In June, I was first to say Trump’s Gaza Riviera pitch wasn’t cosmetic—it was core to IMEC, an economic corridor to counter China's Belt & Road.

Some called it a stretch. But the Gaza rebuild strategy confirms it.

Gaza will be wired for investor-grade trade, not just rebuilt🧵 For context, revisit my June thread—where I linked Trump’s Gaza play to IMEC’s stalled spine. The corridor needed Gaza stable to restart.

Since then, every move has aligned: coalitions formed, plans advanced. It isn't just about the hostages.

https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1935381551866593339

SEISMIC: Jerome Powell just scrapped the 2020 "average inflation targeting" playbook.

Now, 2% inflation means 2%—no intentional overshoot.

This shift rewrites central banking orthodoxy and signals the end of the easy-money era post-2008.

This changes policy and markets 🧵 The last framework allowed inflation overshoots to "make up" for past misses.

That misfire precipitated inflation spikes of 9.1% in 2022—highest in 40 years.

Powell’s reset restores inflation as a ceiling, not an average.

The Russia-India-China axis is heating up—and Trump’s tariffs just turned up the pressure

Indian commentary is stuck debating political postures & intent.

What it's missing is the long game and the difficult economic coercion being forced on all 3 countries.

A breakdown 🧵 India is no pawn.

It has long mastered the art of autonomy—balancing U.S. ties with BRICS overtures.

Now, it’s playing visible alignment moves with Russia and China.

Washington sees this. And is responding with economic precision.

Today’s Trump–Zelensky White House meet will reveal a clash of two worldviews.

In 1971, Kissinger flipped the Cold War by courting China to box in Moscow.

In 2025, Trump attempts a “Reverse Kissinger”: courting Moscow to box in Beijing.

Old guard vs America-First realpolitik. EU leaders back Zelensky’s call for pressure on Russia:

• Territory back
• Sanctions up
• NATO locked in

It’s the old guard —permanent confrontation, open-ended US aid

Trump sees that as a distraction. His bet: use Russia as a wedge to weaken America’s real rival—China

The August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska is historic.

Many deemed it impossible.

I studied a six-month dance of moves and countermoves—oil chokepoints, discreet Arctic deals, banking demands, and high-stakes pressure.

Here's what I see made it happen🧵 The story in 4 steps:

1️⃣ Cut into Russia’s oil cashflow
2️⃣ Offer post-war economic carrots
3️⃣ Dial military aid tempo to shape talks
4️⃣ Deliver a revenue shock in August

Every step built the next—ending in Alaska.

Trump’s 25% tariff on India exposes the Mar-a-Lago logic: U.S. market and military leverage traded for strategic alignment.

India’s ambiguity on Russia frustrates Trump. The BRICS won’t fold.

And the economic flashpoint with India isn’t oil or the dollar. It's beans. 🧵 China welcomed Russia’s call for an RIC (Russia-India-China) bloc in early July.

India hasn’t rejected it.

With direct flights restored and Kailash pilgrimage reopened, India-China ties are thawing—undercutting Trump's binary of allies vs adversaries.

Critics said Trump’s tariffs would drive Europe into China’s arms.

Instead, EU–China ties are fraying, and Brussels just signed an America-first deal:

15% tariffs, $1 Trillion+ in new commitments — not what the elites expected.

Here’s what most got wrong — and why it matters🧵 The new U.S.–EU trade deal comes just days after a "tense" EU–China summit.

Despite intense alarmism, Europe hasn’t turned to Beijing.

It’s moving closer to Washington—on trade, energy, and tech.

The split with China is economic, political, and strategic.

Many Critiques of Trump’s Tariff Approach don't land

The just-signed EU-US trade deal comes on the heels of a tense EU-China summit . Despite relentless warnings that Trump’s tariff policy would drive Europe into China’s arms, the reality could scarcely look more different. Many predicted Trump’s tariffs would fracture transatlantic ties and send Europe running to Beijing. That hasn’t happened. Instead, the EU and US are deepening cooperation, with new tariffs, energy deals, and strategic tech commitments.

Is 'deglobalization' real?

Or are we witnessing a different kind of globalization—rebuilt around leverage, supply chain hedging, and strategic control?

Since the Tariffs 2.0 deadline is here, let's check on where the U.S. deals stand and what’s brewing🧵 The Global Trade System Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Mutating

President Trump is now sending "letters" to U.S. allies and trade partners: renegotiate deals ASAP or pay "fair" tariffs WEF 1 Aug

This looks like a controlled, transactional globalization with national advantage baked in

Trump promised no new wars

Yet his actions on Iran-Israel baffle many:
- Court, then threaten Iran
- Ignore Israel in his Middle East trip
- Cut a deal with Pakistan over India
- A Trump Tower in Gaza

DC Deep State? Or also Trump's calculus on a trade corridor rivaling China🧵 Beneath the surface of Trump’s moves appears to be an initiative most still don’t know exists:

IMEC: the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor

A trade corridor designed to bypass China & rival the Belt and Road Initiative.

Unveiled at the 2023 G20. It stalled - on Gaza.

Is there a rift between Elon and White House?
Or a strategic pivot?

As tariff math stalls & low-tax hopes fade, GDP growth is the only game

That hinges on hi-tech sectors

As the US-China Race enters its critical phase-
Musk stands as America’s best industrial counterweight🧵 We’re at an inflection point in the US-China battle for global market share in sunrise sectors:
🧠 AI
⚡️EVs
🔋 Batteries
🤖 Robotics
🚕 Robotaxis
🚀 Space

The future of GDP growth & national security rides on these domains.

Elon is at the nerve center of this competition.

The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” is a megabundle of policy pivots: tax cuts 2.0, slashing social programs, raising tariffs, federalizing AI, and supercharging “Made in America.”

It shifts costs, rewires entitlements, and stakes out America’s economic reset.

Here’s what’s inside🧵 Immigration

The bill strips undocumented migrants of Medicaid, while hiking DHS border funding.

Expect fewer entrants, tighter state health budgets, and a ramp-up of physical and legal deterrence at the border.

A high-visibility pivot with heavy fiscal consequences.

Is the Gulf the next EU?

President Trump's first major 2025 foreign tour is to GCC countries, not Brussels or Beijing. Why? His chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff says: "The Gulf is highly undervalued. Europe is dysfunctional. If Gulf countries unite, they could surpass Europe." Witkoff’s read: this isn’t a traditional Middle East cycle.

He points to:
→ Young Gulf leadership focused on commerce
→ Heavy economic diversification from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha
→ Tech innovation of Israel and hubs like NEOM and Dubai.

Think the India-Pakistan flare-up has nothing to do with the U.S.? That’s a mistake.

Follow the weapons. Follow the money.
It leads to NATO, USAID & rogue U.S. intel.

There are many threads—today, we go down one: the secret Ukraine-Pakistan arms deal🧵 Let’s start with the money.
@MikeBenzCyber said: “we’ve been funding all the terror groups in Pakistan”

USAID was funding:
— $40 million/week to the Taliban
— $122 million to ISIS

India’s FAFO moment

The terror attack on Hindus in Kashmir, esp amidst VP Vance's visit, has flared up one of the world’s most sensitive regions.

India is planning a decisive retaliation.
And the US administration has offered its full support.

Here's what you need to know🧵 Pahalgam Massacre [April 22, 2025] was a chilling, religiously targeted assault.

"Terrorists asked the name and religion of males, forced to strip their pants to check circumcision, and shot them” says a survivor.

Some local on-ground operatives seem to have been involved.

https://x.com/indiatv/status/1914912128651419792

Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵 I’ve been piecing together a puzzle for months—across Trump’s tariff announcements, gold revaluation murmurs, IMF gripes, and Treasury policy.

It has been vaguely called the Mar-a-Lago Accords.

Not a document. Not yet.

But a framework that is absolutely in motion.

🧵The 195D Chessboard: What the Tariff Move Set in Motion

I’ve waited 10 days—not because the dust has fully settled, but for signals.

What began as a bold tariff play has triggered 1st, 2nd & 3rd-order effects—across the monetary system, trade architecture & global alignment.

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865

Historically, tariff shocks redirected global capital into Treasuries—lowering yields, strengthening the dollar, and easing U.S. refinancing.

That familiar flight-to-safety pattern has long reinforced Washington’s fiscal leverage.

This time, the response diverged.

The global chessboard is finally in motion.

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have landed, and the world has responded. We can now see who’s ready to play in this grand reset—and who isn’t.

Three clear response strategies seem to be emerging. Let's check the updates so far🧵 First, let's recap the tariffs:

-UK, Israel, UAE, Saudi face a 10% baseline.
-Others were slammed: China, Taiwan, Japan, and EU endure steep duties—up to 50%.
-Semiconductors & energy stayed partly sheltered for a lucky few.
-Russia, Cuba, Belarus, North Korea were excluded.

Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵 Start with the debt: $9.2T must be refinanced in 2025.

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.

Lower yields free up fiscal room—without them, core spending gets crowded out.

America is redrawing the battlelines for AI policy

Having worked on AI policy worldwide, I've observed firsthand the global push on AI safety.

Now, VP JD Vance says the US is pivoting to acceleration.
How will this influence markets & geopolitics?
Join our XSpace to explore🧵

https://twitter.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1889180588738781674

Here's a thread of how AI policy across jurisdictions was overwhelmingly focused on safety so far

I dug into President Trump’s Executive Orders on Immigration so you don’t have to.

From a national emergency, to military at the border, to cartels labeled as terrorists, many legal plays have been invoked.

Here’s all you need to know (and why it’s a BIG deal) 🧵 1/ The National Emergencies Act (NEA)
The NEA (1976) gives the POTUS sweeping powers to respond to crises. Trump has invoked the NEA to counter criminal gangs & illegal immigration- allowing reallocation of federal funds (bypassing Congress) to expedite border security measures.