Here’s the problem we hope this dashboard will help solve. SARS-CoV-2 remains very prevalent in the US.
However, sequence surveillance from patients has plummeted. In addition to fewer samples, the average sequence takes >3 weeks to be reported (and it’s getting slower).
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Fortunately, we have wastewater surveillance (primarily through CDC NWSS), which covers a large chunk of the population and has a fairly fast turnaround (<2 weeks).
First, I think I was wrong about the lineage being JN.1 derived. I thought it was JN.1 because it had 22926C (455S), but it looks like it only acquired that recently.
In samples as recent as December the lineage lacked 455S and 456L. 2/
That would mean the lineage is BA.2.86-derived, which suggests it was acquired probably early 2024.
Caveat, as @LongDesertTrain points out, persist infections hate 455S. It’s possible that the lineage was JN.1, but reverted at 455, but then gained 2 nt creating 455A. 3/
Wastewater variant update. This is the composite data from over 1,000 US samples collected over the last 6 weeks. 1/
You have to extrapolate a little bit because several changes are shared by multiple lineages.
It appears that the new lineage I mentioned last week (MC.10.1 + 445P) is around 4% and is the fastest growing of the lot. It now has a PANGO designation - PA.1
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LP.8 is still expanding is is probably about 12% now. Since it is a KP.3.1.1 derivative, KP.3.1.1* might become dominant again.