Thread by @laurnorman

Iran stands its ground — for now. “Indirect” talks only possible. Trump wants direct. So a complete standoff? I suspect no. Here’s the kind of very plausible scenario that could resolve. I stress this is speculative not info based. -1-

https://twitter.com/irannuances/status/1908939324973859259

Iran and the US set a meeting in let’s say Oman which Iran says is going to be mediated by Omanis and not direct. Trump admin refuses to get drawn on format. Two+ day meeting, let’s starts in the indirect Biden admin format. -2-say.it

On the second day, Iran briefs media that talks have been constructive and the U.S. side is showing a genuine interest in negotiations. On evening of second day, omanis happen to bring Iran and Americans into same room for half an hour and there’s some cursory direct talk. -3-

That then sets the scene for Trump to say US had direct talks and Iran to say the real negotiations in Oman were indirect. But there was some introductory pleasantries. Ice is broken. That opens the way for direct talks in Round two. -4-

Again, this is purely speculative and not source based. But having followed this business for close to 15 yrs, it’s the kind of diplomatic trickery that happens not infrequently. And allows both sides to save face and opens way for some real negotiations on gulf in positions-5-