Mikhail Khodorkovsky Profile picture
Apr 8 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Trump made it clear: "We're talking to Russia. We'd like him to stop. I don't like the bombing."

As the US pushes for peace, Putin responds with strikes on Zelensky's hometown — and shows what he truly fears: diplomacy, not sanctions.

🧵Read on to understand his logic
Putin deliberately targeted Zelensky's hometown precisely when peace discussions are emerging. His aim is transparent - force Ukraine's leadership to either abandon peace negotiations or sacrifice public support at home.
After such brutal attacks, populations naturally demand retaliation. Should Zelensky pursue this path, peace talks collapse along with American military support before Putin's planned summer offensive. We witnessed the devastating consequences of supply disruptions last year.
Alternatively, if Zelensky exercises restraint, he sacrifices his political standing. For Putin, both outcomes serve his interests. The price of this "brilliant strategy" is paid in human lives, including children's. Putin and his gang have demonstrated their indifference to this cost for over a decade.
I am convinced that stopping this madness will take demonstrating to Putin that his summer offensive will fail definitively. For this, President Trump could could fast-track a substantial Ukrainian military aid package through Congress - $100 billion annually would prove sufficient.
This could be structured as an amendment to a mineral resources agreement with Ukraine and would make it it politically viable for Zelensky at home.
As someone who has observed Putin's strategic evolution since his earliest days in power, I recognize the pattern in Kryvyi Rih - create pressure points when negotiations appear possible. The response must be equally calculated and decisive.

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More from @khodorkovsky_en

Apr 7
Harvard Researcher Kseniia Petrova has been detained when returning to the U.S. on February 16, 2025.

She had frog embryos and she didn’t properly declare them. Border agents decided this warranted taking away her J-1 visa and deporting her.

🧵Petrova was arrested in Russia for protesting invasion of Ukraine. Here’s her storyImage
According to Petrova’s attorney, upon her detention, CBP officials asked her whether they should notify the Russian government, to which she clearly responded: “I am scared to go back to Russia. I am afraid the Russian Federation will kill me for protesting against them.”
Petrova was arrested in Russia in 2022 for protesting against the war in Ukraine and calling for Putin's impeachment. Now she sits in an ICE facility in Louisiana, waiting for a May 7 hearing that could extend for months.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 2
Ukraine is dominating the Black Sea after crippling Russia's fleet.

But new US-brokered maritime deals could jeopardize that.

Here's why this isn't looking like the "second grain deal" everyone wanted: 👇 Image
The US last week announced agreements with both Russia and Ukraine aimed at reducing tension in the Black Sea. The idea is to ensure safe navigation and prevent commercial ships from being used for military purposes.
There’s no trilateral deal, just two separate agreements. At best, this is the first step towards a binding trilateral agreement. And a closer look shows that Russia is walking away with the better end of the bargain
Read 14 tweets
Apr 1
As I've warned all along: Putin is a bandit.

When talking to bandits, you must always show the club behind your back. Because if you don't, they think you have none.

🧵Read on to understand how he thinks Image
Promising 25% tariffs on those who buy Russian oil means imposing tariffs on China and India, with unpredictable consequences. The response may be surprising to Trump's team if there are no prior agreements.
Perhaps it's time to discuss, alongside new rare earth metals agreements, restoring Lend-Lease - providing Ukraine with $100 billion in weapons over the next 12 months.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 29
As Putin proposes "external administration" for Ukraine, he's not seeking territory—he's measuring how far he can go while America contemplates its role in the conflict.

The current stage of peace talks is revealing more than it seems.

🧵Here are 3 things that stand out—and what they mean going forward.
1. Escalation is deliberate, not reactive

Putin's announcement about external administration of Ukraine says one thing – he is being traditional about testing the sharp rise of stakes. Judging by the rules presented to the US and Trump in that same speech, there's an expectation that the current US administration favors increased pressure on the Ukrainian authorities.
2. Ukraine is caught in an economic and diplomatic vice

This coincided with the emergence of a new, more stringent version of the agreement on "rare-Earth metals". Ukraine has been caught in a vice and easing the pressure with French and German help won't be easy. But the prospects are cloudy, and not only for Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
Russia's secret fleet: How "floating scrap" tankers are evading sanctions and creating an environmental time bomb.

🧵@dossier_center investigation exposes the dangerous shell game playing out in international waters
Dossier tracked one such vessel, the Morpheus, which is anchored off Cyprus. It never leaves the area. Instead, it receives Russian oil from inbound tankers and offloads it to others, masking its Russian origin through a series of transfers
On Feb 19, Dossier filmed the Voula, a tanker from Novorossiysk, transferring 30,000 tons of oil products to the Morpheus off Limassol. The operation took place in neutral waters —beyond the legal reach of Cyprus or the EU
Read 21 tweets
Mar 21
The Soviet regime couldn't break him with forced psychiatry. Now Putin's Russia has sentenced 67-year-old Alexander Skobkov to 16 years. Image
Skobov was twice sentenced to three years of punitive psychiatry in 1978 and 1985 because of his activism against the Soviet dictatorship. Now, his continued resistance to tyranny has landed him in prison
He was convicted by a St Petersburg court of ‘justifying terrorism’ over his prior participation in the democratic Free Russia Forum, as well as a Telegram post he made about the explosion on the bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea
Read 9 tweets

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