For years, #Syria's crisis was a complex geopolitical battleground, involving #Russia, #Iran, #USA, #Turkey, #Israel & more.
With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵:
With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell 4 months ago, #Israel has launched ~750 airstrikes & 100+ ground incursions into #Syria, seeking to cripple #Syria militarily -- while demanding a complete demilitarization of the south.
See my latest on this: foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/27/isr…
See my latest on this: foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/27/isr…
With the #HTS-led military victory in #Syria, #Turkey -- in theory -- has the most to gain, and to a large extent, it's moved methodically to establish its influence.
But for now, the transitional gov't in #Damascus wants to balance its regional relations.
But for now, the transitional gov't in #Damascus wants to balance its regional relations.
BUT, within a post-Oct 7 context, in which Israeli action in #Gaza, #WestBank, #Lebanon & #Syria all continue, #Turkey is seeking to use #Syria as a means of deterring #Israel aggression.
It's Defense Ministry has a major accord on the table in #Damascus.
It's Defense Ministry has a major accord on the table in #Damascus.
Per that proposed accord, #Turkey wants to control Menagh Airbase in #Aleppo (for drones) & T4 [& possibly Shayrat AB] in #Homs (for jets) -- both requiring sophisticated HİSAR Air Defense systems.
There's a #PKK & #ISIS angle, but it's also about #Israel.
There's a #PKK & #ISIS angle, but it's also about #Israel.
In this context, #Turkey -- with US knowledge/encouragement -- has led the formation of a new regional security alliance: involving #Jordan, #Iraq & #Syria.
For the US, it's about a long-term D-#ISIS capability -- but for the region, it's also about #Israel.
For the US, it's about a long-term D-#ISIS capability -- but for the region, it's also about #Israel.
Until now, #Syria has held off *signing* this proposed defense accord with #Turkey -- but Turkish personnel are already weeks into rehab & construction at Menagh AB & in the early stages at preparing similar work at T4 AB.
On March 25, #Israel hit T4.
On March 25, #Israel hit T4.
The US stance[s] here is problematic -- with the #Trump White House giving a de facto green-light for #Israel's military actions in #Syria, while the DOD/CENTCOM is proactively encouraging a regional security alliance that effectively challenges that.
For now, we're slowing walking towards a dangerous confrontation between #Israel & #Turkey over #Syria -- something that the transitional gov't in #Damascus & the Syrian people want nothing to do with.
If it syncs up its policy, the US could de-escalate.
If it syncs up its policy, the US could de-escalate.
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