1/ Time for a quick BTC thread to close out a week where we have historic macro moves helping start the next leg despite all the bearish rhetoric.
2/ Reminder that it wasn't too long before we had this
3/ but then we had this
4/ and then a few hours later we had this
5/ then the basis trade blew up and we had this in 30 yr yields for the largest weekly rise since 1987
6/ while US 10 yr rates went up, German rates were unchanged leading to largest weekly divergence in history
7/ and despite this we saw the dollar index (DXY) go down (DXY vs US-GER 10y spread)
8/ and the 2 day fall in the DXY was greater than 2.5% for the 4th time since 2010.
9/ here is bitcoin reaction from the date of the first one in 2015
10/ and the second
11/ and the third
12/ and remember the Fed hasn't helped.....yet
13/ the global fiat system is breaking into national capitalism which will lead to more debt around the globe as countries focus on their economies in this trade reshuffling. the new global system of exchange will be driven by AI, stablecoins and BTC
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1/ If you're not on X and listening to podcasts, you're behind on the AI speed.
Mainstream financial media is 6-12 months behind what's actually happening.
Case in point: @GavinSBaker warned us about the "scariest bear case" for AI infrastructure less than 2 months ago.
It's happening right now.
2/ On Patrick O'Shaughnessy's podcast, Baker laid out the threat to centralized cloud inference:
"In three years, you will be able to run a pruned down version of something like Gemini 5 at 30-60 tokens per second on your phone and then that's free."
3/ He called edge AI "by far the most plausible and scariest bear case" for hyperscaler compute demand.
His timeline? 3 years.
This week's @theallinpod showed it's not 3 years away.
It's starting now.
1/ There’s a lot of speculation about why Trump moved against Maduro.
Most macro takes default to the familiar explanation: oil.
That framing is understandable but it misses the AI geo-political lens which has been the story since rare earth became the new oil in the AI military world.
2/ Yes, the U.S. has acted for oil before.
Iraq 2003 proved that.
But Venezuelan oil in 2026 is not Iraq 2003:
– Production is a fraction of prior peaks
– Infrastructure is degraded
– No global chokepoint leverage
If this were about oil, it mot likely would’ve happened years ago.
3/ To understand Venezuela today, you have to look through a 21st-century military lens, not a 20th-century energy one.
1/ Bitcoin is knocking on the door of its 50‑day moving average (50DMA).
Price is compressing just below it, a level that often acts as a trend pivot.
A reclaim would put BTC back into short‑term bullish territory.
2/ This matters because Bitcoin has now closed below the 50DMA for 64 consecutive days.
• Streak start: 2025‑10‑28
• Latest close: 2025‑12‑30
• Length: 64 straight daily closes below the 50DMA
That’s a long time to stay on the wrong side of this trend filter.
3/ Since 2020, this has only happened four other times ⬇️
📉 Extended periods below the 50DMA (≥64 days):
• May–July 2021 → 74 days
• Nov 2021–Feb 2022 → 81 days
• Apr–July 2022 → 99 days
• Feb–Apr 2025 → 67 days
Including today, this is only the 5th occurrence in the dataset.
CoreWeave’s Warning: When AI Demand Meets Infrastructure Reality
The AI boom of 2025 reshaped markets. But the next phase won’t be about capital—it’s about concrete.
We’ve entered a supply-constrained revolution.
🧵👇
1/ Today I published a paper for 22V on CRWV and why for me this was an important inflection point in the AI trade.
2/ For three years, the trade was simple: bet on AI demand and capex.
Now, that demand is colliding with physical limits.
CoreWeave’s update showed the constraint has moved from capital to execution.
They cut 2025 capex by 40%, not for lack of demand, but because data-center builders missed deadlines.