipping. It was about building legal cover for a harder response in Hormuz. Even after the text was softened to “all defensive means necessary,” France still joined Russia and China in pushing back.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Now the Houthis are threatening Bab el-Mandeb too.
Until recently one chokepoint. Now we risk two simultaneously.
🔹 What each strait controls
🔹 What rerouting costs
🔹 Who bleeds most
🔹 What you're already feeling at home
1/24 🧵👇 1/For years the Red Sea was the problem. Ships rerouting. Costs rising. Egypt's Suez Canal bleeding revenue.
That was one chokepoint Bab el-Mandeb threatened by a non-state actor, now Hormuz is closed. The world hasn't faced both at once before.

TAKE: There’s a lot of talk about “peace talks”, but the real question is simpler: what can each side actually accept? Not in theory, but in reality. That’s where deals are made and it’s also where most of them fall apart. 🧵(1/8) 2/ The U.S. position still looks tough on paper: stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, limit missiles, cut support to proxies, and reopen Hormuz. But taken literally, that is very close to asking Iran to dismantle most of its strategic posture.

TAKE: My sense is that Trump is looking at this war like a negotiator first. The 48-hour ultimatum on Hormuz fits that logic. Reopen it, or we hit your energy system. That doesn’t sound like someone planning a long war. It sounds like someone trying to force a deal fast. 🧵(1/6) 2/ If bringing down the regime outright looks too hard, then the goal shifts. Not total victory, but a stronger position. Get leverage, then go to the table from a place where the other side has fewer options.

UPDATE: What the U.S. has been hitting in Iran over the last hours says a lot about the real priority right now. The pattern doesn’t look random: coastal missile sites, naval-linked assets and hardened facilities all point in the same direction. 🧵(1/3) 2/ A lot of the focus seems to be on targets tied to Hormuz: anti-ship systems, radar, storage and coastal infrastructure. This suggests Washington is less interested in symbolic damage and more in reducing Iran’s ability to threaten shipping and energy flows.

BREAKING: Moldova declares emergency after Russian attack contaminates Nistru River. Residents in the Naslavcea region are on yellow alert as laboratory tests show pollutant levels far above safety limits, forcing authorities to warn that water supply to northern towns, including Bălți, may be temporarily cut.

The Ministry of Environment, led by Gheorghe Hajder, confirmed that petroleum substances continue to flow into the river, prompting urgent intervention. Teams from Moldova and Ukraine are on-site installing filters, barriers, and conducting water tests every six hours using mobile labs. Officials stressed that straw bales are the most effective method to contain the pollutants.

The contamination stems from oil spills caused by a Russian strike on the Novodnistrovsk Hydropower Plant, according to local sources. On March 11, Bălți’s residents were left without potable water, as authorities deployed containment barriers downstream to prevent further spread.

In response, Moldova has mobilized its army and requested activation of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, seeking specialist teams, oil containment equipment, and mobile water testing stations.

Authorities warn that this is an ongoing emergency, with thousands of residents at risk, and cross-border coordination with Ukraine continues to mitigate the impact and monitor water quality. Moldova now faces one of its most serious environmental emergencies in decades, triggered directly by a Russian military attack.


Romanian teams are already on the ground too. Working along the Nistru River to install additional filters and containment barriers to prevent the pollution from spreading downstream.

BREAKING: Germany arrested two suspects this morning over an attempted sabotage of German Navy vessels in Hamburg. Investigators say they damaged a corvette by pouring abrasive material into engines and tampering with fuel and safety systems. The suspects, a Romanian and a Greek national, are accused of sabotaging German naval vessels in Hamburg, damaging engines, water lines and safety systems. Raids were carried out in multiple countries with Eurojust support, pointing to a coordinated and serious investigation into possible organized or state-linked sabotage.

NEW: Canada’s Armed Forces have modelled a hypothetical U.S. invasion scenario for the first time in over a century, senior officials say. The exercise explores how Canada might respond if conventional defence collapses including insurgency-style tactics. 1/Officials stress this is not an operational war plan but a theoretical model. A U.S. attack is considered highly unlikely, and military cooperation with Washington, including NORAD, remains intact. Still, the modelling reflects a shift in threat perception not seen in decades.

Leaked internal documents from Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, analyzed by the Molfar Intelligence Institute, indicate that Moscow has been testing and upgrading Shahed drones outside Russia, including in Kazakhstan and potentially Turkey.

The documents show the use of European and tourist SIM cards, 4G modems, and trackers to improve navigation, telemetry, resistance to electronic warfare, and post-strike data collection. According to Molfar, this testing may help explain the unexplained drone overflights reported across multiple European countries in recent months, particularly near strategic and military sites.

The findings suggest Russia is adapting its drones to operate across foreign telecom networks, not only for use in Ukraine but potentially for broader operational environments.
According to the investigation, Russian engineers tested Shahed drones using SIM cards from European mobile operators to study signal stability, flight correction, data transmission, and how drones behave inside foreign telecom environments. This allows Russia to map air-defense reactions, EW interference zones, and network vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine.