1) Had a nice convo with a recently retired big CEO of a critical manufacturing company. He did a LOT of business with Chy-na. Was there many times.
2) "Other than Shanghai and Hong Kong, this is a third world country. It is extremely poor in many places."
2) "Other than Shanghai and Hong Kong, this is a third world country. It is extremely poor in many places."
3) ME: "How can they build these big engineering marvels like bridges & dams, etc?"
4) HIM: "First, they have no property rights, so if they want to build something they clear out entire villages of 50,000 people without a thought. Second, the stuff is of very low quality."
4) HIM: "First, they have no property rights, so if they want to build something they clear out entire villages of 50,000 people without a thought. Second, the stuff is of very low quality."
5) For example, he noted, one of those giant dams failed, the ports and docks they have built as part of their "belt and road" fell apart before they were finished. "Peking is not a modern city."
6) "Their companies do not do business with the US or any country. . .
6) "Their companies do not do business with the US or any country. . .
6) contd . . . Widget Company takes orders from the Widget Ministry for units---but it can't hire people. Workers must come from the Labor Ministry. So the WM and LM work out how many people they need for the Widget Company. The Widget Company does not sell to customers . . .
6) contd . . . The Widget Company sells to the government. Their only customer, ever, is the government."
7) As for intellectual property, "They steal everything. You'll see stacks of just released movies in DVDs, obviously not from the movie companies."
7) As for intellectual property, "They steal everything. You'll see stacks of just released movies in DVDs, obviously not from the movie companies."
8) ME: "Outside perhaps of medicine, I don't see them as particularly inventive or innovative."
9) HIM: "No, because there is on incentive for anyone at lower levels to improve anything. In America you had people at Carnegie Steel in lower levels who had patents on processes . .
9) HIM: "No, because there is on incentive for anyone at lower levels to improve anything. In America you had people at Carnegie Steel in lower levels who had patents on processes . .
9) Contd . . or technology actually already working in the steel mills." ME: "Julian Kennedy who has over 150 patents in his life, had 75 actually already working in the Carnegie Mills."
10) HIM: "Exactly. But there is no incentive there for anyone to improve a product/process.
10) HIM: "Exactly. But there is no incentive there for anyone to improve a product/process.
11) Conclusion: He thought Trump could absolutely crater the ChiCom economy.
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