Iran stands its ground — for now. “Indirect” talks only possible. Trump wants direct. So a complete standoff? I suspect no. Here’s the kind of very plausible scenario that could resolve. I stress this is speculative not info based. -1-

https://twitter.com/irannuances/status/1908939324973859259

Iran and the US set a meeting in let’s say Oman which Iran says is going to be mediated by Omanis and not direct. Trump admin refuses to get drawn on format. Two+ day meeting, let’s starts in the indirect Biden admin format. -2-say.it

Let’s examine the facts. 1/ the JCPOA dealt with this issue though Tehran successfully limited scope of language on missiles 2/ i very much doubt there is any discussion of preventing Iran having missiles that can reach throughout its region.

https://twitter.com/yossarianr/status/1880582227899347107

3/ there is great concern and already sanctions on Iran giving missiles to militia groups and Russia. Iran can resist that pressure but to suggest it’s wrong for Europeans to push for including this is odd. The plan is a negotiation. Including a regional part. Each side will…-2-

"They are in a lot of trouble," @marcorubio on #Iran Rubio says he imagines there are two camps of people in #Iran regime. 1/ those seeking an “off ramp” and “buy ourselves some time.” 2/ Another camp saying we need to prove we are “a nuclear power or nuclear capable power.” He says “this is a tenuous moment in that regard.” -2-

In the first sign of serious engagement with the post-Assad #Syria, the EU is likely to ease some key sectoral sanctions on the country on Jan 26th, though as ever it will need approval by all 27 countries. The sanctions proposals are set up in a German paper, which... was circulated in Brussels. Reminder that @ABaerbock and @jnbarrot made a joint trip to Damascus last week. Until now, EU officials have been very tight lipped on when they might move on sanctions. And the Franco-German foreign mins trip didn't seem to move needle on this. -2-

These are days when Iran moves ever closer to the nuclear brink. Last week the warnings from French and British intel on Iran proliferation. Last night a US @ODNIgov report gives sharpest warning yet of nuke weapons risk. And today, the @rafaelmgrossi report on expanding HEU. -1- Out story wrapping up all the latest. With @mgordonwsj. -2-wsj.com/world/middle-e…

Ok. Winding back a bit here having seen the transcript. Not sure @JosepBorrellF remarks are quite as @joshrogin described. But to be fair his remarks are all over the shop. Here’s transcript. eeas.europa.eu/eeas/shangri-l…

https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1796872384525324716

He does clearly state that Chinese supplies are not in same category as Nkorea and Iran in sense that they are not military items per se but that there’s lots of non arms exports from China that have military use. -2-

Even as Iran became effectively a threshold nuclear weapons state in recent years, many officials and observers thought Khamenei and leadership saw the costs of going nuclear higher than the benefits for now. Has that changed? My latest. wsj.com/world/middle-e… There are different views on this and the consensus is probably that Iran sees building a bomb at this point as an unnecessary risk. But the Gaza conflict and Iran's attack on Israel suggest Tehran's risk gauge may have changed and that's testing old assumptions. -2-

A little footnote of G7 diplo wranglings in our story on Israel's next moves bylined by my excellent colleagues @DovLieber @cjkeller8 and @AnatPeled1 We got first draft of the G7 leaders statement on Saturday's Iran attacks. It underwent big changes. -1-wsj.com/world/middle-e… The original draft labeled Iran’s actions “reckless” and said Iran had “crossed yet another line” in destabilizing the region. It expressed “unconditional” solidarity with Israel and an “ironclad” -- the Biden phrase --G-7 commitment toward its security. -2-

Language for EU ammo target over the next 12 months for Ukraine is now looser. EU will be "aiming at" a million shells over the next year. But there is still a discussion over whether to allow purchases of ammo from foreign countries. That has not been fully settled yet. So that will go to ministers despite claims there is a deal. -2-

E3 Statement at IAEA Board: gov.uk/government/spe… -1- "We note that following discussions between the Director General and Vice-President Eslami, and that, due to the Director General’s efforts, a Joint Statement was agreed on 4 March where Iran agreed “on a voluntary basis” to “allow the IAEA to implement further appropriate" -2-

As I suspected on Saturday, @rafaelmgrossi narrative about what happened in Tehran last week is partially unravelling under questioning by @francoismurphy. His clear answers Sat eve about what was agreed are sounding much less certain today. #Iran -1- So on the Fordow inspections, the number of monthly visits remains at 11, as was agreed by DDG in previous trip. Went from 8 to 11. That's Grossi's 50% claim. But there was no agreement to raise it further in Tehran last week -2-

Behind @ZelenskyyUa tour of European capitals, some extraordinary diplomatic jostling took place behind the scenes, we report tonight. With @MaximColch & @bopanc wsj.com/articles/ukrai… @EmmanuelMacron @eucopresident -1- Michel had pushed for the trip when he was in Kyiv on Jan 19th. @ZelenskyyUa was reluctant because of perfectly reasonable security concerns. But he warmed to idea in recent weeks & was already leaning towards when EU leaders in Kyiv last week. -2-

Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia pressing today in a letter on use of frozen assets for Ukraine. "However in order to be credible on this matter vis-a-vis Ukraine, we must go beyond reiterating our commitment & accelerate our work in the Council right now." -1- "All assets should be used to cover the costs of Russian aggression against Ukraine, including to support Ukraine internally displaced people, as well as to the benefit of the future reconstruction of Ukraine." -2-

Just ran: Interview with @JosepBorrellF from Ukraine on the #Irandeal and its prospects. wsj.com/articles/eus-t… -1- On a secure train returning from an EU trip to Kyiv, @JosepBorrellF told @WSJ that critics of his efforts to revive the pact perhaps “don’t value enough” dangers of nuclear Iran. “As far as I know, there is not an alternative to this deal to try to avoid Iran becoming nuclear"-2-

@HankeVela @alanbeattie This really isn't unexpected. It's expected. It has been likely she'd go for a couple of weeks as I've tweeted. @HankeVela @alanbeattie Indeed, as i said earlier, one of the UK conditions was that a non-EU country host it next time and Britain was keen. It's a way of locking in their main concern -- that this becomes a mere EU+ Brussels dominated format.

Thank god we didn’t send those modern tanks. Or Putin would have escalated. On a less sarcastic note, what does this say about Putin’s utter disrespect for institutions like UN and for those all too many heads of state trying to stay neutral on this? He does it right in the middle of UNGA where so many of the neutrals are pleasing for conflict end.

Lots of attention reasonably on Raisi's comments to @60Minutes about the Holocaust but less on his response to questions about his alleged role in killing of opposition political prisoners. Yet the response is extraordinary whatever your views of the MeK. Here's transcript: -1- Q: I want to ask you about your own record. There is a personal sanction against you. You took part in a commission that was responsible for executing up to 5,000 political dissidents. They were hanged or shot by firing squad. I want to ask if you regret that action.-2-

Pretty stinging rebuke of Russia by IAEA board. 26 in favor and 2 against. (Russia, China), The board "expresses grave concern that the Russian Federation has not heeded the call of the Board to immediately cease all actions against and at nuclear facilities in Ukraine;" -1- The board "deplores the Russian Federation’s persistent violent actions against nuclear facilities in Ukraine, including forcefully seizing of control of nuclear facilities and other violent actions in connection with a number of nuclear facilities and other" -2-

It’s an excellent touch that @vonderleyen flew to Kyiv after the State of EU speech. BUT it’s a democratic deficit that after the SOTEU annual speeches, Commission presidents don’t do big press conference to be quizzed on speech/proposals. It’s a serious lack of scrutiny. There were so many headline grabbing proposals, from single market access for Ukraine to global gateway with Biden and Defense of democracy pact that she should have been asked about. Of course, there’s time for these proposals to be fleshed out. But if she can announce them...

E3: “In this final package, the Coordinator made additional changes that took us to the limit of our flexibility. Unfortunately, Iran has chosen not to seize this critical diplomatic opportunity.” -1- “Instead, Iran continues to escalate its nuclear program way beyond any plausible civilian justification. While we were edging closer to an agreement, Iran reopened separate issues that relate to its legally binding international obligations under the Non Proliferation Treaty”-2-

A couple of new tidbits on #IranTalks. My understanding is that while #Iran is seeking a change to the safeguards text the EU offered, that's mainly on intended date to close probe by Confirmation Day. It is not explicitly seeking upfront guarantee that probe will be closed. -1- Separately, my understanding is that all excess centrifuges of type mentioned as permissible in deal (IR-1, IR-2, IR-2M, IR-4/6/8) will be removed and kept under seal whole. Only the experimental centrifuges of other types (IR-9s) will be effectively dismantled.-2-