GraphFinancials. / GraphCall Technology Profile picture
Apr 5 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Precious Metals:
It stinks more than you think,
Let's stop & think for a minute.
What was happening in markets?
From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while
the Precious Metals Gold and Silver were ramping.
D-I-V-E-R-G-E-N-C-E
@DerivativesDon Image
2/9 We have notorious velocity problems with an insolvent Fed, and a quasi fiscal deficit. Meaning that the Fed has to pay Banks for not using reserves. IORB..
That's a sterilization short-term but inflationary long term.
A QFD as explained by Rodriguez at the World Bank is a very nasty condition of sterilization costs
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/465…Image
Image
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
5/9
#BTC is most likely a Gov sponsored program.

It has a SECOND impact as a non-inflationary liquidity decoy.

If the liquidity were to go into
Foods and Metals =>
higher prices =>
higher inflation numbers =>
higher interest costs for the gov =>
higher deficit interest burden =>
higher cost of sterilization for the #Fed via IORB and more negative equity at the FEd (compromising the other components that is M0)

#BTC is therefore a way to protect the USD and UST.

x.com/GraphCall/stat…Image
Image
6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
7/9
Can you imagine margins increased on April 3rd at brokers on Stocks?
What would have been the plunge in stocks?

Well the authorities did EXACTLY THAT on Precious Metals.
Why for the reasons explained before.
Sterilization and velocity control.
THE FLOWS CAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO INTO COMMOs (BECAUSE IT's INFLATIONARY)
8/9 Liquidity fleeing the financial assets and the currency into commodities (inflationary)? NOT ALLOWED.
#BTC, the non-inflationary decoy since April 2nd? Miraculously flat.
lol... Image
9/9
People are being fooled into thinking that the primary risk is deflation. The condition of the Fed and primary deficit point to the complete opposite direction.
This market A JOKE

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More from @GraphCall

Apr 7
1/13 THE FUNDAMENTAL ORIGIN OF CREDIT: HUMAN RELATIONSHIP OF TRUST
AND WHAT THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION HAS DONE TO THE UST "CREDIT" (PART I)

The definition of credit by henry Thornton 1802. The fundamental principle of confidence. @rsrindy Image
2/13 The notion of confidence and sense of justice among credit partners.
There is nothing “just” in threatening to confiscate land from an economic area of a tiny country (Danemark) which is lending money to you and trusted you. Image
3/13
There is on the other hand a total justified recrimination about the aggressive posture of Denmark in pushing for the conflict in UKraine, but it could be dealt directly and openly.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 2
1/6 FINAL THOUGHTS ON TARIFFS 🤔,
Let's start with MV=PQ

MV is not affected in principles by tariffs.
That is the quantity of means of circulation is not increased by tariffs, nor should V, the velocity (albeit inflation expectations)
2/6 What is interesting is on the other side.
PQ, or GDP
Alright so here we go;
GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)

While consumption C in units will decline on imported good, the trade deficit (X - M) may shrink due to reduced imports.
3/6 However, if there is a lack of substitution on domestic goods, and it should be the case short term, then:
The likely impact is that the net between declining C and (X-M) is?
NEGATIVE in units.
(although a nice funk in capital markets could help the USD go lower and help exports)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 23
1/24 The commonly accepted view is that during a recession, long bond yields fall. If you subscribe to a monetary dominance perspective, this is absolutely true, as verified over the last couple of decades. How about since 1731? Image
2/24 However, if you have experience trading emerging market bonds, you may have some doubts about the extent of the decline due to fiscal dominance.
3/24 What about historical archives, particularly for UK sovereign bonds? Fortunately, some archives, such as those from Clément Juglar, are available and help broaden investors' perspectives on the range of possible outcomes.
The 3% annuities began trading in 1731. Image
Read 24 tweets
Mar 23
1/6 Tracking the China Hongbao (red envelopes)
The hongbao bodes well for retail results in China in Q1 2025 Image
2/6 Reasons for the Increase in M0 Supply

a) Seasonal Cash Demand:
During the Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year), there is a surge in demand for physical cash. People withdraw large amounts of money to give red envelopes (hongbao) as gifts to family, friends, and employees.

b) Business Transactions:
Many businesses distribute year-end bonuses and settle payments before the holiday, leading to a temporary spike in cash circulation.

c) Holiday Spending:
Increased consumer spending on travel, retail, and entertainment during the New Year celebrations leads to higher cash withdrawals.

d) Temporary Liquidity Adjustments:
To accommodate these demands, the PBOC injects liquidity into the banking system by increasing the M0 supply.
3/6 HOW IS THIS YEAR LOOKING LIKE?

This year's increase is notably larger than in previous years.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) significantly increased the M0 money supply at the beginning of this year. In January 2025, the M0 supply reached approximately 14.23 trillion yuan, up from 12.82 trillion yuan in December 2024, marking an 11% month-over-month increase.

This substantial rise aligns with the typical seasonal pattern observed around the Chinese New Year, during which cash demand surges due to increased consumer spending and the traditional practice of giving red envelopes.

To provide further context, the M0 supply in January 2024 was about 12.14 trillion yuan, indicating a 17.22% year-over-year increase in January 2025. This year's increase is notably larger than in previous years, reflecting the PBOC's efforts to accommodate heightened cash demand during the festive season.

It's also worth noting that China's broad money supply (M2) reached approximately 318.52 trillion yuan in January 2025, up from 313.53 trillion yuan in December 2024. This indicates a broader monetary expansion beyond just physical currency in circulation.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
1/21 "The Bitcoin Act" is as usual with the name of the bill, completely deceptive, devious.
The Bitcoin Sovereign fund bill is neither
disguised Gold revaluation,
nor USD devaluation.
It’s simply
Theft of Central bank’s Gold by the Gov. (PART I) Image
2/21 We will explain separately in other posts the process of
a) Gold revaluation with archives (Kemmerer 1920) in a separate post
b) Currency devaluation by buying Gold with (Thornton 1802) in several posts (there are 3 versions of the explanation)
3/21 In the Bitcoin Bill, Bitcoin is totally irrelevant (as usual, simply a non-inflationary decoy).
Read 21 tweets
Mar 19
1/12 THE RISK-FREE RATE JOKE
(We need a detour to explain how the Bitcoin bill is, in fact, the Federal Reserve’s gold theft by the Gov, and that this bill has little to do with Bitcoin)
2/12
You often hear from posters on Twitter that government bond yields represent the risk-free rate and that it is natural for all other credit securities to trade with a credit spread or gradient. This is entirely false—propaganda and a legal artificiality.
3/12
In a redeemable currency system of 1797, with Gov bonds redeemable in Gold, the sovereign debt of the UK would trade with an extra spread. Thornton 1802 👇 Image
Read 12 tweets

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