Tanvi Ratna Profile picture
Apr 3 21 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Image
Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out. Image
How to push yields down with sticky inflation and cautious Fed?

Manufacture uncertainty.
Sweep in with tariffs, spook the markets, trigger risk-off.
Money exits stocks, floods into long-term Treasuries.

A deliberate “detox” to cool the economy and cut refinancing costs. Image
But cheap refinancing isn’t enough on its own. Even at lower rates, the debt remains enormous.

That’s where the next lever comes in: cutting the deficit.

@elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).
With these savings, the big economic pillar to successfully deliver on @SecScottBessent's 3-3-3 plan is to get growth UP.

Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in
But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.

So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices.
The administration knows this.

That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible.
In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief.

Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.

And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.
Don’t forget: tariffs also bring in revenue.

Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.

That’s not a game-changer on its own, but it gives the Treasury a bit more room to maneuver—especially if paired with deficit cuts. Image
Still, this approach isn’t without risks.

If domestic supply chains can’t catch up, or if global retaliation kicks in, inflation could rise again.

And if that happens, the Fed may be forced to raise rates—which would blow a hole in the low-yield plan. That’s the tightrope.
A common critique is: why impose tariffs before building out the capacity to replace imports?

But that assumes tariffs are the end goal. They’re not.

They’re the starting gun—a way to force movement both inside the U.S. and around the world.
Which brings us to geopolitics.

Before tariffs, Trump’s team signaled a global order reset: pulling back from NATO, cooling EU ties, and opening diplomatic space with Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Tariffs now serve as leverage to renegotiate terms based on America-First policy.
Expect a lot of bilateral deals in the coming months.

Tariffs will be lowered for countries that offer strategic concessions—on trade, security, or industrial policy.

Those that resist? They'll pay higher costs until they decide to come to the table.
China is the focal point.

Observers have long argued: China isn’t a poor country.
It’s a wealthy, high-capacity state that floods markets with exports its currency artificially low.

Tariffs could be used to force big moves like currency appreciation by China.
Lines will be redrawn with other allies too.

Europe may be pushed to cut exposure to China or negotiate on Ukraine.
India may be forced to cut tarriffs and move closer to U.S. alignment.
Mexico and Canada could face demands to crack down on fentanyl trafficking routes.
In the US economy there will be clear winners and losers.

Steel, autos, and textiles are likely to benefit—industries that form Trump’s political base.

But tech, retail, and construction—sectors more reliant on imports—could take a hit, especially in swing states.
That’s the political gamble.

If jobs return fast enough in key states, and inflation remains under control, the tariffs may look like a bold but effective move.

But if prices spike and job creation lags, the strategy could backfire by November 2026.
The Wisconsin seat loss was a warning

Less than 18 months to show results for midterms.
Voters don’t respond to strategems—they respond to prices, jobs and narratives.

FDR had fireside chats, Reagan had Morning in America
Trump needs a similar consistent messaging to Americans
So here’s the big picture:

→ Lower yields ease the debt wall
→ Spending cuts restore fiscal discipline
→ Tariffs jumpstart domestic growth
→ And geopolitics gets rewritten in America’s favor

It’s disruption by design—with enormous stakes.
If it works, it’s a defining success:
→ Debt under control
→ Manufacturing reborn
→ Global leverage restored
→ Trumpism vindicated in 2026

If it fails:
→ Inflation
→ Retaliation
→ Lost midterms
→ Strategic drift

18 months to find out if the gamble pays off.
I’ve spent a decade working at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and technology.

If you found this insightful, follow me here on X & Substack for sharp, no-fluff breakdowns of the forces shaping our world.

tanviratna.substack.com/p/trumps-tarif…
Thanks to a few folks who asked me for pts of clarification:
- A 0.5% drop in 10-year Treasury yields will save about $50 billion in interest payments over 10 years, not $500 billion, per Sec Bessent's rate of $1 billion saving per basis point.
- Currency devaluation could likely be considered after tariffs are renegotiated to make American exports cheaper (not imports). In the current churn, the dollar will appreciate against other currencies, possibly offsetting import price rises. For example, in the 2018-2019 China tariffs, a 17.9% effective tariff increase was partially offset by a 13.7% renminbi depreciation, reducing the net price impact to 4.1%.

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More from @tanvi_ratna

Aug 20
The Russia-India-China axis is heating up—and Trump’s tariffs just turned up the pressure

Indian commentary is stuck debating political postures & intent.

What it's missing is the long game and the difficult economic coercion being forced on all 3 countries.

A breakdown 🧵 Image
India is no pawn.

It has long mastered the art of autonomy—balancing U.S. ties with BRICS overtures.

Now, it’s playing visible alignment moves with Russia and China.

Washington sees this. And is responding with economic precision.
What Indian analysts miss is how surgical the U.S. cuts are becoming.

It’s appears as random tariffs or impulsive posturing.

But is structured pressure across two theaters:

Geoeconomics

Strategic containment

And both are converging on one thing: Russia.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 18
Today’s Trump–Zelensky White House meet will reveal a clash of two worldviews.

In 1971, Kissinger flipped the Cold War by courting China to box in Moscow.

In 2025, Trump attempts a “Reverse Kissinger”: courting Moscow to box in Beijing.

Old guard vs America-First realpolitik. Image
EU leaders back Zelensky’s call for pressure on Russia:

• Territory back
• Sanctions up
• NATO locked in

It’s the old guard —permanent confrontation, open-ended US aid

Trump sees that as a distraction. His bet: use Russia as a wedge to weaken America’s real rival—China
Meanwhile, Russia-China trade hit $136B in 2025 (+27%).

Moscow sells energy + minerals.
Beijing gives tech + capital.
A sanctions-driven marriage.

Trump’s Alaska play: disrupt that axis by dangling US deals—breaking Russia’s over-reliance on China.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 12
The August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska is historic.

Many deemed it impossible.

I studied a six-month dance of moves and countermoves—oil chokepoints, discreet Arctic deals, banking demands, and high-stakes pressure.

Here's what I see made it happen🧵 Image
The story in 4 steps:

1️⃣ Cut into Russia’s oil cashflow
2️⃣ Offer post-war economic carrots
3️⃣ Dial military aid tempo to shape talks
4️⃣ Deliver a revenue shock in August

Every step built the next—ending in Alaska.
Feb 12: Drone strikes and sanctions squeezed Russia’s oil exports—its lifeblood.

Feb 15: G7 made it clear: future sanctions relief would be earned, not automatic.

Sanctions turned from punishment into bargaining chips. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 31
Trump’s 25% tariff on India exposes the Mar-a-Lago logic: U.S. market and military leverage traded for strategic alignment.

India’s ambiguity on Russia frustrates Trump. The BRICS won’t fold.

And the economic flashpoint with India isn’t oil or the dollar. It's beans. 🧵 Image
China welcomed Russia’s call for an RIC (Russia-India-China) bloc in early July.

India hasn’t rejected it.

With direct flights restored and Kailash pilgrimage reopened, India-China ties are thawing—undercutting Trump's binary of allies vs adversaries.
Trump’s proposed 500% tariff on Russia-aligned trade is meant to isolate Moscow via economic deterrence.

But India’s balancing act frustrates the equation.

India in it's well articulated national interest calculus, won’t cut off cheap Russian oil—or halt defense deals.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 29
Critics said Trump’s tariffs would drive Europe into China’s arms.

Instead, EU–China ties are fraying, and Brussels just signed an America-first deal:

15% tariffs, $1 Trillion+ in new commitments — not what the elites expected.

Here’s what most got wrong — and why it matters🧵Image
The new U.S.–EU trade deal comes just days after a "tense" EU–China summit.

Despite intense alarmism, Europe hasn’t turned to Beijing.

It’s moving closer to Washington—on trade, energy, and tech.

The split with China is economic, political, and strategic. Image
At the meeting between 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping and 🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen, tensions were unmistakable:

➤ EU's concerned about the €300B+ trade deficit
➤ While China is not budging on easing market access, unfair subsidies, and support to Russia

The mood? Frosty
Read 10 tweets
Jul 29
Many Critiques of Trump’s Tariff Approach don't land

The just-signed EU-US trade deal comes on the heels of a tense EU-China summit . Despite relentless warnings that Trump’s tariff policy would drive Europe into China’s arms, the reality could scarcely look more different.Image
Many predicted Trump’s tariffs would fracture transatlantic ties and send Europe running to Beijing. That hasn’t happened. Instead, the EU and US are deepening cooperation, with new tariffs, energy deals, and strategic tech commitments.
At the latest summit, China and the EU could barely mask disagreement. Trade deficits, market access, and Beijing’s ties to Russia remain unresolved—and are worsening.
Read 9 tweets

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