GraphFinancials. / GraphCall Technology Profile picture
Apr 5 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Precious Metals:
It stinks more than you think,
Let's stop & think for a minute.
What was happening in markets?
From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while
the Precious Metals Gold and Silver were ramping.
D-I-V-E-R-G-E-N-C-E
@DerivativesDon Image
2/9 We have notorious velocity problems with an insolvent Fed, and a quasi fiscal deficit. Meaning that the Fed has to pay Banks for not using reserves. IORB..
That's a sterilization short-term but inflationary long term.
A QFD as explained by Rodriguez at the World Bank is a very nasty condition of sterilization costs
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/465…Image
Image
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
5/9
#BTC is most likely a Gov sponsored program.

It has a SECOND impact as a non-inflationary liquidity decoy.

If the liquidity were to go into
Foods and Metals =>
higher prices =>
higher inflation numbers =>
higher interest costs for the gov =>
higher deficit interest burden =>
higher cost of sterilization for the #Fed via IORB and more negative equity at the FEd (compromising the other components that is M0)

#BTC is therefore a way to protect the USD and UST.

x.com/GraphCall/stat…Image
Image
6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
7/9
Can you imagine margins increased on April 3rd at brokers on Stocks?
What would have been the plunge in stocks?

Well the authorities did EXACTLY THAT on Precious Metals.
Why for the reasons explained before.
Sterilization and velocity control.
THE FLOWS CAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO INTO COMMOs (BECAUSE IT's INFLATIONARY)
8/9 Liquidity fleeing the financial assets and the currency into commodities (inflationary)? NOT ALLOWED.
#BTC, the non-inflationary decoy since April 2nd? Miraculously flat.
lol... Image
9/9
People are being fooled into thinking that the primary risk is deflation. The condition of the Fed and primary deficit point to the complete opposite direction.
This market A JOKE

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with GraphFinancials. / GraphCall Technology

GraphFinancials. / GraphCall Technology Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GraphCall

Jun 21
1/7 WHAT BONDS ARE LIKELY TO DO IN THE COMING MONTHS WITH RATE CUTTS

UNPACKING BOTH GUNDLACH AND DALIO

Adding historical data and classical economics rationale to their statements.
GUNDLACH

youtube.com/watch?v=QqJhb-…

It’s pretty clear that the US will hit 3% inflation by year-end, especially with oil adding 0.4% for every 10 USD, he says the view from the Fed is that tariffs push prices higher.

COMMENT:

Sure, tariffs are not monetary inflation, but higher prices are higher prices. If Walmart and Amazon tell you that they will raise price, it’s fair to assume they will. Could the tariffs be a one-time hit? Most likely, but it hits nonetheless.

According to Gundlach, the Fed will have to choose between inflation and unemployment—and will throw away the inflation target.

COMMENT:
That’s short-term expediency. In the long term, they will have neither. The fiscal condition will cripple the US.

2% INFLATION TARGET GONE
In an old post from our previously hacked account, we mentioned that the US would eventually move its inflation target and shift toward inflationary financing:

graphcall.com/execute?task=N…
2/7 Back to Gundlach’s unpacking:
If unemployment rises, they give up on inflation.That’s his view

He also mentions the de-inversion of the 2–10 year spread, which is moving above its moving average. He says that when the spread moves above the moving average it means recession historically.

COMMENT:
That’s an interesting point. But under monetary dominance, de-inversion usually occurs with the entire curve falling, not rising. De-inverting with a rising curve signals fiscal dominance—disanchoring the long end and dragging the whole curve up.

Back to Gundlach:

U3 is at 4.2%,
It is above the 36-month moving average, which is typically a trend of deceleration.
But it's not accelerating.

COMMENT:
Gundlach says he's puzzled by the lack of acceleration. The puzzle might be simpler than it seems. When deceleration happens with little government stimulus (primary deficit = gov stimulus), there’s quick contagion and no artificial booster to stop the decline. That booster is uncovered spending (permanent Keynes now in operation).

BUT even with a large government deficit spending, the economy remains tepid. This was visible in our recent Q1 2025 review of Wells Fargo.
x.com/GraphCall/stat…

It should be a bit alarming—massive Keynesian boosting under both Biden and now Trump, and yet very little to show for it, coupled with reduced output. (Classic fiscal dominance.)

The reason deterioration is slow is due to a crowding-out situation, or “war regime”: lots of means of circulation (T-bills are quasi-money), little output.

The same thing happened between 1913–1919 (see
Kemmerer: High Prices and Deflation), which created abnormally high inflation and interest rates relative to output—if analyzed through a monetary dominance lens.
3/7 Back to Gundlach again:
Bond market vs. PCE:
The curve continues steepening in the context of high inflation.

The Fed's dual mandate is thrown away.
The entire yield curve is up 11 bps since the last meeting.

GUNDLACH ON CREDIT SPREAD REVERSAL:

Spread went from 250 bps to 450 bps in April—and almost completely reversed.
The CCC bank loan market spreads have come in this year...!

425 bps higher than a few years ago, yet the Fed isn’t lowering rates.

Triple-C+ spreads are coming in, thoser companies are paying 10–11%, despite economic deceleration.
Meanwhile, regular high-yield spreads are only slightly wider.

COMMENT:
Absurdity is where you make money. It also indicates a place where something is likely to blow up.
Gundlach is moving up the ladder in credit quality.

COMMENT:
That’s interesting, because that’s where the FDIC is also warning about tight credit (we’ll come back to the FDIC quarterly report).Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 9
0/20 After the BLS data on inflation not adding up with inferior goods consumption trends...
Credit bureau data on delinquencies in unsecured debt does not seem to add up either.... let's review the data...
1/20 This is data gathered from different sources, including credit bureaus:
This data seems highly improbable on the side of improving delinquencies in subprime unsecured debt. Image
2/20
Aggregate Savings Rate Image
Read 20 tweets
Jun 8
1/18 Different data points indicate a Liz-Truss Moment on April 4th.
There was extreme volatility on cash versus futures post- April 4th, with the 30 years going. We have seen the same dislocations and volatility in 2022, during the Liz Truss moment.

Why?bankunderground.co.uk/2024/07/17/fut…
2/18 Because pension funds sold what's liquid first, and it can be the futures.
And that's because people went too heavy on swap spreads, ignoring the fiscal dominance risk...
3/18 A veteran explained why people went too heavy on the long end in the swap spreads thread, hoping for large absorption of UST due to deregulation. marketwatch.com/story/heres-ho…Image
Read 18 tweets
May 31
1/23 External Drains: The Juglar Episode

Why under the old AND new regime ONLY trade can stop Gold outflows (stop rising in a floating ccy)

And why "real rates" alone don't work to stop Gold in the old a new regime.

Are rates responsible for a fall in gold?
Forget what you learnt in FX as reserves, only indirectly via trade when FX as reserves is not obeyed!

A provocative view, yet perfectly logical explanation from Clément Juglar.

It becomes clear why there was a prohibition from Nixon/Volcker on G-7 countries from dumping their USD acquired in trade into precious metals.
2/23 Juglar starts by citing an example that seems to support that the higher rates themselves result in lower prices of Gold. (but wait...) Image
Image
3/23 This echoes the view from Henry Thornton: when purchasing power parity and goods are too expensive, the goods stay , and what is cheap (gold) goes where gold is dearer to the trade surplus / creditor country (spread on gold).
link.graphcall.com/Silver-V
Read 23 tweets
May 27
1/24 You probably remember the claims from Larry Summers and Jamie Dimon questioning the inflation calculation in the US?
I think that we can conclude that they are correct using a simple curve that most people in economics have learnt. Image
Image
2/24 That is the demand profile for inferior goods versus normal goods.

So here is the chart that shows that inferior goods consumption increases with a decrease in real income. Image
3/24 What is going on with private labels (inferior goods)? Booming.

Here are several recent industry and news articles showing that consumers are increasingly shifting toward private-label products:

NielsenIQ (Apr 2025): Nearly half of U.S. shoppers report they’re buying more private-label items than ever, as retailers roll out multi-tiered store brands to meet both value and premium needs. NIQ
nielseniq.com/global/en/insi…

Bazaarvoice (May 2025): Their Shopper Preference Report finds an 11 percentage-point jump in store-brand adoption over the past year, driven by quality improvements and tight household budgets. Bazaarvoice
bazaarvoice.com/blog/why-priva…

PYMNTS (Mar 3, 2025): Grocery private labels have “surpassed national brands in both sales and consumer preference,” as value-seeking shoppers abandon legacy labels without sacrificing quality.
pymnts.com/news/retail/20…

Reuters (Apr 24, 2025): Major CPG firms like Nestlé and Unilever are easing price hikes to compete with lower-priced store brands, noting “private-label goods have been outpacing major brands in growth.” Reuters
reuters.com/business/nestl…

The Sun via Reuters (Q1 2025): Dollar General is expanding its private-label Clover Valley line by 100 new products, responding to “shoppers who cannot afford purchasing mistakes.” The US Sun
the-sun.com/money/13400341…
Read 24 tweets
May 9
1/16 “THERE IS TOO MUCH OIL”
Scott Sheffield
Former CEO of the largest independent shale oil driller in the United States (hardly a "green activist") — 1 month ago —
When someone like that says something like that, investors should pay attention.
PLAY 📺
here 👉rebrand.ly/too-much-oil
2/16 Once you connect the dots, it’s fairly simple to understand why he said that. Reporter “13 million barrels a day, can it be increased?” Scott Sheffield “There is a lack of tier-1 inventory. The Permian is running out of tier-1 inventory.
3/16 Pioneer is running out of tier-1 inventory by 2028.”
Now you figure out that they had the most tier-1 inventory.
Operators with weaker inventory will run out sooner.
Some are just tier-2, actually.
There is too much oil.
Saudi Arabia is adding 2 million barrels/day.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(