The August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska is historic.

Many deemed it impossible.

I studied a six-month dance of moves and countermoves—oil chokepoints, discreet Arctic deals, banking demands, and high-stakes pressure.

Here's what I see made it happen🧵 The story in 4 steps:

1️⃣ Cut into Russia’s oil cashflow
2️⃣ Offer post-war economic carrots
3️⃣ Dial military aid tempo to shape talks
4️⃣ Deliver a revenue shock in August

Every step built the next—ending in Alaska.

Trump’s 25% tariff on India exposes the Mar-a-Lago logic: U.S. market and military leverage traded for strategic alignment.

India’s ambiguity on Russia frustrates Trump. The BRICS won’t fold.

And the economic flashpoint with India isn’t oil or the dollar. It's beans. 🧵 China welcomed Russia’s call for an RIC (Russia-India-China) bloc in early July.

India hasn’t rejected it.

With direct flights restored and Kailash pilgrimage reopened, India-China ties are thawing—undercutting Trump's binary of allies vs adversaries.

Critics said Trump’s tariffs would drive Europe into China’s arms.

Instead, EU–China ties are fraying, and Brussels just signed an America-first deal:

15% tariffs, $1 Trillion+ in new commitments — not what the elites expected.

Here’s what most got wrong — and why it matters🧵 The new U.S.–EU trade deal comes just days after a "tense" EU–China summit.

Despite intense alarmism, Europe hasn’t turned to Beijing.

It’s moving closer to Washington—on trade, energy, and tech.

The split with China is economic, political, and strategic.

Many Critiques of Trump’s Tariff Approach don't land

The just-signed EU-US trade deal comes on the heels of a tense EU-China summit . Despite relentless warnings that Trump’s tariff policy would drive Europe into China’s arms, the reality could scarcely look more different. Many predicted Trump’s tariffs would fracture transatlantic ties and send Europe running to Beijing. That hasn’t happened. Instead, the EU and US are deepening cooperation, with new tariffs, energy deals, and strategic tech commitments.

Is 'deglobalization' real?

Or are we witnessing a different kind of globalization—rebuilt around leverage, supply chain hedging, and strategic control?

Since the Tariffs 2.0 deadline is here, let's check on where the U.S. deals stand and what’s brewing🧵 The Global Trade System Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Mutating

President Trump is now sending "letters" to U.S. allies and trade partners: renegotiate deals ASAP or pay "fair" tariffs WEF 1 Aug

This looks like a controlled, transactional globalization with national advantage baked in

Trump promised no new wars

Yet his actions on Iran-Israel baffle many:
- Court, then threaten Iran
- Ignore Israel in his Middle East trip
- Cut a deal with Pakistan over India
- A Trump Tower in Gaza

DC Deep State? Or also Trump's calculus on a trade corridor rivaling China🧵 Beneath the surface of Trump’s moves appears to be an initiative most still don’t know exists:

IMEC: the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor

A trade corridor designed to bypass China & rival the Belt and Road Initiative.

Unveiled at the 2023 G20. It stalled - on Gaza.

Is there a rift between Elon and White House?
Or a strategic pivot?

As tariff math stalls & low-tax hopes fade, GDP growth is the only game

That hinges on hi-tech sectors

As the US-China Race enters its critical phase-
Musk stands as America’s best industrial counterweight🧵 We’re at an inflection point in the US-China battle for global market share in sunrise sectors:
🧠 AI
⚡️EVs
🔋 Batteries
🤖 Robotics
🚕 Robotaxis
🚀 Space

The future of GDP growth & national security rides on these domains.

Elon is at the nerve center of this competition.

The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” is a megabundle of policy pivots: tax cuts 2.0, slashing social programs, raising tariffs, federalizing AI, and supercharging “Made in America.”

It shifts costs, rewires entitlements, and stakes out America’s economic reset.

Here’s what’s inside🧵 Immigration

The bill strips undocumented migrants of Medicaid, while hiking DHS border funding.

Expect fewer entrants, tighter state health budgets, and a ramp-up of physical and legal deterrence at the border.

A high-visibility pivot with heavy fiscal consequences.

Is the Gulf the next EU?

President Trump's first major 2025 foreign tour is to GCC countries, not Brussels or Beijing. Why? His chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff says: "The Gulf is highly undervalued. Europe is dysfunctional. If Gulf countries unite, they could surpass Europe." Witkoff’s read: this isn’t a traditional Middle East cycle.

He points to:
→ Young Gulf leadership focused on commerce
→ Heavy economic diversification from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha
→ Tech innovation of Israel and hubs like NEOM and Dubai.

Think the India-Pakistan flare-up has nothing to do with the U.S.? That’s a mistake.

Follow the weapons. Follow the money.
It leads to NATO, USAID & rogue U.S. intel.

There are many threads—today, we go down one: the secret Ukraine-Pakistan arms deal🧵 Let’s start with the money.
@MikeBenzCyber said: “we’ve been funding all the terror groups in Pakistan”

USAID was funding:
— $40 million/week to the Taliban
— $122 million to ISIS

India’s FAFO moment

The terror attack on Hindus in Kashmir, esp amidst VP Vance's visit, has flared up one of the world’s most sensitive regions.

India is planning a decisive retaliation.
And the US administration has offered its full support.

Here's what you need to know🧵 Pahalgam Massacre [April 22, 2025] was a chilling, religiously targeted assault.

"Terrorists asked the name and religion of males, forced to strip their pants to check circumcision, and shot them” says a survivor.

Some local on-ground operatives seem to have been involved.

https://x.com/indiatv/status/1914912128651419792

Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵 I’ve been piecing together a puzzle for months—across Trump’s tariff announcements, gold revaluation murmurs, IMF gripes, and Treasury policy.

It has been vaguely called the Mar-a-Lago Accords.

Not a document. Not yet.

But a framework that is absolutely in motion.

🧵The 195D Chessboard: What the Tariff Move Set in Motion

I’ve waited 10 days—not because the dust has fully settled, but for signals.

What began as a bold tariff play has triggered 1st, 2nd & 3rd-order effects—across the monetary system, trade architecture & global alignment.

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865

Historically, tariff shocks redirected global capital into Treasuries—lowering yields, strengthening the dollar, and easing U.S. refinancing.

That familiar flight-to-safety pattern has long reinforced Washington’s fiscal leverage.

This time, the response diverged.

The global chessboard is finally in motion.

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have landed, and the world has responded. We can now see who’s ready to play in this grand reset—and who isn’t.

Three clear response strategies seem to be emerging. Let's check the updates so far🧵 First, let's recap the tariffs:

-UK, Israel, UAE, Saudi face a 10% baseline.
-Others were slammed: China, Taiwan, Japan, and EU endure steep duties—up to 50%.
-Semiconductors & energy stayed partly sheltered for a lucky few.
-Russia, Cuba, Belarus, North Korea were excluded.

Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out.

America is redrawing the battlelines for AI policy

Having worked on AI policy worldwide, I've observed firsthand the global push on AI safety.

Now, VP JD Vance says the US is pivoting to acceleration.
How will this influence markets & geopolitics?
Join our XSpace to explore🧵

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1889180588738781674

Here's a thread of how AI policy across jurisdictions was overwhelmingly focused on safety so far

I dug into President Trump’s Executive Orders on Immigration so you don’t have to.

From a national emergency, to military at the border, to cartels labeled as terrorists, many legal plays have been invoked.

Here’s all you need to know (and why it’s a BIG deal) 🧵 1/ The National Emergencies Act (NEA)
The NEA (1976) gives the POTUS sweeping powers to respond to crises. Trump has invoked the NEA to counter criminal gangs & illegal immigration- allowing reallocation of federal funds (bypassing Congress) to expedite border security measures.

Breakdown of all components of #cryptocurrency #tax in #Budget2022 🧵

4 major provisions proposed, effective at different points in time:
1. New Income Tax scheme 115BBH
2. New TDS clause 194S
3. Gifting of #crypto taxed as property
4. Sweeping definitions of crypto assets Income Tax:

New Scheme 115BBH (effective 1 April 2023)

Any income generated from transfer of any virtual asset will be taxed at 30%. There will be no deductions or offsets allowed. There will be no carry forward of losses into subsequent assessment years.

🚨Thread 🚨answering questions on India's #Budget2022 #crypto #CBDC announcements (send me Qs here)

Q1. Does taxation mean a recognition of the legality of crypto?
What is legal & isn't will be decided by the India Crypto Bill, which hasn't been tabled yet. This is a deterrent..

https://twitter.com/rishabhmansur2/status/1488411292113063941

The #India #crypto #bill was expected to be tabled in final form in this budget session. It might be so if the cabinet clears it but the bill is expected to be finalized by May. The motivations behind today's announcement is not clarity per se but signaling:

India's #crypto arc in a global perspective: India lags the world by an average of 2-3 years in terms of #crypto #regulatory framework development. We are now on the 3rd Inter-Ministerial Committee on crypto. Some pts from my session at #HODLConference2021 @IAMAIForum India's adoption of #cryptocurrency is ramping up exponentially, signalling a clear demand for these tokens in the country. India recently ranked a whopping second on Chainalysis's Global #Crypto Adoption Index @chainalysis @SEBI_India @nsitharaman @RBI @NPCI_NPCI

The latest #OCC guidance allowing settlement through #stablecoins is exciting but with many side effects. There are threads that link it to the #Bitcoin price and ATHs, #Tether ,#Libra , #JPMorgan #WallStreet , #DCEP. I'm watching out for 6 aspects 👇1/n 1 - What most have caught on to is that stablecoins getting linked to banks will eventually make them more regulated and justify full AML/KYC disclosures. This will eventually be required everywhere, not just in the US. Another impact would be on reserve management..2/n