🧵 HDB Financial Q1 FY26: The IPO-Era Reality Check

India’s most retail-heavy NBFC (HDFC Bank’s baby) just released its first results post-IPO.

The topline looks fine. But under the hood? There’s a bit of smoke.

Here’s the brutal breakdown → 👇 1. 📊 Headline Numbers: Healthy Optics, Subtle Cracks

→ Loan Book: ₹1.09L Cr (+14.3% YoY)
→ PAT: ₹568 Cr (+7% QoQ)
→ NIM: 7.7%
→ ROA: 1.94%
→ Gross Stage 3 (NPA): 2.56% (↑ QoQ)
→ Credit Cost: 2.5%
🗣️ Mgmt: “Overall performance strong. Credit trends within expected range.”
🧠 Looks stable at a glance. Let’s peel deeper.

🧵 THREAD: Trump’s $3 Trillion Tariff Tsunami Just Reshaped Global Trade

In 48 hours:
– Brazil: 50% tariff
– Canada: 35% tariff
– 7 other nations hit: 20–30%
– Copper: 50% tariff across the board

By August 1, over $3 trillion in trade could be disrupted.

Here’s what it means for the world, for India, and you👇 1️⃣ What Happened: The 48-Hour Tariff Blitz

In just two days (July 9–10, 2025):
– Brazil was slammed with 50% tariffs
– Canada blindsided with 35% across all goods
– Philippines, Iraq, Sri Lanka, Libya, Brunei, Algeria, Moldova: all hit with 20–30%
– Trump imposed a 50% tariff on all copper imports

No consultations. No G7 warning. Just raw economic force.

In 2016, Jio broke India's telecom giants with free data.

In 2025, they're back - this time with BlackRock, managing $10.5T globally.

Together, they’re gunning for India’s ₹72 lakh crore mutual fund industry.

Here’s why HDFC, ICICI, and SBI should be very worried 👇(Must Bookmark 🧵) 📉 The Mutual Fund Market Is Broken

India’s mutual fund penetration (AUM-to-GDP):
🇮🇳 19.9%
🇺🇸 ~120%
🇬🇧 ~75%

Even with 23.8 crore MF folios, most Indians still rely on FDs, gold, or real estate.

Why?
- High costs
- Poor digital infra
- Lack of trust
- Confusing advice

🚨 Nuvama lost ₹2,800 crore in one day without any wrongdoing.

No SEBI ban, fraud, or charges.

Why did its stock crash 11%?

I’ll explain, with toys, traders, and a big storm 🧵👇 🏦 Nuvama is like a giant toy shop.

It helps over 1.2 million people grow their money, ₹4.4 trillion in savings!

It’s trusted, registered, and widespread.

But one of its friends got in trouble, changing everything.

🚨 BREAKING: India Just BANNED a $2.3B US Trading Giant - Here's Why This Changes Everything 🧵

SEBI just banned Jane Street – one of Wall Street’s most powerful firms – for allegedly rigging India’s stock market.

₹4,843 crore seized.
₹36,671 crore made.

If you invest, trade, or even have a SIP, this affects YOU.

Let’s break it down 👇 1️⃣ THE SHOCKWAVE: SEBI Just Hit Wall Street Where It Hurts

SEBI banned Jane Street – a secretive US trading firm.
Reason?

They allegedly manipulated India’s stock market for 2+ years and made billions.

This has never happened before.

🚨 Before NSE’s massive IPO drops...
It’s quietly paying ₹1,388 Cr to bury a decade-old scandal.

Why?
For 5 years, a few traders gained an unfair advantage, leaving retail investors behind.

Here’s the wild story you NEED to know 👇
#NSE #StockMarket #IPO 1️⃣ The Scandal That Shook India

Imagine this:
A handful of traders are making crores, not by skill, but by cheating the system.

How?
They got market data milliseconds before you.

In trading, that’s a GOLDMINE.
#NSEScam

🧵 Apple’s secret airlift operation is just the beginning…

In the last 3 months, Apple quietly flew 1.5M iPhones out of India.

Why?
Because US tariffs on China are exploding, and India is the new kingmaker.

If India plays this right, it’s looking at a $2 TRILLION opportunity.

Let’s break it down 👇 1️⃣ 💣 Truth Bomb: Trade wars create new winners

Every crisis hides a shift.

This time, it's the US slapping 25% tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada.

A 90-day “pause” ends July 9, 2025.

And companies are scrambling.

🚨 RBI just quietly boosted India’s economy by ₹10,00,000 crore.

No big headlines. No drama.

Just one smart rule that unlocks:
➝ Massive lending
➝ Stock market gains
➝ Faster infra growth

Let’s break it down 👇 🧠 What happened?

RBI slashed “provisioning” requirements for infrastructure loans:
➝ Old draft: 5%
➝ Final rule: just 1%

One number change → affects banks, stocks, infra, jobs.
It’s bigger than it looks.

He turned $5,000 into $200,000 in 26 months.

While Buffett had patience & Lynch had flair, William O’Neil had a system that spotted Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia before the world did.

The man who cracked the stock market and the 7-letter formula behind 10x stocks 👇

🧵 (Thread) 1/ From Paperboy to Market Monster

🧠 Born 1933.
💼 Became a stockbroker in his 20s.
📈 By 30, bought a seat on the NYSE - the youngest ever to do so.

But O’Neil wasn’t chasing tips.

He was crunching millions of datapoints to answer one question:
“What do the biggest winning stocks have in common?”

🔜 The answer became CANSLIM.

📊 99% of traders ignore it.
But the top 1% track it obsessively.

Every day, crores change hands before prices react.
No chart shows it. No news covers it.

The silent signal?
→ Bulk & Block Deals

Here’s how to decode them 🧵 1. Why this matters right now

In 2025, India’s stock market saw:
✅ Promoter exits
✅ Mutual fund accumulation
✅ Smallcap stealth buying

All happened before price spikes.
How?
Via bulk and block deals, if you knew where to look.

🚨 RBI just cut repo rate by 0.50%.

If you have a ₹50L loan, you can save:
✅ ₹1,569/month
✅ ₹18,828/year
✅ ₹2.6L over loan tenure

But here’s the twist:
⏰ You’ve got just 90 days to claim this.
❌ Your bank won’t remind you.

Most people will miss it and lose lakhs.
Don’t be one of them.

This thread shows exactly how to save it 👇🧵 1️⃣ What Happened on June 6, 2025?

🔻 RBI cut the repo rate from 6.00% → 5.50%
📉 This means your loan interest must also fall IF it’s repo-linked.

💡 Example:
Ravi has a ₹50L home loan @ 8.5% for 20 yrs.
EMI = ₹43,391
After 0.50% cut → new rate 8.0%
New EMI = ₹41,822
🎯 Savings = ₹1,569/month

But this doesn’t happen automatically. Here’s what to do 👇

🚨BREAKING: RBI just SLASHED repo rate by 50 bps to 5.5%

Biggest rate cut in YEARS.
Your EMIs, stocks, and economy are about to SHIFT.

Here’s what it means for:
📈 Stock Market
🏠 Real Estate
🏦 Banks
🚗 Autos
🛒 FMCG
💻 IT & more

🧵👇 Let’s break it down: 1. What’s the Repo Rate? 🤔

It’s the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks.

🔁 Lower repo = lower cost of funds for banks

📉 Which means cheaper loans for:
- Homebuyers
- Auto buyers
- Businesses

RBI uses repo rate as a monetary lever to either cool inflation or stoke growth.

SIP, SWP, and STP

Learning Thread 🧵 Investing systematically is a prudent way to manage finances and build wealth over time.

In the realm of mutual funds, three popular systematic plans are SIP (Systematic Investment Plan), SWP (Systematic Withdrawal Plan), and STP (Systematic Transfer Plan).

Each serves distinct purposes and caters to different financial needs.

Here’s a detailed look at each plan 👇

🧵 HFCL just posted a loss. But the full story will shock you.

This Indian company is:
•Powering AI fiber infra
•Building battlefield tech with DRDO
•Launching India’s first 5G FWA device
•Serving Jio, the Army & global data centers

📉 Yet Q4 FY25 was in the red.

Let’s decode the truth behind the dip and the breakout ahead.

👇 Thread: 1. 🔴 Why did HFCL post a Q4 loss?

HFCL posted a ₹83.3 Cr loss in Q4 FY25

🔊 Mgmt:
“Revenue dropped due to fiber slump, lower EPC billing, and margin hit from new products. Q1 is bottom-recovery begins Q2.”

India just witnessed a ₹2,600 Cr accounting meltdown.

Not in a startup.
Not in a shadow NBFC.
But in a listed bank with ₹48,000 Cr in revenue.

📉 FY25 Net Profit: ₹8,977 Cr → ₹2,576 Cr
🧨 ₹1,959 Cr fake derivative income
💸 ₹423 Cr reversal in microfinance books
🚫 No dividend. ROE collapsed to 4%.

Let’s unpack one of the boldest financial deceptions in Indian banking history 🧵👇 1/ The Collapse Begins

Q4 FY25 wasn’t a bad quarter, it was a full-scale unwind:
📌₹2,329 Cr net loss
📌EPS at -₹29.89
📌ROE crashed from 15% → 4%
📌NPAs spiked to 0.95%

But the real story?
A 9-year illusion of profits finally blew up.

🧵 Japan’s PM just said:
“Our economy is worse than Greece.”

And now Japan’s 40-year bond yield hit 3.148% - the highest since 2007.

This isn’t a Japan issue.
It’s a global credit time bomb.

You’re about to see what no one else dares say: 1. 📈 Japan’s Bond Yield Just Screamed “Crisis”

On May 19, 2025 - Japan’s 40Y yield hit 3.148%
⬆️ Near all-time highs
⬆️ Up 95 bps YoY
⬆️ From 0.6% just 18 months ago

This isn’t just a market move.
It’s a monetary regime collapse.

🚨 Titan’s Concall Was a Masterclass.

India’s jewellery king dropped a strategy blueprint, not just earnings.

Margins held. Growth pivoted. Consumer decoded.

🧵 The most intellectually loaded breakdown on Titan you’ll ever read 👇 Before we dive into Titan’s masterclass concall insights...

You can join our Telegram Channel for daily market structure breakdowns, OI charts, and sectoral learning 👇
👉 telegram.me/Stockizenoffic…

🔹 No tips. No guarantees. Purely educational.
🔹 SEBI Registered RA – INH000017675
📎 stockizenresearch.com/disclaimer

Now let’s decode India’s jewellery empire 🧵👇

🚨 India’s Quietest Digital Empire is Hiding in Plain Sight

"CarTrade" just stunned markets with ₹954 Cr cash, record profits & 3 platforms with 150M+ users each.

But what the CEO revealed in the Q4FY25 Concall will blow your mind 🧵👇 1️⃣ "We’re the Google of Used Vehicles"

🗣️ CEO Vinay Sanghi:
“CarWale, BikeWale & OLX each have 150M+ unique annual users.”

🧠 That’s 450M+ user touches per year.
✅ 95% traffic is organic
✅ ₹71 Cr adj. EBITDA
✅ ₹46.1 Cr PAT (highest ever)

→ Google-level user flywheel. No burn.

🚨 Waaree Energies just dropped a ₹14,846 Cr FY25 revenue BOMBSHELL!

💥 But hold up - that’s not the real story! 😱
📈 25.6% EBITDA margin
📦 ₹47,000 Cr prepaid orders
⚙️ 15 GW capacity, 100 GW pipeline

Here’s the secret: Waaree isn’t just solar, it’s India’s stealth ENERGY MONOPOLY, a Renewable OS masquerading as a manufacturer! 🌞⚡️

This thread will BLOW YOUR MIND and reshape how you see India’s future! 🧵👇
#WaareeEnergies #SolarEmpire 1️⃣ What Happens When Margins Go Up in a Price-Falling Market?

FY25 Highlights:
🧾 ₹14,846 Cr Revenue (+27%)
💸 ₹3,123 Cr EBITDA (+73%)
📈 ₹1,928 Cr PAT (+51%)
📊 25.59% Q4 EBITDA margin (up ~900bps YoY)

🧠 Insight: While ASPs fell 10–15%, Waaree cut RM costs from 68% → 65%.
This is gross margin Jiu-Jitsu.

📞 CFO: “We lock in raw material cost at order level to defend gross margins even as ASPs soften.”

🚨BREAKING: India’s warplane factory is now a global export machine.

HAL just posted:
→ ₹30,381 Cr revenue
→ ₹1.7L Cr pipeline
→ ₹15,000 Cr infra push
→ Big export moves: Argentina, Egypt, Guyana, Philippines

This isn’t just earnings, it’s a national strategy in motion.

Let’s decode Concall Q4 FY25🧵 📆 Q4 FY24 Concall: 17 May 2024

🏭 Sector: Aerospace & Defence
🇮🇳 Theme: Atmanirbhar Bharat × Global Defence Supplier

🎙️ Key Voices:
– C.B. Ananthakrishnan (CMD & CFO)
– Jayadeva E.P. (Dir Ops)

🧵 From the Himalayas to the stock market, India’s defense play is everywhere.

• S-400s guarding borders
• S-500s in the pipeline
• Jet engine deals with the US
• HAL, BEL flying

China’s rattled. Investors are hungry.

Here’s how India’s $100B defense leap is playing out 👇 1️⃣ India’s defense isn’t just muscle - it’s mindset.

No Western playbook. No Russian anchor.

India’s 3-pillar doctrine:
→ Indigenous Permanence (94% domestic sourcing)
→ Tech Sovereignty (3,683 private space firms)
→ Multipolar Diplomacy (US + Russia + DRDO)

Non-Alignment 2.0 has a spine.