Trump's tariffs are the most expensive and masochistic the US has pursued in decades.
A very crude estimate of Trump's tariffs puts the projected loss at $20 trillion dollars, or well over $200,000 per family of four.
Here is the basis for the calculation:
As the president spoke, the value of all US stocks fell at least 2 to 3 percent or about $1.5 trillion dollars.
Most of the losses to corporations were already discounted before the president spoke. So $4 trillion is a better estimate of stock market loss.
The stock market discount only represents lost corporate profits. Corporate profits are about 10 percent of GDP, so very conservatively the present value of economic loss is 5 times the stock market loss or $20 trillion dollars.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Any self-respecting Treasury Secretary would resign rather have the Department be complicit in the weaponization of the IRS against a political adversary of the President. Harvard will endure and it is far, far from perfect, but if this directive is not withdrawn, the Administration will have taken another substantial step away from the rule of law and democracy.
.@SecScottBessent is derelict with respect to what may be his most important duty—maintaining law-based rights respecting our tax collection system. DOGE violating privacy rules, evisceration of enforcement capacity, politicization of leadership and now political intrusion into a specific taxpayer’s status.
The result will be revenue losses of a trillion dollars or more over the next decade. The erosion of American democracy has costs that cannot be priced.
Developments in the last 24 hours suggest we may be headed for serious financial crisis wholly induced by US government tariff policy.
Long-term interest rates are gapping up, even as the stock market moves sharply downwards. This highly unusual pattern suggests a generalized aversion to US assets in global financial markets. We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market.
This could set off all kinds of vicious spirals, given government debts and deficits and dependence on foreign purchasers.
I am profoundly saddened and alarmed by @Columbia University and @PaulWeissLLP law firm's capitulation to the increasingly dictatorial Trump administration.
I cannot judge, because I do not have many of the relevant facts, the wisdom or necessity of the steps taken.
But this kind of bending of the knee by major institutions, if continued, threatens American democracy.
There is strength in numbers, and I hope across American universities and American institutions more broadly there will be organization for collective resistance to extortionate government demands.
Harvard continues its failure to effectively address antisemitism.
Despite President Garber’s clear and strong personal moral commitment, he has lacked the will and/or leverage to effect the necessary large scale change, and the Corporation has been ineffectual.
Harvard’s CMES, where Harvard task force head Derek Penslar has remained a faculty affiliate, hosted a panel on “Israel’s war on Lebanon” that very likely was antisemitic, according to the IHRA definition the University recently adopted under legal duress.
As with antisemitic statements like Dean Marla Frederick’s address at the Divinity School Convocation--where she endorsed the term Nakba and drew qualified parallels between Israel’s founding and the Holocaust--University leadership has been silent.
.@realDonaldTrump's tariffs are a bully strategy. Bullying doesn’t win over time on the playground or in the international arena. This self-inflicted supply shock is a strategic gift to Xi Jinping. 1/4
Just when inflation is sensitive, it will risk price increases for oil, food, and cars and may lead the @federalreserve needing to raise interest rates. 2/4
Jobs in the industrial heartland will be lost as American producers can’t compete due to higher input costs. Canada and Mexico will lose trust in us and retaliate as their economies suffer. Immigration and drug risks will increase. 3/4
Aside from the general issues about Trump‘s tariff and his economic nationalism strategy, today’s actions against Canada and Mexico are inexplicable and dangerous. 1/8
First, the tariffs will raise prices on automobiles, gasoline, and all kinds of things that people buy. 2/8
Second, as the tariffs are passed on to consumers and then other firms raise prices to match their competitors higher prices, this will hurt American job creation by making American firms less competitive. Much of what we export, involves imported inputs. Cars move back-and-forth across the border between five and ten times during assembly. This makes the whole of North America much less competitive, relative to Europe and Japan. 3/8