1/9 Precious Metals:
It stinks more than you think,
Let's stop & think for a minute.
What was happening in markets?
From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while
the Precious Metals Gold and Silver were ramping.
D-I-V-E-R-G-E-N-C-E
@DerivativesDon
2/9 We have notorious velocity problems with an insolvent Fed, and a quasi fiscal deficit. Meaning that the Fed has to pay Banks for not using reserves. IORB..
That's a sterilization short-term but inflationary long term.
A QFD as explained by Rodriguez at the World Bank is a very nasty condition of sterilization costs documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/465…
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
5/9 #BTC is most likely a Gov sponsored program.
It has a SECOND impact as a non-inflationary liquidity decoy.
If the liquidity were to go into
Foods and Metals =>
higher prices =>
higher inflation numbers =>
higher interest costs for the gov =>
higher deficit interest burden =>
higher cost of sterilization for the #Fed via IORB and more negative equity at the FEd (compromising the other components that is M0)
#BTC is therefore a way to protect the USD and UST.
6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
7/9
Can you imagine margins increased on April 3rd at brokers on Stocks?
What would have been the plunge in stocks?
Well the authorities did EXACTLY THAT on Precious Metals.
Why for the reasons explained before.
Sterilization and velocity control.
THE FLOWS CAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO INTO COMMOs (BECAUSE IT's INFLATIONARY)
8/9 Liquidity fleeing the financial assets and the currency into commodities (inflationary)? NOT ALLOWED.
#BTC, the non-inflationary decoy since April 2nd? Miraculously flat.
lol...
9/9 People are being fooled into thinking that the primary risk is deflation. The condition of the Fed and primary deficit point to the complete opposite direction.
This market A JOKE
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1/25 ABOUT, COCOA, ORANGE JUICE, SILVER and HUME & THORNTON
What we saw recently with cocoa, Coffee and now Silver is a classic rotational spike&correct. As Thornton writes in 1804, citing Hume
2/25 But that is the second phase in fact the first phase is “exciting industry” aka TINA .
3/25 Thornton explains the first stimulative phase in several ways.
First the timing.
It is between the time of the issuance of money and the phase II when the money chases the commodities. HINT: we are post TINA and in the commo ramp phase.
1/19 In the last couple of days a striking observation was relayed by various Fintwit accounts.
A combination of productivity gains and stagnant real wages
2/ Coupled with some dissavings
4/ In principle productivity gains should translate into higher real income and potentially higher savings.
That’s the Solow neoclassical model.,
1 - Productivity ↑
2 - Marginal product of labor ↑
3 - Real wages ↑
4 - Disposable income ↑
5 - Consumption ↑ and savings ↑
1/ ABOUT THE USE OF SILVER vs COPPER IN SOLAR PANEL,
LONGi SWITCHING,
AND THE DIFFERENTIAL PROCESS OF SOLAR PANEL COSTS
(falling PV energy to produce PV in a feedback loop)
What would be the impact for Solar Panels manufacturers of switching from Silver to base metals?
2/ Most current research and industrial sources discuss that switching to copper would result in 0.8%-1% loss in conversion (e.g., copper-metallized cells can be within ~1% efficiency of silver-based ones).:
Copper-metallised cells are within ~1% efficiency of silver counterparts — TNO / international research: tno.nl/en/newsroom/20…tno.nl/nl
In that research, fully copper-metallised cells had slightly lower efficiency (e.g., ~23.08% vs 23.79% for silver), indicating about 0.7% — 0.8%+ efficiency difference in some test cases.
3/ LONGi announced that it is switching from silver to base metals
LONGi officially announced that it will begin replacing silver with base metals (like copper) in its solar cell production — beginning mass production in Q2 2026 to lower costs amid rising silver prices:
China’s Longi joins solar push to cut costs by using less silver (Mining.com)
1/16
STRUCTURED REASONING ON OIL DEMAND FOR 2026 AND BEYOND
a.
2023-2024 LOWEST GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND OUTSIDE OF A RECESSION
b.
DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORTATION WAS THE DRIVER OF TOTAL GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND BUT IS NOW FLAT
c.
A STRUCTURAL SHIFT : OIL DEMAND GROWTH WAS BEFORE DOMINATED BY GROUND TRANSPORTATION
d.
TRUCKS WERE DRIVING OIL DEMAND WITHIN THE TOTAL GROUND TRANSPORATION, BUT THE SHARE OF TRUCK IN $OIL DEMAND IS UNDER ATTACK
e.
CHINA TRUCKS : TRANSPORTATION WENT FROM THE MAIN DRIVER OF OIL GROWTH TO NEUTRAL:
f.
EUROPEAN OEMs ON SHARE OF EV IN TRUCK SALES BY 2030: 50-60%
g.
TRUCKS IN INDIA
h.
VERY LARGE IMPACT FROM E-BIKES
i.
CONCLUSION: LOOKING INTO 2026 AND BEYOND
2/16 DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORTATION WAS THE DRIVER OF TOTAL GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND BUT IS NOW FLAT
In 2024, chemical feedstocks & aviation each accounted for around half of oil demand growth in energy terms (in volumetric terms, the share of feedstocks was higher, at around 70%).
3/16
After rebounding strongly following the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in many countries, growth in oil demand from the road transport sector has slowed markedly in recent years.
1/8 Blackwell Party Crash:
Interconnects will "Poof" NVIDIA's Premium
Everyone excited about Blackwell? 🎉
PARTY CRASHING
inefficient
Like each chip guzzles up to 1kW but with horrendous scalability limits due to crappy interconnects.
PARTY CRASHER?
MicroLED interconnection
2/8 The Bottlenecks in AI Scaling: Interconnection (Copper vs. Laser)
Let's see...
COPPER
Result you cram a few very good architecture chips in a box connected with cooper wires(that’s the Blackwell situation today)
OR...
3/8 You do brute force scaling like the Huawei cluster with options?
It comes at a Huuuuuge interconnect energy cost (laser are very power hungry)
In classical economics the bust is often attributed by the British writers to “overtrade”, and this is often magnified by excessively loose monetary policy. But it can happen without excessive loose monetary or fiscal policy... archives 👇
3/10
You can spot that in the writings from Thomas Tooke in 1826 about the BoE buying some exchequer bills in 1823 repressing rates and creating an overtrade situation in the mining scheme in Central and South America culminating with the “poyais” fictitious country.