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Lyn Alden Profile picture
@LynAldenContact
Apr 7 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
That's ultimately what's core to all of this.
Chapter 13 of Broken Money, or this November 2024 paper by Miran:
hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/h…
Context: Miran is Trump's chair of the Council of Economic Advisors
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…Image

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More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
Mar 6
I've got my fluctuating list of top-5 or top-10 of financial/macro interviewers, and there are many great ones out there.

But the unchanging #1 of that list for several years now has been @JackFarley96.

How do I rank this? By the % of their interviews I actually listen to.
🧵
I'm a case where I'm both a consumer of financial media, and an interviewee in financial media.

As a consumer, I want an interviewer to seek out great guests, research them thoroughly, and ask the right questions.

That's not always the most sensationalist viewcount stuff.
As a consumer, I also want to see pushback against popular guests. They do say the same thing a lot.

Interviewers struggle to get popular guests on their show. And so they tend to be nice, to get them again.

But the best shows involve some push and pull. Have the guts to push!
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Feb 22
Here's a thread about social media decentralization.

A couple years ago, I tried to "like" one of Doomberg's posts about a platform, and I literally saw the heart fill up, and then drain out of it like blood. I'd never seen that before.

Twitter said me liking that was disabled: Image
Then, when I tried to search on Twitter for that certain platform that apparently can't be named, the search results would replace it with "newsletter" in my search of the network, which was kind of Orwellian: Image
Even now, I don't say the obvious visible name of that platform that starts with an S. Since an unconscious algo might derank it.

Maybe that's not an issue anymore. Probably.

The funny thing is that I didn't even post about that platform until I couldn't. Then I did a lot.
Read 24 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Feb 22
I think disagreement is the engine of change. Good ideas win or lose on their merits.

It might be short-form memes or long-form articles and books. But you need to be able to win your arguments that way.

Force is the *last* resort, usually in defense from irrationality.

But.🧵
Maybe I’m old-fashioned.

I was always taught in martial arts to be polite until hit, but then to rekt whoever hit me or those I am responsible for.

I think that’s pretty fair. It is a very high hurdle before your ideas can hurt me or my family enough for me to hit back.
My father was more hardcore, though.

He actually told me to hit bullies *first*.

He had a hard life and won, and I disagreed with his views early on.

I thought that was too rough. Too mean. My mother said otherwise. My conscience said otherwise.

But he was adamant on this.
Read 15 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Jan 5
A lot of individual facts that the bears were saying in 2023 and 2024 were correct, but those facts were dwarfed by fiscal dominance. Image
For example, net bank loan creation was sluggish at just $300B over the past year.

But banks also bought $400B net in Treasuries. Image
Healthcare spending, DoD spending, Social Security spending, and interest expense just kept rolling. Image
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Nov 13, 2024
I keep seeing the chart float around of 23 million government employees, as though that's directly cuttable by the new Department of Government Efficiency.

Keep in mind that 3 million of those are listed as federal and the other 20+ million are state/local.

A thread. 🧵 Image
Image
Now, quantifying the actual federal workforce is actually nontrivial.
-Are we talking civilian, or military too (1.3M)?
-Are we including postal workers (550k)?

This WH report says 4.3 million federal workers with all of this, with breakdowns.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
But wait, there's more. There are also somewhere in the ballpark of 4 million federal contractors. The number fluctuates.

In 2023, $759 billion was committed to them.
gao.gov/blog/snapshot-…
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Nov 7, 2024
Along with Steve Lee @moneyball and Ren @0xren_cf, I co-authored a paper that analyzes the process and risks of how Bitcoin upgrades its consensus rules over time, from a technical & economic perspective.

Here's a 🧵

You can check it out here:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Here's the v1.0 PDF version:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Bitcoin is hard to change by design, and the methods of how it changes have evolved as the network has grown.

In the paper, we analyze what consensus is, and how different types of entities have different incentives and powers during the course of a potential consensus change.
Read 7 tweets

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