Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 5 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Ukraine has fielded a new counter to Russian radio jamming proof fiber optic guided (FOG) drones.

After a Russian FOG FPV drone impacts, the Ukrainians are attaching a device to light up the fiber optic thread
1/
...to provide a lighted 'bread crumb' trail to the Russian drone operators.

Ukrainian drones then back track the lit-up thread to kill the operators.

2/
The kicker is that, compared to the old US FOG-M missile technology of the 1980's and 1990's, Russian 2025 era FOG-drone launchers are immobile.

This is because the Ukrainian "Truck denial zone" with radio link FPV drones is now 10 km and growing.
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Ukrainian FPV's are currently in the process of reaching 40 km with a new generation of FPV drone bodies, some of which have radio frequency sensors capable of homing on Russian jammers of drone video links and GPS sensors.
4/
Previously, If the Russian FOG-FPV drone operators shoot and scoot, they died.

Now if they stay in place, Russian FOG-FPV drone operators die too.

5/
This is an unsolved dilemma facing Russian drone operators whose experience is now falling further behind the Ukrainians due to their higher attrition.

6/
This dilemma of losing skilled operators faster than experience grows is the same issue German and Japanese fighter pilots in WW2 faced versus the Anglo-American air forces.

7/
Lanchester Square law collapse is coming for Russia's new military drone branch just like it came for the Luftwaffe and Imperial Japanese naval air force.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 1
I cannot underline enough how drones have changed warfare from WW2 based on this 🧵 numbers:

75% of all RuAF Casualties are from drones
20% are from Artillery
4% are from small arms

RuAF WIA time to medical treatment past AFU drones: 14.5 hours (3 x normal CASEVAC)

Drone🧵
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In WW2 according to US Army Medical department statistics, the US Army ground forces in NW Europe and the Mediterranean took 65% of their casualties from Artillery.

In 2025, Russia is taking 75% from drones.

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Drones are now more lethal in Ukraine than artillery was in the WW2, the most artillery heavy war in human history to date.

Drones have replaced, and then some, tube artillery, rockets and mortars as the indirect fire "King of Battle."

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Read 12 tweets
Mar 23
Strategypage -dot- com has a new article out on the decline of Russian that civil infrastructure that makes Frederick Lanchester smile.

Russian Civil Infrastructure Attrition🧵

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Text from the article:

"Russia wants to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This will work if done from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker.

2/
...Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is starting to collapse in some or many areas because of disinvestment.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 8
Just...no.

This is the "Russia Strong" narrative pushed by those unknowingly spreading Russian Reflexive Control infowar propaganda, as here.

Russia is _Not_ Strong🧵

1/
The semiconductor industrial base is the foundation of 21st century economic & military power.

The USSR only ever produced single detector element technology like Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) Infrared Line Scan (IRLS) or scanning infrared Search and Track (IRST) like those on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A.

2/Image
The USSR never produced any of the classic nodding or spinning mirror LWIR Forward Looking Infrared (FLIRs) sensors that the US introduced during the Vietnam war.

In fact there is no evidence Russia was able to sustain any of the large Soviet semiconductor industry.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 19
The vast majority of US military aid to Ukraine was in fact spent inside the USA to replace vastly overpriced by the Biden Adm. National Guard & Air Guard surplus weapons.

Spending aid money buying Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) to replace NG surplus Humvees

Infowar🧵
1/
...was just one of the aid grifts @JakeSullivan46 NSC crew played to pretend they were helping Ukraine while not offending Russia & buying US Defense contractor kit.

Pres. Trump is literally parroting Russian reflexive control scripts from Biden Adm.

2/
This should not be a surprise as I've pounded on the fact for 2 years that Russia has mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to eat up messages/memes Russia wants those groups to believe.

Calling Ukraine's...

3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 9
This @sambendett thread here makes Russia seem like a poor kid looking through a candy store window at the "candy" of Ukrainian ground resupply drones.

1/
We still don't see D-rings on Russian UGV's to hold down pallets lifted by all terrain forklifts and telehandlers.

[Hey, @TimothyDooner! Rate this strap work⬇️]

2/
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I mean, seriously, Russia is now introducing a camel transport corps because the Russian startups and big defense contractors cannot produce supply UGV's at scale to deliver potable water to front line troops.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
This 🧵by @GrandpaRoy2 demonstrating the increasing battlefield obsolescence of tube artillery in the face of fiber optic fiber guided FPV drones is a useful jumping off point the following:

66% of RuAF AFV's & equipment killed in Jan 2025 were victims of drones

Drone tech🧵
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Back in November 2024 I did a long thread on how drones were an "effectiveness revolution" on the battlefield and we would see drones displacing other battlefield weapons because of it.

2/
Drones are a cost effectiveness revolution compared to conventional weapons.

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Read 12 tweets

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