1/ Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. Last time up here, talk centered on a strategic BTC reserve. This time, macro stress is pulling in new investors seeking an alternative to a system that’s clearly breaking down.
Thread 🧵 2/ Bessent “The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1897995482300891580

🧵 While economists debate a coin-flip recession and investors brace for a retest because “this makes no sense”… something big is happening beneath the surface.

It’s not about tariffs. It’s not about the Fed.

It’s the quiet rise of AI inference — the real story dominating the economy. 👇 2/
I just listened to a great podcast with Russell Napier making the case for why this is a once-in-a-generation macro pivot.
And I agree with almost everything he said.

But not once did they mention AI or Bitcoin — two of the most important forces shaping what comes next.

1/
Since the GFC, gold has quietly outperformed all fiat assets.
At the same time, the non-gold-backed fiat system has entered its final chapters.
But the future won’t be a return to a gold standard or a new global reserve currency. 2/
Instead, the next monetary system will evolve alongside the digital economy.
Payment rails will be built around stablecoins, with network effects reshaping how value moves globally.
Bitcoin will play a key role — not as a currency, but as a critical store of value.

1/Instead of calling this the end of US Exceptionalism, I think this should be called the end of the current global debt backed fiat system. The new system built on the digital economy is where the investments should be and not on the old soon to be replaced system. Thread time 2/As a reminder, the debt is not just a US problem but a global problem that has reached its limits as the OECD Global Debt Report highlights.

1/ Time for a quick BTC thread to close out a week where we have historic macro moves helping start the next leg despite all the bearish rhetoric. 2/ Reminder that it wasn't too long before we had this

1/ Bessent says "NORMAL DELEVERAGING IN BOND MARKET, NOTHING SYSTEMIC"
Trump says "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"

ok kids, time for a story thread down memory lane of how a debt leveraging sounds in hindisght from leaders 2/
Ben Bernanke (Fed Chair, March 2007):
“The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”

1/ As I listen to more and more podcasts try to explain the master plan behind this austerity attempt, the markets are reminding me the Mike Tyson line again with trying to deflate this debt bubble, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. 2/ It historically starts with whenever "smart" people suggest hurting Wall Street to help Main Street. It usually ends the same way—more money printing and unintended consequences.

1/ I'm hearing a lot lately on podcasts about solutions focused on reducing government spending through tariffs and austerity. Many suggest pain needs to be felt—stock market declines included—as a necessary medicine. They claim it will primarily hurt the wealthy, but this ignores the broad reality of the problem.

thread 2/ In an economy where wealth distribution is extremely unequal, and most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, these 'painful' solutions disproportionately impact median-income voters. In 2024, the median age of a homebuyer rose to 58—a stark sign of declining affordability and shrinking economic mobility.

Just read Stripe’s 2024 annual letter.

It’s a must-read for anyone in BTC and crypto. 🚀

It reveals how AI, AI agents, and stablecoins are merging into a single unstoppable force for digital finance and payments.

This is the next phase of the digital economy. 🧵⬇️ 1/ $1.4 trillion.

That’s how much businesses processed on Stripe in 2024—up 38% YoY.

Stripe is now handling 1.3% of global GDP. A staggering number that shows the exponential growth of digital payments in an AI-driven world.

1/ I think it is time for the next leg higher in Bitcoin based on how traditional markets have traded in a busy macro week. Let me explain. 2/ We ended last week with new tariff threats. Before we got the details, this happened. The CPI report showed clearly that inflation is not dead with the Core MoM higher than any month in 30 years outside of Covid.

1/ China released more data last night which show that the stimulus that began in September is working to at least put a floor in the economy. With bearish sentiment in the US around the dollar and rates moving higher, people are forgetting China's importance to the regime. 2/ In the US our economy and sentiment is driven by the SPX. In China the housing market plays that role so this trend in house prices YoY is not something to ignore given it turned in Sept at the beginning of their "line in the sand." Markets move off rate of change and this is upward.

1/ Here is a look at where things stand after six weeks of unwinds of the trump bump. The broad view suggests the next shift in sentiment is near or has started ahead of the inauguration. 2/ AAII net sentiment has fallen from near the highs of 2024 to the lowest level since 2023.

In my video outlook for this year, I highlighted the growing risk of two opposing forces influencing the markets, creating uncertainty for investors looking the Fed's next move. Today’s data and news provide a glimpse of that dynamic in action. related to the jobs market, we continue to see more of these headlines from JPM. With the rise of AI agents which will bring anxiety to workers, I think management will try to "coax" employees to quit rather than large scale firings.

Given Bitcoin is up 100+% for the 2nd year in a row and has been around 100k for a couple weeks now, it should be no surprise that everyone on X seems to be debating breakout or bubble top. Given my view is this is still early in the Bitcoin/US stock debasement story, here is my take in a thread including a signal/chart that worked the last two times and I think need to happen again before the next cycle top. 1/ First of all if we use the internet bubble as an example of a bubble to compare the Bitcoin chart, the NDX from 12/90-3/00 compounded at 40% a year and did not have a down year with 1999 being up more than 100%. The Bitcoin chart over the last three years is not a bubble.

1/ Last week I had three conversations with financial teams to talk about how Bitcoin fits in their portfolios and how to think about how to add it. I was surprised that the pushback and fears remain. After last week's election, I put out a video highlighting why the election will be the ChatGPT AI moment for Crypto. 2/ 💹 Bitcoin Leading the Charge: Bitcoin shot up 14-15% in the past week, breaking $80,000 and on track toward $100,000. This rally signals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin as a 2025 standout. Are we seeing a new “digital gold”? #Bitcoin #Crypto

As the focus shifts to the Presidential Election, I think there is an important story to be told around business confidence that could lead to an expansion in breadth in the market as the Fed and China are both easing. With a Republican Sweep growing in probability according to oddsmakers. Could we be about to....

Given the extreme fall in Hong Kong overnight and despite people on both the bearish and bullish side despite thinking they KNOW what will happen, let's take a broad look at where things stand on the charts heading into what is sure to be another volatile session. With the 9% fall last night the Hang Seng gave back 38% of the September rally.

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Inflationistas seem to be hanging on Owner’s Equivalent Rent and they want to ignore the housing market weakness as a leading indicator. [THREAD] 2/
Purchase applications collapsing