We look at what Pickaxe Mountain tunnels site is and what it isn’t.
And why it could be a harder aerial hit than Fordow.

wsj.com/world/middle-e… Construction work at Pickaxe appears incomplete and it is unclear whether any activity, nuclear or otherwise, is happening there. During Israeli and U.S. air attacks on Iran last year and this year, it wasn’t considered important enough to warrant strikes. -2-

It hasn’t been given any attention but among the “sanctions” relief given to Iran is a wipeout of IAEA board resolutions under a final agreement offered by Trump administration. Here’s the wording -1- The U.S. “undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions.” -2-

There’s a real question mark over what nuclear commitments Iran has made in an MoU. There’s a suggestion from a senior U.S. official that they made commitments on stockpile, decommissioning sites, stopping nuclear program. But a closer look suggests some of that is deceptive. -1- So let’s dissect what’s going on here. A US official was asked if Iran had committed to a specific timeline for dismantling its program. Here’s the answer… -2-

So just as there was a misunderstanding before Tuesday that negotiators had, somehow, to draw up a resolution to US-Iran differences, instead of come up with something which would get the two sides sitting down for talks, there's a new misunderstanding now. There is simply no -1- way that Iran and the U.S. are going to resolve the issues around Hormuz, nuclear, missiles etc in the next 2 weeks. It's not going to happen. Impossible.
But it doesn't need to happen.
What needs to happen is enough to trigger the mutually agreed extension of talks-2-

There were a lot of claims made last night by US officials including apparent intel that Iran considered attacking US first which deserve scrutiny.
But on nuclear negotiations, there's every reason to believe that Tehran completely misread situation. -1- wsj.com/world/middle-e… The full story of exactly what Iran asked for in Geneva has I think not been told. My understanding comes from non-U.S. officials close to the talks as well as what Washington has said.
This is what we have from 3 people. -2-

Thread #Irantalks: The 2013 vibes around #Irantalks are very strong right now. We have Iran, which insists its right to enrich uranium is a legal certainty, nonetheless extremely extremely keen/determined to get the Trump administration to recognise it. -1- Hence all this talk in public from Araghchi and others about not taking one step back, warning that to do so, would be to signal retreat across the board. Pre-2013, Iran similarly refused compromise until its enrichment rights were recognised by U.S. -2-

Iran reports @iaeaorg "The quantity of HEU produced & accumulated by Iran, the only NPT non-nuclear-weapon State to have done so, which remains in Iran without the Agency being able to verify it...is a matter of serious concern and a matter..." -1- "of compliance with the NPT Safeguards Agreement." Report says @rafaelmgrossi "has made clear to Iran that it is indispensable and urgent to implement
safeguards activities in Iran in accordance with the NPT Safeguards Agreement, which remains in force,
and that..." -2-

So @araghchi is saying he made a serious offer yesterday to E3. The E3 is saying it was unsatisfactory as tweeted earlier. So what was the offer? I now have a picture from a few sources. -1- - Iran would pledge to meet with Witkoff/US. Not clear if that would be direct/indirect. For that, US must give guarantee of no attacks.
In exchange for Iran pledge to meet, E3 would have to pledge to extend snapback. -2-

Assuming snapback happens tomorrow, there's a lot of confusion over what happens next under the 30 day period. It's best explained to say that we effectively enter a new phase of negotiation at least for the first 10 days... Under the mechanism that i think is being used for the first time, the presidency of the UNSC has to put forward a resolution after 10 days which offers to cancel snapback. That can be vetoed in the normal way by Britain, France or the US (or Russia and China.) And then we'd -2-

A thread around the @Gharibabadi comments today in NY, which @mgordonwsj and I storified here. There's an intricate game going on that may not be clear enough to those who aren't following closely. -1-wsj.com/world/middle-e… Last Friday, I reported here that the E3 had told Iran they were open to extending the October deadline for snapback if Iran could meet certain conditions. It was a critical potential concession that could change the way the pre-snapback summer events would flow. -2-

Perhaps it’s time to remind people of the most eye catching part of the comprehensive report. Not only did the iaea accuse Iran of providing no evidence of its claim of Israeli sabotage explaining the presence of undeclared nuclear material. It went further. It exposed Iranian -1 claim. I.A.E.A. pointed out that Iran had placed many cameras in a warehouse in the area of Turquz Abad yet Iran was unable to provide any evidence of the alleged sabotage. Iran claimed those cameras were only put there in late Sep 2018 so couldn’t have captured it. -2-

Just as there was too much hyping of the early successes of Israel’s op against Iran, there’s a danger of too much hyping now of the areas where israel appears not to have succeeded. Let’s take as an example the stockpile — an issue I’ve been raising for 18 months as a problem-1- So let’s assume Iran has full control of it. Which seems likely. What does it now do? IAEA will want inspectors there to check caskets and amounts. Iran can delay a few days. Then what? If access and a full accounting of it is refused, what is Iran saying to Trump and US? -2-

Cometh the Iran moment. Comment the Europeans. For the first time since Trump took office, possibly for the first time since 2022, the Europeans have a real role on the future on Iran’s nuclear program and U.S.-Iran talks. For better or worse. Tomorrow’s meeting in Geneva…-1- could be importantly, offering the opportunity of an off ramp for Iran which puts US-Iran talks back in play. Of course, Washington may ignore what happens here. Iran may stick to all its old positions and red lines. But the talks could be an important point in the new 2-week…-2

"We do not see major damage" at Fordow, says @rafaelmgrossi to @amanpour. "i think there has been a significant setback but the enrichment capabilities still exist, yes." @rafaelmgrossi -2-

I am starting a thread here of things that are interesting details in the Comp report on #Iran. Much of this was kind of known. But some details are interesting.
Starts with 1/ Lavisan-Shian.-1- "Natural Uranium was drilled, processed and used in the production of explosively-driven neutron sources (EDNS, also referred to as ‘neutron initiators’) at Lavisan-Shian on at least two occasions in 2003. These EDNS use small quantities of natural or depleted uranium and are"-2-

As we look ahead to Comprehensive Report on Iran's nuclear program, it's worth recalling how one of the four "outstanding" issues the @iaeaorg was dropped. It's illustrative really of how the IAEA has provided what some might consider uber cooperation compared to Iran's little-1- The IAEA told Iran in 2022 that they belived Iran had conducted at a site called Lavisan-Shian undeclared work involving drilling and processing of natural uranium in the form of a metal disc. IAEA said this work, which could have nuclear weapon applications, was "concerning."-2-

UK ambo to US Mandelson on the status of the Iran deal. He backs the Witkoff no enrichment stance. "On iran, very simply this. Iran since the theocratic revolution took place has never been in a weaker state than it is now. weakened yes by economic sanctions, weakened..." -1- "by the heavy pounding that its proxies have taken. Weaker because of the growth of public opinion, especially amongst young people in iran away from the regime. Iran is vulnerable. But it still retains enrichment facilities which can produce...a nuclear bomb"-2-

A further reflection on the Trump statement that Iran has "sort of" agreed to the terms of a nuclear deal. History fact check. In early August 2022, @enriquemora_ proposed what he called a final text for a deal to return to the JCPoA. Iran replied on Aug. 15 asking for some -1- very minor changes but not demanding the IAEA drop its probe into nuclear material found in Iran a few years back. A deal was almost there. Then on Sep 1, Iran sent another reply this time going back to its demand that the IAEA probe was killed. In other words, the final -2-

So let me get the facts right. Per @BarakRavid, who I hold in highest respect, the U.S. has just on Sunday put its first formal proposal on table for a solution. Iran put its presentation on table in round 3 because @SteveWitkoff wasn't ready for that in Round 1. And yet, we... are close to a deal and Iran has "sort of" accepted Washington's approach. After one proposal. After a couple of rounds at best of some technical talks. After 20 years. And we have Shamkhani comments which entirely fit with JCPoA -- remove stockpile, do LEU and inspections. -2-

There's a very interesting section of Netanyahu speech at JNS which shouldn't be overlooked in the debate over Iran's involvement in Oct. 7th. Here's what Netanyahu said. "The most important thing that we had to do was to stop the invasion, which we did. And as we stopped..." -1- "the invasion and continued to take the fight into their territory, and of course, into Lebanon, which joined Hezbollah, joined the day after we learned basically one simple truth. We learned that Sinwar jumped the gun. He jumped the gun. He deviated from the plan..."-2-

Iran stands its ground — for now. “Indirect” talks only possible. Trump wants direct. So a complete standoff? I suspect no. Here’s the kind of very plausible scenario that could resolve. I stress this is speculative not info based. -1-

https://twitter.com/irannuances/status/1908939324973859259

Iran and the US set a meeting in let’s say Oman which Iran says is going to be mediated by Omanis and not direct. Trump admin refuses to get drawn on format. Two+ day meeting, let’s starts in the indirect Biden admin format. -2-say.it