- Revolut is arguably now the biggest competitor
- Europe is the logical next step
🧠 Europe is a market where consumers don’t invest.
- Can Robinhood’s very American approach turn that into an opportunity where others have failed?
🧠 The UK and Europe are both trying to unlock their capital markets.
- The EU is larger than the USA by GDP, but its capital market is not nearly as active. 60% of US consumers own stocks, its anywhere between 30% and 1% in Europe.
🧠 Eastern Europe is a growing market, that is underinvested.
- There's a young population with more disposable cash.
- Poland and the Baltics have some of the fastest growing economies in the world if Robinhood can move the consumer investment space from 1% to 10% that’s a massive opportunity.
🧠 This is Revolut’s home turf. Revolut has done really well expanding in Eastern Europe, and in its investing products.
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Bowing to pressure, Goldman Sachs will no longer pursue checking accounts for the mass market. Bloomberg reports Goldman will also limit their consumer lending but will continue their existing card partnerships. 🧵
🤔 There goes the case study. When pointing at "who's doing something interesting in consumer, every consultant (including me) would point at Marcus.
Amazing resilience and case study in how to do "new" in big org. Reality bites. Massive org w/ shareholders and P&Ls has bitten.
🤔 It was a great strategy but expensive execution. Marcus had three legs to their strategy. 1. Becoming a universal bank direct to the consumer across all product types. 2. Partnerships like Apple Card. 3. Starting to offer APIs to get into Banking-as-a-Service.
The average P/E multiple for Fintech businesses in public markets is 3.4x. That puts the Fast .com's 166x revenue multiple from 2021 into a sharp perspective!
So is Fintech dead? I don't think so.
The whole venture and tech sector is down
Of the 124 tech IPOs in 2021, only 15 are above their trading price
Fintech deal velocity is also slowing (h/t @ftpartners)
*Some* Fintech companies burned cash rapidly to compete on who could grow fastest.
With the pandemic and unlimited marketing spend, many hired too quickly, and did so with questionable future business models.