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Mike Honey Profile picture
@Mike_Honey_
Apr 6 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Here's an animated map showing the spread of the XFJ variant. The first sample was detected in Cote d'Ivoire in late August. After a long pause, a second sample was detected in South Africa in Dec. Then it appeared in New York in late Feb and began spreading more widely.
🧵
Recently classified XFJ is a recombinant of LF.7 and LS.2. LF.7 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. LS.2 was descended from JN.1.18.5.
🧵
Audio credit: Swarm_Bees_outdoor_stereo by leonseptavaux -- -- License: Attribution 4.0
🧵 endsfreesound.org/s/573839/

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 6
With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 XFH and new XFJ.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH #XFJ
🧵 Image
I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. There are more recent samples available, but the frequency analysis becomes increasingly distorted due to low volumes and patchy coverage.
🧵
LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.

LF.7.7.2 has been most successful in Canada (especially Quebec), rising to 8% frequency. The US has grown to 3%.
🧵 Image
Read 20 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 5
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth might be wobbling a bit, at around 47%.

The XEC.* variant has declined to around 21%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to around 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 50-60%.
🧵 Image
For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.3% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵 Image
Read 4 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 5
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant seemed to plateau at around 34%, with the XEC.* variant declining to 30%. Recent sample sizes are smaller so this might not be representative.

#COVID19 #Global #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Image
The LP.8.1.* variant shows a slowing growth advantage of 2.3% per day (16% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant, with a crossover in early March.
🧵 Image
Among the LP.8.1.* sub-lineages, the first child lineage LP.8.1.1 has been the most successful, with accelerating growth in recent samples.
🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Mar 30
With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH
🧵 Image
I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.
🧵
LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.

LF.7.7.2 has been most successful in Canada, rising to 12% frequency. The US has reported growth to 4%.
🧵 Image
Read 14 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Mar 29
Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.

The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency.

The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.

#COVID19 #EUR #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Image
Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.
🧵
For Europe (excluding the UK), the LP.8.1.* variant shows an accelerating growth advantage of 4.4% per day (31% per week) over the dominant XEC.* variant. That predicts a crossover in mid-March (the data routinely lags).
🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Mar 29
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.

The LP.8.1.* variant has continued to grow steadily to around 49%.

The XEC.* variant continued to fall, down to around 19%.

#COVID19 #USA #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting LP.8.1.*.

Strong growth continued in Illinois to 70%, and there is strong growth also in New York and New Jersey to 54-56%.
🧵 Image
For the US, the LP.8.1.* variant shows a growth advantage of 3.3% per day (24% per week) over the XEC.* variant, with a crossover in mid-February.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets

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