Trump just triggered a global shockwave:
➤ 125% tariffs on China
➤ 90-day pause for 75+ countries
Markets panicked. China retaliated.
But beneath the noise is a masterplan of chaos and control that most miss.
Here’s the real play 🧵👇
➤ 125% tariffs on China
➤ 90-day pause for 75+ countries
Markets panicked. China retaliated.
But beneath the noise is a masterplan of chaos and control that most miss.
Here’s the real play 🧵👇
1) April 2: The Opening Shock – Chaos by Design
➤ Trump slaps 10% base tariff on $2.7T of U.S. imports
➤ Adds 11–50% “reciprocal tariffs” on 90+ nations
💥 In 6 days:
• Global market cap loses $5.1T (Reuters)
• SPY: –12.7%a
• VIX: 24.4 (CBOE)
• Dollar Index (DXY): –1.8%
• 10-yr yields: spike to 4.82%
This wasn’t panic. It was provocation.
📌Logic:
1. Trump weaponized volatility to force global attention
2. Created a "fear premium" to gain negotiation leverage
3. Exposed which economies cracked the fastest
4. Collected real-time pressure data to guide the next moves
➤ Trump slaps 10% base tariff on $2.7T of U.S. imports
➤ Adds 11–50% “reciprocal tariffs” on 90+ nations
💥 In 6 days:
• Global market cap loses $5.1T (Reuters)
• SPY: –12.7%a
• VIX: 24.4 (CBOE)
• Dollar Index (DXY): –1.8%
• 10-yr yields: spike to 4.82%
This wasn’t panic. It was provocation.
📌Logic:
1. Trump weaponized volatility to force global attention
2. Created a "fear premium" to gain negotiation leverage
3. Exposed which economies cracked the fastest
4. Collected real-time pressure data to guide the next moves
2) 🇨🇳China’s Response: Precision Retaliation
Between April 4–9:
➤ 84% tariffs on $162B U.S. goods
➤ Rare earth export ban (semis, EVs, defense hit)
➤ Yuan falls to 7.28/USD (–2.1%)
➤ Q1 U.S. exports to China: –12.4% (China Customs)
📌Logic:
1. China targeted Trump’s voter base: agri, autos, tech
2. Rare earth ban = economic pressure + nationalist messaging
3. Devaluation = FX shield against tariffs
4. Xi is playing for the long game absorb the pain now, and wait for Trump to overplay
Between April 4–9:
➤ 84% tariffs on $162B U.S. goods
➤ Rare earth export ban (semis, EVs, defense hit)
➤ Yuan falls to 7.28/USD (–2.1%)
➤ Q1 U.S. exports to China: –12.4% (China Customs)
📌Logic:
1. China targeted Trump’s voter base: agri, autos, tech
2. Rare earth ban = economic pressure + nationalist messaging
3. Devaluation = FX shield against tariffs
4. Xi is playing for the long game absorb the pain now, and wait for Trump to overplay
3) April 9: The Pivot - Not a Pause, a Power Move
➤ Trump pauses higher tariffs for 75+ countries (10% flat)
➤ China alone gets hit harder — 125%
➤ USMCA partners: 0–25% (rule-based)
📈 Market reaction:
• S&P 500: +9.5%
• SPY: +11.8%
• Nasdaq: +10.1%
📌Logic:
1. Split the world: reward friends, punish foes
2. Created negotiating space while isolating China
3. Gave allies incentive to stay neutral
4. Showed markets: “Trump can reverse damage fast”
➤ Trump pauses higher tariffs for 75+ countries (10% flat)
➤ China alone gets hit harder — 125%
➤ USMCA partners: 0–25% (rule-based)
📈 Market reaction:
• S&P 500: +9.5%
• SPY: +11.8%
• Nasdaq: +10.1%
📌Logic:
1. Split the world: reward friends, punish foes
2. Created negotiating space while isolating China
3. Gave allies incentive to stay neutral
4. Showed markets: “Trump can reverse damage fast”
What was this pivot?
4) Trump’s Team Confirms: “This Was All Planned”
Scott Bessent (U.S. Treasury Sec):
“Trump baited China. The pause rewards cooperation.”
📌Logic:
1. Chaos = leverage
2. Pause = control
3. Public statement = psychological play
4. Bessent’s quote = signal to markets: “We’re steering this ship”
Scott Bessent (U.S. Treasury Sec):
“Trump baited China. The pause rewards cooperation.”
📌Logic:
1. Chaos = leverage
2. Pause = control
3. Public statement = psychological play
4. Bessent’s quote = signal to markets: “We’re steering this ship”
5) 🕵️Leaked USTR Memo: The Mineral Exemption Trap
📄 April 8 draft (USTR):
➤ Lithium, graphite, and cobalt exempted from new tariffs
🔋 China supplies:
• Lithium: 68%
• Graphite: 82%
• Cobalt: 61%
📌Logic:
1. Pre-empted China’s rare earth ban neutralized their biggest card
2. Protected U.S. EV, defense & tech sectors
3. Secured Tesla, Apple, Raytheon supply chains
4. Shows the real war isn’t over goods it’s over resources
📄 April 8 draft (USTR):
➤ Lithium, graphite, and cobalt exempted from new tariffs
🔋 China supplies:
• Lithium: 68%
• Graphite: 82%
• Cobalt: 61%
📌Logic:
1. Pre-empted China’s rare earth ban neutralized their biggest card
2. Protected U.S. EV, defense & tech sectors
3. Secured Tesla, Apple, Raytheon supply chains
4. Shows the real war isn’t over goods it’s over resources
6) Tariff Map - Not Random, But Calculated
📌Logic:
1. Different tariffs = different messages
2. Vietnam’s pause = bait to pull ASEAN away from China
3. USMCA differentiation = pressure for compliance
4. Signals to WTO: “We’re strategic, not erratic”
📌Logic:
1. Different tariffs = different messages
2. Vietnam’s pause = bait to pull ASEAN away from China
3. USMCA differentiation = pressure for compliance
4. Signals to WTO: “We’re strategic, not erratic”
7) Markets Bounced - But Smart Money Stayed Wary
• Wayfair: +20.3%
• Levi’s: +18.7%
• Tesla: +7.8%
• Raytheon: +5.4%
• Gold: +3.2%
• Oil: +4.2%
• VIX: 24+
📌Logic:
1. Markets cheered relief
2. But VIX stayed high → fear of Round 2
3. Bond yields stayed sticky → inflation risk priced in
4. Hedge funds buying downside protection = not over yet
• Wayfair: +20.3%
• Levi’s: +18.7%
• Tesla: +7.8%
• Raytheon: +5.4%
• Gold: +3.2%
• Oil: +4.2%
• VIX: 24+
📌Logic:
1. Markets cheered relief
2. But VIX stayed high → fear of Round 2
3. Bond yields stayed sticky → inflation risk priced in
4. Hedge funds buying downside protection = not over yet
8) 🇨🇳China’s Game: Absorb, Rewire, Delay
➤ $25B agri hit
➤ $15B auto exports blocked
➤ $8B rare earth disruption
➤ EU exports: +9% (Eurostat)
📌Logic:
1. Rewiring trade to Europe = soft landing
2. Buying time as domestic growth slows
3. Rare earth play wins propaganda + political time
4. Strategy: “Let Trump peak too early”
➤ $25B agri hit
➤ $15B auto exports blocked
➤ $8B rare earth disruption
➤ EU exports: +9% (Eurostat)
📌Logic:
1. Rewiring trade to Europe = soft landing
2. Buying time as domestic growth slows
3. Rare earth play wins propaganda + political time
4. Strategy: “Let Trump peak too early”
9)📚Smoot-Hawley Flashback? Yes… and No.
1930:
• Avg. tariff: 59%
• Global trade: –66%
• U.S. GDP: –30%
2025:
• U.S. → China: 125%
• China → U.S.: 84%
📌Logic:
1. Same tools, different intent
2. Trump = using tariffs for negotiation, not protection
3. But history shows: this can still spiral
4. One wrong move → 2008 + 1930 combo
1930:
• Avg. tariff: 59%
• Global trade: –66%
• U.S. GDP: –30%
2025:
• U.S. → China: 125%
• China → U.S.: 84%
📌Logic:
1. Same tools, different intent
2. Trump = using tariffs for negotiation, not protection
3. But history shows: this can still spiral
4. One wrong move → 2008 + 1930 combo
10) Allies: Grateful... but Cautious
• 🇯🇵 Japan: “Relief, but concern”
• 🇪🇺 EU: $40B retaliation fund on standby
• 🇨🇦 Canada: $13B duties prepared
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: +15% exports post-pause
📌Logic:
1. Allies are hedging
2. U.S. unpredictability = risk
3. Some will talk with both U.S. + China
4. They love the pause - not the policy
• 🇯🇵 Japan: “Relief, but concern”
• 🇪🇺 EU: $40B retaliation fund on standby
• 🇨🇦 Canada: $13B duties prepared
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: +15% exports post-pause
📌Logic:
1. Allies are hedging
2. U.S. unpredictability = risk
3. Some will talk with both U.S. + China
4. They love the pause - not the policy
11) U.S. Pain: Consumers Already Feeling It
• 75% expect inflation
• iPhone projected: $2,300
• Manufacturing PMI: 48.2
• Confidence: 3-year low
• Jobless claims: +8K
📌Logic:
1. Tariffs = hidden tax
2. Consumer slowdown coming
3. Trump is forcing CEOs to reshore, not rely
4. Political gamble: “Short-term pain, long-term sovereignty”
• 75% expect inflation
• iPhone projected: $2,300
• Manufacturing PMI: 48.2
• Confidence: 3-year low
• Jobless claims: +8K
📌Logic:
1. Tariffs = hidden tax
2. Consumer slowdown coming
3. Trump is forcing CEOs to reshore, not rely
4. Political gamble: “Short-term pain, long-term sovereignty”
Will this backfire domestically?
12) The Endgame: Not Trade. Control.
➤ Fix $1.23T deficit
➤ Secure EV, defense, pharma supply
➤ Pressure China in isolation
➤ Create new trade blocs with leverage
📌Logic:
1. This is economic statecraft
2. Goal: independence from China
3. Create asymmetric pressure - U.S. can absorb more pain
4. Trade = leverage, not cooperation anymore
➤ Fix $1.23T deficit
➤ Secure EV, defense, pharma supply
➤ Pressure China in isolation
➤ Create new trade blocs with leverage
📌Logic:
1. This is economic statecraft
2. Goal: independence from China
3. Create asymmetric pressure - U.S. can absorb more pain
4. Trade = leverage, not cooperation anymore
13) The Big Split: Experts Can’t Agree
• Krugman: “Economic suicide”
• Summers: “Govt. by chaos”
• Navarro: “China’s trapped”
• Musk: “Zero tariffs is the goal, this is the path”
📌Logic:
1. There’s no consensus
2. That is the strategy
3. Confusion = power
4. Trump wins when nobody knows the next move
• Krugman: “Economic suicide”
• Summers: “Govt. by chaos”
• Navarro: “China’s trapped”
• Musk: “Zero tariffs is the goal, this is the path”
📌Logic:
1. There’s no consensus
2. That is the strategy
3. Confusion = power
4. Trump wins when nobody knows the next move
14) Was this chaos a plan? Or panic?
✅ Plan:
• Exemptions dated before reversal
• Allies pre-briefed for pause
• Market bounce suggests confidence
⚠️ Panic:
• 13-hr reversal
• No WTO coordination
• Ally distrust rising
📌 Truth?
It was a high-speed tactical pivot - calculated improvisation.
✅ Plan:
• Exemptions dated before reversal
• Allies pre-briefed for pause
• Market bounce suggests confidence
⚠️ Panic:
• 13-hr reversal
• No WTO coordination
• Ally distrust rising
📌 Truth?
It was a high-speed tactical pivot - calculated improvisation.
What do you think?
15) The 90-Day Clock Is Ticking
Scenarios by July:
A) China cuts a deal = Trump wins
B) China retaliates again = trade war 2.0
C) Allies drift away = U.S. isolated
D) U.S. slides into recession -1.5% GDP (Oxford)
📌Logic:
1. Leverage is peaking - so is risk
2. Trump wants a win before election season
3. Xi wants to delay without losing face
4. Markets are bracing - not celebrating
Scenarios by July:
A) China cuts a deal = Trump wins
B) China retaliates again = trade war 2.0
C) Allies drift away = U.S. isolated
D) U.S. slides into recession -1.5% GDP (Oxford)
📌Logic:
1. Leverage is peaking - so is risk
2. Trump wants a win before election season
3. Xi wants to delay without losing face
4. Markets are bracing - not celebrating
16) Real-Time Trade Shifts Have Already Begun
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam ➝ U.S.: +15%
• 🇨🇳 China ➝ EU: +9%
• 🇲🇽 Mexico ➝ U.S.: +4%
• Rare earths: +18% in 48 hrs
📌 The future is being redrawn right now.
Every tariff has reshaped global flows overnight.
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam ➝ U.S.: +15%
• 🇨🇳 China ➝ EU: +9%
• 🇲🇽 Mexico ➝ U.S.: +4%
• Rare earths: +18% in 48 hrs
📌 The future is being redrawn right now.
Every tariff has reshaped global flows overnight.
17) Exclusive: Trump’s Taiwan Chip Pact?
📌Insider sources:
Trump’s team is close to finalizing a semiconductor co-production deal with Taiwan — announcement expected by June 2025
📌Logic:
1. Cuts China’s tech influence
2. Secures chip supply
3. Reinforces Taiwan-US alliance
4. Psychological escalation
📌Insider sources:
Trump’s team is close to finalizing a semiconductor co-production deal with Taiwan — announcement expected by June 2025
📌Logic:
1. Cuts China’s tech influence
2. Secures chip supply
3. Reinforces Taiwan-US alliance
4. Psychological escalation
18) Final Takeaway
Trump’s 2025 tariff war is:
✅ Bold
✅ Strategic
✅ Risky
❓ Still unfolding
He’s not trying to “fix trade.”
He’s trying to remake the system.
Trump’s 2025 tariff war is:
✅ Bold
✅ Strategic
✅ Risky
❓ Still unfolding
He’s not trying to “fix trade.”
He’s trying to remake the system.
What’s the most likely 90-day outcome?
🔁 If this opened your eyes to what’s really happening behind Trump’s tariffs, RT it.
📩 Bookmark it — you’ll want to revisit this when the 90-day clock hits zero.
📲 Follow @CaVivekkhatri for elite macro insights, trade war intelligence, and geopolitical power plays — decoded daily.
🧠 Don’t just scroll headlines.
Understand the game.
This wasn’t just a thread - it was your intel brief.
Welcome to economic warfare.
#End 🧵
📩 Bookmark it — you’ll want to revisit this when the 90-day clock hits zero.
📲 Follow @CaVivekkhatri for elite macro insights, trade war intelligence, and geopolitical power plays — decoded daily.
🧠 Don’t just scroll headlines.
Understand the game.
This wasn’t just a thread - it was your intel brief.
Welcome to economic warfare.
#End 🧵
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