Thread by @TrentTelenko

Russian railway repair trains derailing was one of the major phase change events I've been looking for in the story of the collapse via the capital rundown of the Russian railways engines & rolling stock.

Russian Rail system collapse🧵
1/
H/T @Prune602
kommersant.ru/doc/7637861

In particular, the downstream from the cut off of Western cassette rail bearings that last ~2 million km % (5.25 years of normal service) in April 2022 from Russian engines and rolling stock should be showing up in increased derailments.

2/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1806127696415715718

What I posted Aug 7, 2024 still holds.

The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:

1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.

2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.
3/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1821249917350023506

3rd the Russian repair trains derail on the way to open derailments. [Just Checked.]

4th we see triage as the Russian rail system starts collapsing on a LARGE SCALE. [Yep]

4/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1858300128802517030

5th, Russian rail transport apocalypse.

We are not at #5 yet, but Russian railway rolling stock being sent by truck in Nov 2024 to get around railway system blockages is not a sign of good Russian railway health.

5/

https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1858216492577477012

This @Prune602 chart shows Russian railways are off by 13% in tonnage loaded, but what it doesn't show are either the lies in the loading statistics or the crowding out of civilian goods transport in the Russian economy by military ones.

6/

A significant fraction of Russian railway rolling stock is being used as military storage in occupied Ukraine.

This has happened in every war involving railways and it is certainly happening right now in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

7/

I strongly suspect that Russian claims of 30 km long "mobile railway fortifications" were disinformation as to this time honored military screw up of using rail cars as mobile supply depots

8/

https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1756743717904347549

There is a high value added open source intelligence project in going through satellite images of Russian 2022 to 2025 railway traffic to identify where, when and how often these "rolling stock depots" have appeared in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

9/

Putin's kleptocracy is simply not the sort of government that could generate a leader like the American Union Army's Hermann Haupt or WW1 British Army Sir Eric Geddes who would clear up military rolling stock corruption.

This leadership issue was clear in April 2022

10/10 end

This is the referenced WW2 Russo-German railway logistics link:

hgwdavie.com/blog/2018/3/9/…

@threadreaderapp unroll please