Geoffrey Fouvry Profile picture
Apr 5 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Precious Metals:
It stinks more than you think,
Let's stop & think for a minute.
What was happening in markets?
From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while
the Precious Metals Gold and Silver were ramping.
D-I-V-E-R-G-E-N-C-E
@DerivativesDon Image
2/9 We have notorious velocity problems with an insolvent Fed, and a quasi fiscal deficit. Meaning that the Fed has to pay Banks for not using reserves. IORB..
That's a sterilization short-term but inflationary long term.
A QFD as explained by Rodriguez at the World Bank is a very nasty condition of sterilization costs
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/465…Image
Image
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
5/9
#BTC is most likely a Gov sponsored program.

It has a SECOND impact as a non-inflationary liquidity decoy.

If the liquidity were to go into
Foods and Metals =>
higher prices =>
higher inflation numbers =>
higher interest costs for the gov =>
higher deficit interest burden =>
higher cost of sterilization for the #Fed via IORB and more negative equity at the FEd (compromising the other components that is M0)

#BTC is therefore a way to protect the USD and UST.

x.com/GraphCall/stat…Image
Image
6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
7/9
Can you imagine margins increased on April 3rd at brokers on Stocks?
What would have been the plunge in stocks?

Well the authorities did EXACTLY THAT on Precious Metals.
Why for the reasons explained before.
Sterilization and velocity control.
THE FLOWS CAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO INTO COMMOs (BECAUSE IT's INFLATIONARY)
8/9 Liquidity fleeing the financial assets and the currency into commodities (inflationary)? NOT ALLOWED.
#BTC, the non-inflationary decoy since April 2nd? Miraculously flat.
lol... Image
9/9
People are being fooled into thinking that the primary risk is deflation. The condition of the Fed and primary deficit point to the complete opposite direction.
This market A JOKE

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More from @GraphCall

Aug 28
1/10 Not entirely sure Dario interpreted correctly the elements he showed in his post imho. In fact the elements Dario showed indicate that supply is getting less tight versus demand or said otherwise demand is less raging versus supply. let's show that.
2/10 NVDA had a lot of deferred revenues versus recognition back in the end of 2023, in short every one is giving them their "money in advance" to reserve the chips. That's why you have the deferred revenues ("The reservation" like you would pay the restaurant before eating)
3/10 But one you ate at the restaurant the revenues are "recognized" the restaurant fullfilled its obligation that emerged as the clients paid the meal in advance. Big gap by the end of 2023. Everyone wants to pay in advance to go in the restaurant . Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 17
1/21 Preventing the Gold Flow to Enable FX as Reserves and the History of Monetary Central Planning Failures from 1873 Europe, 1898 India forced FX as reserves in 1922 to the Present Day.

The BIS is once again pleading to organize and centralize the Gold flow.

The Gold flow has always been the problem for adept monetary central planning, as the Gold flow is an enforced discipline against expansion of currency and trade deficit.
2/21 Monetary Central Planning started with the advent of the demonetization of Silver, argues Marc Flandreau in “The Glitter of Gold.”
Why the need to centralize what used to be impossible to control? Image
3/21 That is what Juglar wrote in 1888 about the Flow of Gold or the non-recycling of FX into the debtors’ sovereign debt, it forces a price discovery on interest rates.
Read 21 tweets
Aug 14
1/24 BULL TRAP
2000 STIMMIE vs 2025 REVERSE STIMMIE

FIRST LET’S MAKE EVERYONE IS ON THE RIGHT PAGE HERE

Stimmie is money coming from the Gov going to consumers directly.
Reverse stimmie is money coming from consumers and going to the Gov.
2/24 One would have to suppose that both conditions can not have the same consequences, but should be suspected to have opposite consequences.
3/24 LET’S FIRST LOOK AT THE BEAR TRAP SEQUENCE OF 2020
(so we understand better the reverse situation)

This sequence was characterized by first
A plunge in velocity and deflationary impulse.
A response by money printing and Stimmie
A rise in savings rate and savings initially
Read 24 tweets
Aug 12
1/5 Bloomberg is explaining what we explained before here
EVs are cheap in EMs and the cost of fuels is monstruous for EM households.
RESULT?
The switching is happening MUCH faster than forecasters (not this twitter account)

Policymakers are also likely to extend such incentives for purely macroeconomic reasons. In India and Pakistan, oil and gas account for as much as a third of the total import bill, compared to around 10% in the US and European Union.

We explained before that India had a notorious fiscal dominance problem because it had to subsidized the fuel. With the cost per mile 10X cheaper in India?
Demand for gasoline and diesel in India sustained?
😂

1/10th of Oil demand wiped off by 2030.... It will probably be larger.

archive.ph/Ycx9C#selectio…

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
@KingKong9888Image
Image
2/5 But don't count on China to supress the cut throat cost plunge in Battery. It's not like Solar where everybody is losing money, BYD still makes money CATL is coming up with Sodium battery in mass production at 170 wh/ kilo with Nextra by year end. And 200 wh/ kolp in 2 years.
3/5 Why? Cut the legs on the Petrodollar not from the dollar side but unexpectedly from the Petro. 50% of world $Oil demand is coming from ground transportation.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3
1/8 Werner AT 44 minutes:
According to Banking School, Werner is correct again.
But using "money" for banks is a misnomer. It is called "bank currency" by the Banking school, let's explain why...
2/8 Bank currency is a liability of the bank. It is created either when you bring M0- money - to the bank (paper bills today, or coins in the past.
3/8 Bank creates bank currency by buying discountable articles of credit and issue a liability that is bank currency (what people call a deposit) ... It is not "your" money it is a liability of the bank , bank currency that is accepted as means of circulation.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 3
1/7 The view from Werner is interesting and does match the Banking School' view of Thornton (the third theory,
"Enquiry into the paper credit ..."
, which is classical economics BTW (practiced by the twitter account)
Now why have people erred since then? 🤷‍♂️
It is a mystery.
2/7
Thornton does not call bank currency "money". It calls it "bank currency", money being strictly M0 of the time PM. Bank currency can be created either by depositing M0 (money) or against a discountable article.
3/7 Agreed with Werner though, watching M2 is stupid because it confuses bank currency created by bringing M0 to the bank from central bank printing which has ZERO impact on circulation but only into pumping financial assets (bonds). What matters is the credit flow.
Read 7 tweets

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