The gold and silver crash wasn’t a coordinated plot by Wall Street or governments.

Kevin Warsh wasn’t the cause — just the match.

As Ray Dalio warned, capital wars are here — and we likely just witnessed one.

The sequence matters. I’ll walk through it 🧵 For decades, global finance ran on one quiet habit:

Japan lent money for free.

Borrow yen at ~0%.
Buy anything else.
Keep the spread.

Hedge funds, pensions, commodities — trillions leaned on this.

Japan was the rich grandmother who never asked for it back.

Everyone says Venezuela is about oil, gold, and rare earths

But the math doesn't math. Each burns billions for America and goes nowhere fast

Instead, the true White House strategy seems far more novel. They aren't lying—but it's also not what you think 👇🧵 2/ To understand this better first let's delve into each resource.

To monetize a resource you need: verified geology → secure sites → power/logistics → enforceable contracts → processing/export routes → years of capex.

Venezuela fails that chain across almost everything.

Of all the clips from Trump’s 60 Minutes interview, one stands out for policy:

“We can be bigger, better, stronger just working with [China] rather than knocking them out.”

China was one of Washington’s last bipartisan consensus. Has the view changed? Some signals 👇🧵 Key security think tank - RAND’s October 2025 report surprised many. Once hawkish on China, it now calls for “muted rivalry,” urging engagement over escalation and pressing Taiwan toward restraint.

Everyone’s debating who won the Xi–Trump summit.

But won what? Tariffs? Soybeans? Optics?

The true contest is over future capacity — and the scoreboard isn’t linear.

China plays for throughput.
America plays for time.

Here's the asymmetry that actually matters 🧵 The U.S. controls stacked chokepoints:

EDA software (Synopsys, Cadence)

Lithography (ASML, Applied Materials)

AI chips (Nvidia, AMD, Intel)

If China falls behind in just one, it stalls in the stack.
America then doesn’t just lead — it compounds ahead.

The U.S. isn’t rebuilding China’s rare-earth empire — it’s leapfrogging it.

Science, finance & alliances are converging into a multi-pronged strategy that could compress decades into years

The membrane story was just the start..🧵

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1983496591630541017

U.S. labs are rewriting the chemistry.

Membranes & protein binders can bypass solvent extraction — and now, proof is scaling:

@ucore (UURAF) has processed 4k tons under a DoD grant and is building a Louisiana plant by 2026

If it works, China’s moat is hit hard

In June, I was first to say Trump’s Gaza Riviera pitch wasn’t cosmetic—it was core to IMEC, an economic corridor to counter China's Belt & Road.

Some called it a stretch. But the Gaza rebuild strategy confirms it.

Gaza will be wired for investor-grade trade, not just rebuilt🧵 For context, revisit my June thread—where I linked Trump’s Gaza play to IMEC’s stalled spine. The corridor needed Gaza stable to restart.

Since then, every move has aligned: coalitions formed, plans advanced. It isn't just about the hostages.

https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1935381551866593339

SEISMIC: Jerome Powell just scrapped the 2020 "average inflation targeting" playbook.

Now, 2% inflation means 2%—no intentional overshoot.

This shift rewrites central banking orthodoxy and signals the end of the easy-money era post-2008.

This changes policy and markets 🧵 The last framework allowed inflation overshoots to "make up" for past misses.

That misfire precipitated inflation spikes of 9.1% in 2022—highest in 40 years.

Powell’s reset restores inflation as a ceiling, not an average.

The Russia-India-China axis is heating up—and Trump’s tariffs just turned up the pressure

Indian commentary is stuck debating political postures & intent.

What it's missing is the long game and the difficult economic coercion being forced on all 3 countries.

A breakdown 🧵 India is no pawn.

It has long mastered the art of autonomy—balancing U.S. ties with BRICS overtures.

Now, it’s playing visible alignment moves with Russia and China.

Washington sees this. And is responding with economic precision.

Today’s Trump–Zelensky White House meet will reveal a clash of two worldviews.

In 1971, Kissinger flipped the Cold War by courting China to box in Moscow.

In 2025, Trump attempts a “Reverse Kissinger”: courting Moscow to box in Beijing.

Old guard vs America-First realpolitik. EU leaders back Zelensky’s call for pressure on Russia:

• Territory back
• Sanctions up
• NATO locked in

It’s the old guard —permanent confrontation, open-ended US aid

Trump sees that as a distraction. His bet: use Russia as a wedge to weaken America’s real rival—China

The August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska is historic.

Many deemed it impossible.

I studied a six-month dance of moves and countermoves—oil chokepoints, discreet Arctic deals, banking demands, and high-stakes pressure.

Here's what I see made it happen🧵 The story in 4 steps:

1️⃣ Cut into Russia’s oil cashflow
2️⃣ Offer post-war economic carrots
3️⃣ Dial military aid tempo to shape talks
4️⃣ Deliver a revenue shock in August

Every step built the next—ending in Alaska.

Trump’s 25% tariff on India exposes the Mar-a-Lago logic: U.S. market and military leverage traded for strategic alignment.

India’s ambiguity on Russia frustrates Trump. The BRICS won’t fold.

And the economic flashpoint with India isn’t oil or the dollar. It's beans. 🧵 China welcomed Russia’s call for an RIC (Russia-India-China) bloc in early July.

India hasn’t rejected it.

With direct flights restored and Kailash pilgrimage reopened, India-China ties are thawing—undercutting Trump's binary of allies vs adversaries.

Critics said Trump’s tariffs would drive Europe into China’s arms.

Instead, EU–China ties are fraying, and Brussels just signed an America-first deal:

15% tariffs, $1 Trillion+ in new commitments — not what the elites expected.

Here’s what most got wrong — and why it matters🧵 The new U.S.–EU trade deal comes just days after a "tense" EU–China summit.

Despite intense alarmism, Europe hasn’t turned to Beijing.

It’s moving closer to Washington—on trade, energy, and tech.

The split with China is economic, political, and strategic.

Many Critiques of Trump’s Tariff Approach don't land

The just-signed EU-US trade deal comes on the heels of a tense EU-China summit . Despite relentless warnings that Trump’s tariff policy would drive Europe into China’s arms, the reality could scarcely look more different. Many predicted Trump’s tariffs would fracture transatlantic ties and send Europe running to Beijing. That hasn’t happened. Instead, the EU and US are deepening cooperation, with new tariffs, energy deals, and strategic tech commitments.

Is 'deglobalization' real?

Or are we witnessing a different kind of globalization—rebuilt around leverage, supply chain hedging, and strategic control?

Since the Tariffs 2.0 deadline is here, let's check on where the U.S. deals stand and what’s brewing🧵 The Global Trade System Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Mutating

President Trump is now sending "letters" to U.S. allies and trade partners: renegotiate deals ASAP or pay "fair" tariffs WEF 1 Aug

This looks like a controlled, transactional globalization with national advantage baked in

Trump promised no new wars

Yet his actions on Iran-Israel baffle many:
- Court, then threaten Iran
- Ignore Israel in his Middle East trip
- Cut a deal with Pakistan over India
- A Trump Tower in Gaza

DC Deep State? Or also Trump's calculus on a trade corridor rivaling China🧵 Beneath the surface of Trump’s moves appears to be an initiative most still don’t know exists:

IMEC: the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor

A trade corridor designed to bypass China & rival the Belt and Road Initiative.

Unveiled at the 2023 G20. It stalled - on Gaza.

Is there a rift between Elon and White House?
Or a strategic pivot?

As tariff math stalls & low-tax hopes fade, GDP growth is the only game

That hinges on hi-tech sectors

As the US-China Race enters its critical phase-
Musk stands as America’s best industrial counterweight🧵 We’re at an inflection point in the US-China battle for global market share in sunrise sectors:
🧠 AI
⚡️EVs
🔋 Batteries
🤖 Robotics
🚕 Robotaxis
🚀 Space

The future of GDP growth & national security rides on these domains.

Elon is at the nerve center of this competition.

The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” is a megabundle of policy pivots: tax cuts 2.0, slashing social programs, raising tariffs, federalizing AI, and supercharging “Made in America.”

It shifts costs, rewires entitlements, and stakes out America’s economic reset.

Here’s what’s inside🧵 Immigration

The bill strips undocumented migrants of Medicaid, while hiking DHS border funding.

Expect fewer entrants, tighter state health budgets, and a ramp-up of physical and legal deterrence at the border.

A high-visibility pivot with heavy fiscal consequences.

Is the Gulf the next EU?

President Trump's first major 2025 foreign tour is to GCC countries, not Brussels or Beijing. Why? His chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff says: "The Gulf is highly undervalued. Europe is dysfunctional. If Gulf countries unite, they could surpass Europe." Witkoff’s read: this isn’t a traditional Middle East cycle.

He points to:
→ Young Gulf leadership focused on commerce
→ Heavy economic diversification from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha
→ Tech innovation of Israel and hubs like NEOM and Dubai.

Think the India-Pakistan flare-up has nothing to do with the U.S.? That’s a mistake.

Follow the weapons. Follow the money.
It leads to NATO, USAID & rogue U.S. intel.

There are many threads—today, we go down one: the secret Ukraine-Pakistan arms deal🧵 Let’s start with the money.
@MikeBenzCyber said: “we’ve been funding all the terror groups in Pakistan”

USAID was funding:
— $40 million/week to the Taliban
— $122 million to ISIS

India’s FAFO moment

The terror attack on Hindus in Kashmir, esp amidst VP Vance's visit, has flared up one of the world’s most sensitive regions.

India is planning a decisive retaliation.
And the US administration has offered its full support.

Here's what you need to know🧵 Pahalgam Massacre [April 22, 2025] was a chilling, religiously targeted assault.

"Terrorists asked the name and religion of males, forced to strip their pants to check circumcision, and shot them” says a survivor.

Some local on-ground operatives seem to have been involved.

https://x.com/indiatv/status/1914912128651419792

Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵 I’ve been piecing together a puzzle for months—across Trump’s tariff announcements, gold revaluation murmurs, IMF gripes, and Treasury policy.

It has been vaguely called the Mar-a-Lago Accords.

Not a document. Not yet.

But a framework that is absolutely in motion.