Tanvi Ratna Profile picture
Apr 3 21 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Image
Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out. Image
How to push yields down with sticky inflation and cautious Fed?

Manufacture uncertainty.
Sweep in with tariffs, spook the markets, trigger risk-off.
Money exits stocks, floods into long-term Treasuries.

A deliberate “detox” to cool the economy and cut refinancing costs. Image
But cheap refinancing isn’t enough on its own. Even at lower rates, the debt remains enormous.

That’s where the next lever comes in: cutting the deficit.

@elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).
With these savings, the big economic pillar to successfully deliver on @SecScottBessent's 3-3-3 plan is to get growth UP.

Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in
But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.

So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices.
The administration knows this.

That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible.
In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief.

Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.

And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.
Don’t forget: tariffs also bring in revenue.

Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.

That’s not a game-changer on its own, but it gives the Treasury a bit more room to maneuver—especially if paired with deficit cuts. Image
Still, this approach isn’t without risks.

If domestic supply chains can’t catch up, or if global retaliation kicks in, inflation could rise again.

And if that happens, the Fed may be forced to raise rates—which would blow a hole in the low-yield plan. That’s the tightrope.
A common critique is: why impose tariffs before building out the capacity to replace imports?

But that assumes tariffs are the end goal. They’re not.

They’re the starting gun—a way to force movement both inside the U.S. and around the world.
Which brings us to geopolitics.

Before tariffs, Trump’s team signaled a global order reset: pulling back from NATO, cooling EU ties, and opening diplomatic space with Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Tariffs now serve as leverage to renegotiate terms based on America-First policy.
Expect a lot of bilateral deals in the coming months.

Tariffs will be lowered for countries that offer strategic concessions—on trade, security, or industrial policy.

Those that resist? They'll pay higher costs until they decide to come to the table.
China is the focal point.

Observers have long argued: China isn’t a poor country.
It’s a wealthy, high-capacity state that floods markets with exports its currency artificially low.

Tariffs could be used to force big moves like currency appreciation by China.
Lines will be redrawn with other allies too.

Europe may be pushed to cut exposure to China or negotiate on Ukraine.
India may be forced to cut tarriffs and move closer to U.S. alignment.
Mexico and Canada could face demands to crack down on fentanyl trafficking routes.
In the US economy there will be clear winners and losers.

Steel, autos, and textiles are likely to benefit—industries that form Trump’s political base.

But tech, retail, and construction—sectors more reliant on imports—could take a hit, especially in swing states.
That’s the political gamble.

If jobs return fast enough in key states, and inflation remains under control, the tariffs may look like a bold but effective move.

But if prices spike and job creation lags, the strategy could backfire by November 2026.
The Wisconsin seat loss was a warning

Less than 18 months to show results for midterms.
Voters don’t respond to strategems—they respond to prices, jobs and narratives.

FDR had fireside chats, Reagan had Morning in America
Trump needs a similar consistent messaging to Americans
So here’s the big picture:

→ Lower yields ease the debt wall
→ Spending cuts restore fiscal discipline
→ Tariffs jumpstart domestic growth
→ And geopolitics gets rewritten in America’s favor

It’s disruption by design—with enormous stakes.
If it works, it’s a defining success:
→ Debt under control
→ Manufacturing reborn
→ Global leverage restored
→ Trumpism vindicated in 2026

If it fails:
→ Inflation
→ Retaliation
→ Lost midterms
→ Strategic drift

18 months to find out if the gamble pays off.
I’ve spent a decade working at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and technology.

If you found this insightful, follow me here on X & Substack for sharp, no-fluff breakdowns of the forces shaping our world.

tanviratna.substack.com/p/trumps-tarif…
Thanks to a few folks who asked me for pts of clarification:
- A 0.5% drop in 10-year Treasury yields will save about $50 billion in interest payments over 10 years, not $500 billion, per Sec Bessent's rate of $1 billion saving per basis point.
- Currency devaluation could likely be considered after tariffs are renegotiated to make American exports cheaper (not imports). In the current churn, the dollar will appreciate against other currencies, possibly offsetting import price rises. For example, in the 2018-2019 China tariffs, a 17.9% effective tariff increase was partially offset by a 13.7% renminbi depreciation, reducing the net price impact to 4.1%.

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More from @tanvi_ratna

Apr 23
Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵
I’ve been piecing together a puzzle for months—across Trump’s tariff announcements, gold revaluation murmurs, IMF gripes, and Treasury policy.

It has been vaguely called the Mar-a-Lago Accords.

Not a document. Not yet.

But a framework that is absolutely in motion.
Today Bessent didn’t announce the Mar-a-Lago Accords but confirmed the strategy underpinning them.

And make no mistake: this is not policy-by-tweak.

It’s a long-horizon reset of:
→ How America collects revenue
→ How it trades
→ What it defends
→ What it tolerates
Read 19 tweets
Apr 14
🧵The 195D Chessboard: What the Tariff Move Set in Motion

I’ve waited 10 days—not because the dust has fully settled, but for signals.

What began as a bold tariff play has triggered 1st, 2nd & 3rd-order effects—across the monetary system, trade architecture & global alignment. Image
Historically, tariff shocks redirected global capital into Treasuries—lowering yields, strengthening the dollar, and easing U.S. refinancing.

That familiar flight-to-safety pattern has long reinforced Washington’s fiscal leverage.

This time, the response diverged.
From Apr 2–9, the U.S. government’s cost of borrowing jumped (barring lows of Apr 4): 10-year yields spiked from ~4.1% to 4.4%.

A 3 yr bond auction on Apr 8 saw very low demand.

Apr 9, day of the key 10 yr auction, tariffs were scaled down and (then) the auction succeeded. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 7
The global chessboard is finally in motion.

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have landed, and the world has responded. We can now see who’s ready to play in this grand reset—and who isn’t.

Three clear response strategies seem to be emerging. Let's check the updates so far🧵 Image
First, let's recap the tariffs:

-UK, Israel, UAE, Saudi face a 10% baseline.
-Others were slammed: China, Taiwan, Japan, and EU endure steep duties—up to 50%.
-Semiconductors & energy stayed partly sheltered for a lucky few.
-Russia, Cuba, Belarus, North Korea were excluded. Image
RETALIATION STRATEGY

China, Canada, and the European Union occupy the retaliation corner, each countering U.S. tariffs with carefully measured blows.

🇨🇳China moved first, applying 34% duties on American goods and restricting rare earth exports vital to U.S. tech and defense. In parallel, it filed a formal WTO complaint, painting itself as a guardian of rules-based trade—a striking inversion of the usual narrative. Chinese Government launched Anti-Dumping Investigations on U.S. Medical products, Solar panels and EV components. It has also started selling US Treasury bonds to drive up yields (undermining Bessent’s efforts to refinance at lower rates) as well as signaled an intent to weaken the Yuan. Officials are also contemplating a fresh round of stimulus.

🇨🇦Canada’s reaction was similarly firm. Prime Minister Carney dismissed Trump’s move as “very dumb” and slapped 25% tariffs on C$30B of U.S. goods—from everyday grocery staples to motorcycles. Ottawa threatened an even broader barrage if Washington’s new levies remain in force. Canada is also using every legal channel possible, pursuing WTO complaints and invoking the USMCA to challenge the legality of U.S. actions.

🇪🇺For its part, the EU faces a blanket 20% tariff, plus heavier hits on steel, aluminum, and autos. European leaders have responded by preparing a “mirror list” of U.S. products for retaliatory tariffs. Despite the heated rhetoric—calls of “unjustified” and “unprovoked”—EU officials are not acting purely out of indignation. Each countermeasure is strategic, targeting iconic American industries (think bourbon or Harley-Davidson) to pressure U.S. political constituencies.
Interestingly, beneath the EU’s tough talk lies a sense of nostalgia for a rules-based global trade order. But cracks are visible. Some member states, reeling from economic pressures, have grown more ambivalent about globalism. It’s telling that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer openly declared, “Globalization is dead,” underscoring how mainstream that sentiment has become.

In short, retaliation from these major players is neither impulsive nor purely symbolic. Whether it’s China presenting itself as the “rule-abider,” Canada lining up economic counters, or the EU grappling with its own fragmentation, each move aims to reshape U.S. calculations—and strengthen the retaliators’ negotiating hand. The irony, of course, is that Washington once championed the very multilateral norms these nations now uphold.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 11
America is redrawing the battlelines for AI policy

Having worked on AI policy worldwide, I've observed firsthand the global push on AI safety.

Now, VP JD Vance says the US is pivoting to acceleration.
How will this influence markets & geopolitics?
Join our XSpace to explore🧵
Here's a thread of how AI policy across jurisdictions was overwhelmingly focused on safety so far Image
USA: AI Safety v. AI Supremacy

• Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights (2022) – Ethical AI principles, no hard laws
• Biden’s AI Executive Order (2023) – First major AI safety enforcement in the US.

The EO received criticism for being overburdensome but is now repealed.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 20
I dug into President Trump’s Executive Orders on Immigration so you don’t have to.

From a national emergency, to military at the border, to cartels labeled as terrorists, many legal plays have been invoked.

Here’s all you need to know (and why it’s a BIG deal) 🧵 Image
1/ The National Emergencies Act (NEA)
The NEA (1976) gives the POTUS sweeping powers to respond to crises. Trump has invoked the NEA to counter criminal gangs & illegal immigration- allowing reallocation of federal funds (bypassing Congress) to expedite border security measures.
2/ Trump's History with the NEA
This isn’t Trump’s first NEA invocation for border security. In 2019, he declared an emergency to reallocate $8.1B from military projects to the border wall. Now he's intensifying the focus on cartel violence and criminal migrant surges.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
Breakdown of all components of #cryptocurrency #tax in #Budget2022 🧵

4 major provisions proposed, effective at different points in time:
1. New Income Tax scheme 115BBH
2. New TDS clause 194S
3. Gifting of #crypto taxed as property
4. Sweeping definitions of crypto assets
Income Tax:

New Scheme 115BBH (effective 1 April 2023)

Any income generated from transfer of any virtual asset will be taxed at 30%. There will be no deductions or offsets allowed. There will be no carry forward of losses into subsequent assessment years.
TDS:

New clause 194S (effective 1 July 2022)

Levy of 1% TDS on all transactions with a clear intent to tax more or "widen the tax base".
Read 6 tweets

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