Geoffrey Fouvry Profile picture
Apr 5, 2025 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Precious Metals:
It stinks more than you think,
Let's stop & think for a minute.
What was happening in markets?
From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while
the Precious Metals Gold and Silver were ramping.
D-I-V-E-R-G-E-N-C-E
@DerivativesDon Image
2/9 We have notorious velocity problems with an insolvent Fed, and a quasi fiscal deficit. Meaning that the Fed has to pay Banks for not using reserves. IORB..
That's a sterilization short-term but inflationary long term.
A QFD as explained by Rodriguez at the World Bank is a very nasty condition of sterilization costs
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/465…Image
Image
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
5/9
#BTC is most likely a Gov sponsored program.

It has a SECOND impact as a non-inflationary liquidity decoy.

If the liquidity were to go into
Foods and Metals =>
higher prices =>
higher inflation numbers =>
higher interest costs for the gov =>
higher deficit interest burden =>
higher cost of sterilization for the #Fed via IORB and more negative equity at the FEd (compromising the other components that is M0)

#BTC is therefore a way to protect the USD and UST.

x.com/GraphCall/stat…Image
Image
6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
7/9
Can you imagine margins increased on April 3rd at brokers on Stocks?
What would have been the plunge in stocks?

Well the authorities did EXACTLY THAT on Precious Metals.
Why for the reasons explained before.
Sterilization and velocity control.
THE FLOWS CAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO INTO COMMOs (BECAUSE IT's INFLATIONARY)
8/9 Liquidity fleeing the financial assets and the currency into commodities (inflationary)? NOT ALLOWED.
#BTC, the non-inflationary decoy since April 2nd? Miraculously flat.
lol... Image
9/9
People are being fooled into thinking that the primary risk is deflation. The condition of the Fed and primary deficit point to the complete opposite direction.
This market A JOKE

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More from @GraphCall

Jun 18
1/13
JPY Long:
Mr. Warsh is not in a position to raise rates considering the massive reliance on short term financing and roll-over
2/13 It follows that the weakness in JPY FX is almost purely related to a market phenomenon of rates differential due to excessive issuance of US debt securities to fund its war AND....
3/12 from a market phenomenon of embargo commodities on rates. This phenomenon is what Iran was relying upon to force the US to stop its war of face an almost guaranteed seizure of the US capital markets structure.

Read 13 tweets
May 26
1/18 In 1720 the promotional material for the Mississippi Company:

The Mississippi Colonies:
"An almost incredible advantage thereby accruing to the French King and a great Number of its subjects" Image
2/17
RINSE / REPEAT Image
3/18
British East India Company reference
The Mississippi Company was also called the
"French East India Company" Image
Read 20 tweets
May 14
1/6 Major Tom:
We have a big fat problem with LLMs.

Ground Control:
What is that Major?

Here... Question to Google AI Image
2/6

Answer Image
3/6

More: Image
Read 7 tweets
May 13
1/14 Choke
This is where the war is happening. Image
2/14 And NO, it's not happening primarily in Europe. Image
3/14
There's so much renewable capacity addition that nat gas response is tepid. Renewables and storage projects to go up 450% by 2030.
Price of electricity are actually down in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025. Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 16
1/9 GUNDLACH EXPECTS A REDUCTION OF UST COUPONS: WHAT THE PRECEDENT OF THE UK OF THE 1820s TELLS US
What happened when the insolvent government of the UK in the 1820s did the same?
This can give us important insights, as Mr. Gundlach is expecting exactly that for the US:
Image
2/9 In the historical episode described, the UK government—burdened by excessive debt, largely as a result of fighting the Napoleonic Wars—chose to reduce the coupon on its obligations.
3/9 What is interesting is that it resulted in a similar outcome to the current debasement policies of the US, as the US central bank is in a process of deficit monetization.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 29
1/25 ABOUT, COCOA, ORANGE JUICE, SILVER and HUME & THORNTON

What we saw recently with cocoa, Coffee and now Silver is a classic rotational spike&correct. As Thornton writes in 1804, citing Hume Image
2/25 But that is the second phase in fact the first phase is “exciting industry” aka TINA . Image
3/25 Thornton explains the first stimulative phase in several ways.
First the timing.
It is between the time of the issuance of money and the phase II when the money chases the commodities. HINT: we are post TINA and in the commo ramp phase. Image
Read 25 tweets

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