Tanvi Ratna Profile picture
Apr 3 21 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Image
Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out. Image
How to push yields down with sticky inflation and cautious Fed?

Manufacture uncertainty.
Sweep in with tariffs, spook the markets, trigger risk-off.
Money exits stocks, floods into long-term Treasuries.

A deliberate “detox” to cool the economy and cut refinancing costs. Image
But cheap refinancing isn’t enough on its own. Even at lower rates, the debt remains enormous.

That’s where the next lever comes in: cutting the deficit.

@elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).
With these savings, the big economic pillar to successfully deliver on @SecScottBessent's 3-3-3 plan is to get growth UP.

Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in
But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.

So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices.
The administration knows this.

That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible.
In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief.

Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.

And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.
Don’t forget: tariffs also bring in revenue.

Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.

That’s not a game-changer on its own, but it gives the Treasury a bit more room to maneuver—especially if paired with deficit cuts. Image
Still, this approach isn’t without risks.

If domestic supply chains can’t catch up, or if global retaliation kicks in, inflation could rise again.

And if that happens, the Fed may be forced to raise rates—which would blow a hole in the low-yield plan. That’s the tightrope.
A common critique is: why impose tariffs before building out the capacity to replace imports?

But that assumes tariffs are the end goal. They’re not.

They’re the starting gun—a way to force movement both inside the U.S. and around the world.
Which brings us to geopolitics.

Before tariffs, Trump’s team signaled a global order reset: pulling back from NATO, cooling EU ties, and opening diplomatic space with Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Tariffs now serve as leverage to renegotiate terms based on America-First policy.
Expect a lot of bilateral deals in the coming months.

Tariffs will be lowered for countries that offer strategic concessions—on trade, security, or industrial policy.

Those that resist? They'll pay higher costs until they decide to come to the table.
China is the focal point.

Observers have long argued: China isn’t a poor country.
It’s a wealthy, high-capacity state that floods markets with exports its currency artificially low.

Tariffs could be used to force big moves like currency appreciation by China.
Lines will be redrawn with other allies too.

Europe may be pushed to cut exposure to China or negotiate on Ukraine.
India may be forced to cut tarriffs and move closer to U.S. alignment.
Mexico and Canada could face demands to crack down on fentanyl trafficking routes.
In the US economy there will be clear winners and losers.

Steel, autos, and textiles are likely to benefit—industries that form Trump’s political base.

But tech, retail, and construction—sectors more reliant on imports—could take a hit, especially in swing states.
That’s the political gamble.

If jobs return fast enough in key states, and inflation remains under control, the tariffs may look like a bold but effective move.

But if prices spike and job creation lags, the strategy could backfire by November 2026.
The Wisconsin seat loss was a warning

Less than 18 months to show results for midterms.
Voters don’t respond to strategems—they respond to prices, jobs and narratives.

FDR had fireside chats, Reagan had Morning in America
Trump needs a similar consistent messaging to Americans
So here’s the big picture:

→ Lower yields ease the debt wall
→ Spending cuts restore fiscal discipline
→ Tariffs jumpstart domestic growth
→ And geopolitics gets rewritten in America’s favor

It’s disruption by design—with enormous stakes.
If it works, it’s a defining success:
→ Debt under control
→ Manufacturing reborn
→ Global leverage restored
→ Trumpism vindicated in 2026

If it fails:
→ Inflation
→ Retaliation
→ Lost midterms
→ Strategic drift

18 months to find out if the gamble pays off.
I’ve spent a decade working at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and technology.

If you found this insightful, follow me here on X & Substack for sharp, no-fluff breakdowns of the forces shaping our world.

tanviratna.substack.com/p/trumps-tarif…
Thanks to a few folks who asked me for pts of clarification:
- A 0.5% drop in 10-year Treasury yields will save about $50 billion in interest payments over 10 years, not $500 billion, per Sec Bessent's rate of $1 billion saving per basis point.
- Currency devaluation could likely be considered after tariffs are renegotiated to make American exports cheaper (not imports). In the current churn, the dollar will appreciate against other currencies, possibly offsetting import price rises. For example, in the 2018-2019 China tariffs, a 17.9% effective tariff increase was partially offset by a 13.7% renminbi depreciation, reducing the net price impact to 4.1%.

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More from @tanvi_ratna

Feb 11
America is redrawing the battlelines for AI policy

Having worked on AI policy worldwide, I've observed firsthand the global push on AI safety.

Now, VP JD Vance says the US is pivoting to acceleration.
How will this influence markets & geopolitics?
Join our XSpace to explore🧵
Here's a thread of how AI policy across jurisdictions was overwhelmingly focused on safety so far Image
USA: AI Safety v. AI Supremacy

• Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights (2022) – Ethical AI principles, no hard laws
• Biden’s AI Executive Order (2023) – First major AI safety enforcement in the US.

The EO received criticism for being overburdensome but is now repealed.
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Jan 20
I dug into President Trump’s Executive Orders on Immigration so you don’t have to.

From a national emergency, to military at the border, to cartels labeled as terrorists, many legal plays have been invoked.

Here’s all you need to know (and why it’s a BIG deal) 🧵 Image
1/ The National Emergencies Act (NEA)
The NEA (1976) gives the POTUS sweeping powers to respond to crises. Trump has invoked the NEA to counter criminal gangs & illegal immigration- allowing reallocation of federal funds (bypassing Congress) to expedite border security measures.
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Feb 1, 2022
Breakdown of all components of #cryptocurrency #tax in #Budget2022 🧵

4 major provisions proposed, effective at different points in time:
1. New Income Tax scheme 115BBH
2. New TDS clause 194S
3. Gifting of #crypto taxed as property
4. Sweeping definitions of crypto assets
Income Tax:

New Scheme 115BBH (effective 1 April 2023)

Any income generated from transfer of any virtual asset will be taxed at 30%. There will be no deductions or offsets allowed. There will be no carry forward of losses into subsequent assessment years.
TDS:

New clause 194S (effective 1 July 2022)

Levy of 1% TDS on all transactions with a clear intent to tax more or "widen the tax base".
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
🚨Thread 🚨answering questions on India's #Budget2022 #crypto #CBDC announcements (send me Qs here)

Q1. Does taxation mean a recognition of the legality of crypto?
What is legal & isn't will be decided by the India Crypto Bill, which hasn't been tabled yet. This is a deterrent..
The #India #crypto #bill was expected to be tabled in final form in this budget session. It might be so if the cabinet clears it but the bill is expected to be finalized by May. The motivations behind today's announcement is not clarity per se but signaling:
1. A high #tax rate and no loss offsets signals the government's intent to deter #crypto trading activity.

2. #TDS reporting signals their intent to expedite data gathering around crypto transactions.

3. Signal an intent to regulate as many sessions have gone by without a bill
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7, 2021
India's #crypto arc in a global perspective: India lags the world by an average of 2-3 years in terms of #crypto #regulatory framework development. We are now on the 3rd Inter-Ministerial Committee on crypto. Some pts from my session at #HODLConference2021 @IAMAIForum
India's adoption of #cryptocurrency is ramping up exponentially, signalling a clear demand for these tokens in the country. India recently ranked a whopping second on Chainalysis's Global #Crypto Adoption Index @chainalysis @SEBI_India @nsitharaman @RBI @NPCI_NPCI
However, the market cap of #India #crypto projects are approx. $12 billion USD which is a small fraction of the global market cap which stands at approx. $2 trillion USD @0xPolygon @WazirXIndia @PersistenceOne @QuickswapDEX @FrontierDotXYZ @UniLend_Finance @TheMahaDAO
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Jan 5, 2021
The latest #OCC guidance allowing settlement through #stablecoins is exciting but with many side effects. There are threads that link it to the #Bitcoin price and ATHs, #Tether ,#Libra , #JPMorgan #WallStreet , #DCEP. I'm watching out for 6 aspects 👇1/n
1 - What most have caught on to is that stablecoins getting linked to banks will eventually make them more regulated and justify full AML/KYC disclosures. This will eventually be required everywhere, not just in the US. Another impact would be on reserve management..2/n
2 - There are few credible audits on the reserves of stablecoins. This will have implications for the #Bitcoin price. Many are aware that Bitcoin rice pumps are often correlated to heavy #Tether minting and movements from whale wallets. 3/n
Read 12 tweets

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