Biggest story in stablecoins nobody noticed

Alipay, the mobile payments wallet with 1 billion users, will launch a EURO Stablecoin BREUR, to the European market

They're only the second to be listed by the European Regulator ESMA.

This is HUGE for reasons you're missing 🧵 Alipay has over 1 billion active consumers

It is a digital wallet and "superapp" for online and in-store payments

Also does financial services like investments and wealth management.

Why are they so early to Euro stables?

Stablecoins solve a bottleneck in the internet economy.

20th-century money is too slow, expensive, and infrequent for the demand of internet-scale payments.

This is a pattern that repeats in history.

🧵 1. The Industrial Revolution

- The Royal Mint couldn't create coins fast enough
- The shortage led to widespread counterfeits
- The new wage economy demanded more coins
- So factories with high quality machinery made their own

The Royal Mint accepted this before eventually USING that technology themselves 50 years later

The bank lobby is furious about stablecoin yield under the GENIUS Act. They're calling it a "loophole" that needs closing.

But here's what they're missing: We've seen this movie before. And it built an entire generation of fintech companies.

🧵 The GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders. Banks claim issuers are skirting this by paying third parties (like exchanges), who then offer rewards or yield to users.

Treasury estimates this could drain $6.6 trillion from bank deposits.

The world's first 50% stablecoin IPO just happened. Crypto exchange Bullish received $1.15bn in USDC.

This quietly changes everything about how public companies can raise capital. What actually happened:

• Bullish (NYSE: BLSH) closed their IPO on August 14th
• 50%+ of proceeds came as stablecoins ($1.15bn total)
• Settlement across 8 different stablecoin types
• Majority minted on Solana, custodied by Coinbase

Nubank's results are INSANE. Every other bank CEO must look at these and be like... HOW?

Here's the breakdown...

* 122.7 million customers (+4.1M net additions)
* $3.7 billion revenue (+40% YoY)
* $637 million net income (+42% YoY)
* $12.2 monthly revenue per active customer (+18% YoY)
* $0.80 cost to serve per customer
* 83.2% monthly activity rate That's a benchmark every other organization in finance should print out on their wall. Only webank in China (with 494m users) can beat.

The unit economics *almost* don't make sense:

- $0.80 cost to serve each customer
- $12.20 revenue per customer/month
- That's 15x return 🤯

Most banks struggle to hit 3x - That's the benefit of self-owned technology and a branchless servicing model.

Most people think stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized deposits are fighting to the death. They're not. They're building the same highway.

Here's what 99% of debate gets wrong:

These aren't competing technologies.

They're solving different problems for different people:

🧵 Think of it like this:

- Stablecoins = Highway for the unbanked (or global south x global south trade)
- Tokenized Deposits = On-ramp for Fortune 500s
- CBDCs = Settlement layer for central banks

All three go onchain.

All three win.

We just lived through most consequential 24 hours in financial services law for the past two decades.

And it will bring the biggest transformation of financial technology since the 1970s.

Here's what happened and why it matters 👇 What Happened? 🤔

1. The GENIUS Act passed with a 308-122 bi-partisan vote in the House and is heading to the Presidents desk.

2. The CLARITY Act, clarifying SEC vs CFTC oversight passed House 294-133

3. Anti-CBDC Bill, prohibiting a retail CBDC also passed the house.

While everyone is debating Stablecoins. Pay by Bank is quietly becoming a FORCE in payments.

TrueLayer just launched Pay by Bank with Stripe in Germany.

But here's the timeline that explains why this matters: 2019: "What's Pay by Bank?"
2021: "Interesting experiment in the UK"
2023: "We should probably test this"
2024: Every major PSP picks their dance partner
2025: The invasion begins

Stripe + TrueLayer aren't just expanding to Germany.

Why did Kalshi just raise $185m at a $2bn valuation more than DOUBLE Polymarket's recent reported $1bn?

- Polymarket dominated election coverage.
- Had 10X the volume.
- Every journalist quoted their odds.
- They owned the narrative.
- But they can't touch US users.

The biggest prediction market in history... banned from its biggest market.

Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and able to advertise to US customers. But what about prediction markets generally? Isn't it just gambling?

When you can't afford a house, can't trust institutions, can't build wealth through traditional means... why not bet on elections?

This is financial nihilism pricing in.

The social contract broke.

Prediction markets filled the void.

Young Americans are gambling because the "legitimate" path to wealth feels rigged anyway. Same odds, different casino.

🚨 BREAKING: Revolut — the neobank with 50M customers — is quietly building its own stablecoin.

Does everyone need their own stablecoin? Can this threaten Circle and Tether's dominance? Revolut has a distribution advantage:

- 50M active customers
- Full banking in 30+ countries (EU + UK + MX)
- Live crypto exchange already running (Revolut X)
- Crypto support in their core product

Visa wants to give AI Agents "tokens" so they can pay without you ever seeing a checkout page.

Visa's CEO told investors this is their #1 priority.

Here's how it will work 👇 Imagine telling your Agent.

"I want a signed Pedro Pascal shirt from The Last of Us" don't spend more than $100" -

Then you tap your phone.

The next thing you know, the payment is complete.

Let's unpack the flow as I understood it 👀

A founder sold her startup to JPMorgan for $175M.

The bank thought they were getting 4 million customers.

They actually got 300,000.

Now she's going to prison.

The Charlie Javice story is a masterclass in how NOT to exit your startup... Charlie Javice founded Frank, a financial aid platform for students. By 2021, she'd raised over $20M from notable investors.

She'd even been featured in Forbes 30 Under 30.

JPMorgan saw a golden opportunity: acquire Frank and sell banking products to millions of students.

Stablecoins aren't cheaper; they're better

The mistake is comparing card fees to crypto network fees.

This is Apples-to-oranges (see table).

Stablecoins are now over $200bn.

Here's how they make payments better. 🧵 Visa doesn't move money; banks do.

When you pay with a card, Visa takes 15 cents.

Yet merchants pay $3.20 on a $100 purchase.

Where does the rest go?

TL;DR on yesterday's SWIFT and VISA Crypto announcements

SWIFT announced backward compatibility with their network for banks doing things with tokens.

VISA announced a service that lets banks turn Fiat into Stablecoins or tokens

What's the difference? 👇 The two networks play different roles.

Therefore their announcements fill a different need.

SWIFT is Layer 0 for bank-to-bank payments. It is not a settlement layer; it is a messaging network.

VISA is a consumer-facing brand that unlocks in-store and commerce.

Banks eventually settle via SWIFT or their local central banks.

If there's a consistent theme in technology and Fintech, it's the low hum of fear.

You're probably reading lots of 2023 predictions, but most explainers miss these key details 👇

1. Financial services is the world's largest profit pool

The prize for disruption is massive 2. Banks are making a come back, but it won’t last forever

Banks suffered a “lost decade” after the financial crisis. Now as interest rates rise they’re returning to profitability. Are the good old days back?

Bowing to pressure, Goldman Sachs will no longer pursue checking accounts for the mass market. Bloomberg reports Goldman will also limit their consumer lending but will continue their existing card partnerships. 🧵 🤔 There goes the case study. When pointing at "who's doing something interesting in consumer, every consultant (including me) would point at Marcus.

Amazing resilience and case study in how to do "new" in big org. Reality bites. Massive org w/ shareholders and P&Ls has bitten.

The average P/E multiple for Fintech businesses in public markets is 3.4x. That puts the Fast .com's 166x revenue multiple from 2021 into a sharp perspective!

So is Fintech dead? I don't think so. The whole venture and tech sector is down

Of the 124 tech IPOs in 2021, only 15 are above their trading price

Fintech deal velocity is also slowing (h/t @ftpartners)

It feels like every brand has launched cash-grab NFT projects, and many groan when they see another announcement.

But I think this announcement from Starbucks is much better than people give it credit for.

stories.starbucks.com/press/2022/sta… Starbucks has mastered loyalty.

Starbucks has 24.2m active rewards users, who pay with the app to get 1x extra star with every purchase.

Why not build in a little game and unique experiences with artists if it deepens engagement?

Some banks are about to make a big comeback as the market turns.

But only a few some will grab a once in a generation opportunity to change the game.

🧵👇 Hiring people isn't cool, doing something with those people is cool. Banks need to

1. Attack Structural Cost
2. Actually innovate
3. Work with "Fintech the supplier"
4. Get great at M&A
5. Make patient, long term bets on things like DeFi

In another gem packed post @packyM drops this line describing decentralized exchanges

"TC/IP for liquidity" The whole thing is of course excellent

notboring.co/p/web3-use-cas…

Especially the Instagram comparisons (which as someone who was working in TradFi during social media feels all too familiar!!)

The Ultimate SWIFT and Russia Sanctions explainer

You've probably been reading lots of people explaining SWIFT, but most explainers miss some key details like 👇

1. SWIFT is not a payment system.

SWIFT is a messaging system (like email) used by 11,000 banks in 200+ countries 2. SWIFT doesn't move money; banks do. Money moves when a bank updates its accounts.

Banks go through a series of messages to say who needs to get paid and for how much. These messages happen instantly but the payments may not get applied immediately because...