1/
Update by Kenneth Gregg voulanteer in #Ukraine
250412
----
Let me start with Syrskyi's claim that the Russians have started their massive offensive.
It depends on what you mean by offensive, if you mean the previous definition which is a massive fast advancing attack then no Russian offensive has probably started.
If you define it as a slow and steady 24/7 attack and in many places then YES then the Russian spring offensive has started.
Update by Kenneth Gregg voulanteer in #Ukraine
250412
----
Let me start with Syrskyi's claim that the Russians have started their massive offensive.
It depends on what you mean by offensive, if you mean the previous definition which is a massive fast advancing attack then no Russian offensive has probably started.
If you define it as a slow and steady 24/7 attack and in many places then YES then the Russian spring offensive has started.
2/
What the ryzka propaganda wants to achieve with this type of offensive is to be able to continuously report on newly occupied areas (even if it is only a small forest belt or field) and in this way influence public opinion, for example Donald Trump and his administration.
The ryzka propaganda has previously engaged in this tactic so if we are to believe everything they say they should now be in #Lviv.
Another thing that has been very problematic is the placement of the mobilized.
We have used only 30% of those who have received mobilization documents.
When you are mobilized you have to wait for the actual call-up order, until it comes you are just in the reserve.
What the ryzka propaganda wants to achieve with this type of offensive is to be able to continuously report on newly occupied areas (even if it is only a small forest belt or field) and in this way influence public opinion, for example Donald Trump and his administration.
The ryzka propaganda has previously engaged in this tactic so if we are to believe everything they say they should now be in #Lviv.
Another thing that has been very problematic is the placement of the mobilized.
We have used only 30% of those who have received mobilization documents.
When you are mobilized you have to wait for the actual call-up order, until it comes you are just in the reserve.
3/
We have had problems giving these people solid training, but now that the front units themselves have been able to sign contracts without going through the collection board, the situation has improved noticeably.
The problem with the incompetent front officers is also slowly but surely starting to improve.
They are being replaced by younger people who have already received their practical training out at the front, we are now in a situation where we have 50-50.
We have had problems giving these people solid training, but now that the front units themselves have been able to sign contracts without going through the collection board, the situation has improved noticeably.
The problem with the incompetent front officers is also slowly but surely starting to improve.
They are being replaced by younger people who have already received their practical training out at the front, we are now in a situation where we have 50-50.
4/
Let's look at artillery and fiber optic drones.
Since the Ryz have lost a lot of artillery systems, we are starting to approach equal numbers on both sides.
Now the availability of ammunition will decide, which means that Western aid will determine where the pendulum swings. - We will do our part by attacking Ryzka factories that manufacture grenades and destroying their weapons depots.
When we gain the upper hand in the ammunition race, we can really start shelling the Russian positions.
The fiber optic-guided drones have proven very useful, but no good comes without some harm.
In the places where they have been used very intensively, it has been shown that the wires hinder the advance of the infantry.
They also make it difficult for other drones because the wires are not visible in the camera. The Ryz have tried phosphorescent wires, but they have shown us the way to the drone unit.
Let's look at artillery and fiber optic drones.
Since the Ryz have lost a lot of artillery systems, we are starting to approach equal numbers on both sides.
Now the availability of ammunition will decide, which means that Western aid will determine where the pendulum swings. - We will do our part by attacking Ryzka factories that manufacture grenades and destroying their weapons depots.
When we gain the upper hand in the ammunition race, we can really start shelling the Russian positions.
The fiber optic-guided drones have proven very useful, but no good comes without some harm.
In the places where they have been used very intensively, it has been shown that the wires hinder the advance of the infantry.
They also make it difficult for other drones because the wires are not visible in the camera. The Ryz have tried phosphorescent wires, but they have shown us the way to the drone unit.
5/
A map of a ceasefire zoned Ukraine a la Keith Kellogg has emerged:
- the Russians control the east and south, the areas closest to the war zone are controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces, and the rest of Ukraine is controlled by British, French, and Ukrainian forces.
He proposes creating a buffer zone up to 30 km wide between the Russians and us. Right now I find it hard to believe that this would satisfy us, especially in Kherson.
A map of a ceasefire zoned Ukraine a la Keith Kellogg has emerged:
- the Russians control the east and south, the areas closest to the war zone are controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces, and the rest of Ukraine is controlled by British, French, and Ukrainian forces.
He proposes creating a buffer zone up to 30 km wide between the Russians and us. Right now I find it hard to believe that this would satisfy us, especially in Kherson.
6/
Let's finally look at the situation in the Kremlin and Russia.
Donald Trump's chaotic actions initially caused euphoria in the Kremlin, but have now turned into deep concern.
So far,
the Kremlin has not made any concessions to allow a ceasefire or an end to the war, but they have returned to the international political table with the help of the Trump administration.
Russia's goal is still to completely subjugate Ukraine, that goal has not been abandoned.
The White House's change of course, however, has led to discussions in the West and in Russia about ending the war.
However,
a sudden cessation of fighting would pose a huge problem for the Kremlin, since Russian ground forces alone currently number around 650,000, according to estimates by Ukrainian military intelligence.
Putin himself said last summer that there were around 700,000 Russian soldiers in the "special operation" area.
Let's finally look at the situation in the Kremlin and Russia.
Donald Trump's chaotic actions initially caused euphoria in the Kremlin, but have now turned into deep concern.
So far,
the Kremlin has not made any concessions to allow a ceasefire or an end to the war, but they have returned to the international political table with the help of the Trump administration.
Russia's goal is still to completely subjugate Ukraine, that goal has not been abandoned.
The White House's change of course, however, has led to discussions in the West and in Russia about ending the war.
However,
a sudden cessation of fighting would pose a huge problem for the Kremlin, since Russian ground forces alone currently number around 650,000, according to estimates by Ukrainian military intelligence.
Putin himself said last summer that there were around 700,000 Russian soldiers in the "special operation" area.
7/
The former Finnish ambassador to Moscow, René Nyberg, recently stated that there are a large number of war-traumatized Ryzka men on the front lines, whose only real skills are fighting and using a rifle.
The mobilization order signed by Putin in September 2022 provides for indefinite service for both mobilized and contracted soldiers.
As long as the decree is not canceled, the contract with the Ministry of Defense will continue automatically.
Due to the current state of the war, as well as the negotiations initiated by the United States, influential war bloggers are feverishly speculating about what will happen to the Russian army if/when a possible ceasefire comes into effect.
The independent Ryzka news outlet Važnije istorii reports that several Z-bloggers believe that most soldiers will desert at the first opportunity.
According to Ryzka military experts interviewed by the newspaper, the Kremlin needs at least 200,000 soldiers to secure the current front lines if an agreement on a ceasefire is reached
The former Finnish ambassador to Moscow, René Nyberg, recently stated that there are a large number of war-traumatized Ryzka men on the front lines, whose only real skills are fighting and using a rifle.
The mobilization order signed by Putin in September 2022 provides for indefinite service for both mobilized and contracted soldiers.
As long as the decree is not canceled, the contract with the Ministry of Defense will continue automatically.
Due to the current state of the war, as well as the negotiations initiated by the United States, influential war bloggers are feverishly speculating about what will happen to the Russian army if/when a possible ceasefire comes into effect.
The independent Ryzka news outlet Važnije istorii reports that several Z-bloggers believe that most soldiers will desert at the first opportunity.
According to Ryzka military experts interviewed by the newspaper, the Kremlin needs at least 200,000 soldiers to secure the current front lines if an agreement on a ceasefire is reached
8/
To prevent mass desertion, the Kremlin is forcing mobilized and conscripted soldiers to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
Refusal often leads to transfer to strike forces, where losses are notoriously high.
The tariff war that Trump started is also causing concern in the Kremlin, although Russia was spared from US import duties.
However,
Trump’s chaotic actions are creating uncertainty about the state of the global economy, and this, combined with the oil cartel OPEC’s surprise decision to increase production, has significantly lowered oil prices.
- The Russian economy is completely dependent on oil export revenues.
The Kremlin is closely monitoring the price of Russian Urals crude, which has again been close to the critically low level of $50 per barrel this week.
The Kremlin’s budget for this year has been drawn up at an average price of $69.7, which means that the current price is more than 20 percent lower than Russia’s target.
To prevent mass desertion, the Kremlin is forcing mobilized and conscripted soldiers to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
Refusal often leads to transfer to strike forces, where losses are notoriously high.
The tariff war that Trump started is also causing concern in the Kremlin, although Russia was spared from US import duties.
However,
Trump’s chaotic actions are creating uncertainty about the state of the global economy, and this, combined with the oil cartel OPEC’s surprise decision to increase production, has significantly lowered oil prices.
- The Russian economy is completely dependent on oil export revenues.
The Kremlin is closely monitoring the price of Russian Urals crude, which has again been close to the critically low level of $50 per barrel this week.
The Kremlin’s budget for this year has been drawn up at an average price of $69.7, which means that the current price is more than 20 percent lower than Russia’s target.
9/
The Russian Ministry of Finance warned in March that income and expenditure were not in balance.
- The reason is not only the fall in oil prices, but also the war in Ukraine, which is sucking up an increasing part of the Kremlin's resources.
Russia has usually made up the deficit by using funds from the so-called National Welfare Fund. Before the war of aggression, the fund's liquid assets were over 100 billion dollars.
According to the Bank of Finland, however, at the end of February only about 39 billion (3.4 trillion rubles) remained, and with oil prices remaining at current levels, this is not enough to cover even the current year's needs.
Gas trade has also slowed down significantly and every cubic meter sold entails a financial loss, which in turn has caused Gazprom to make billions in losses in USD.
Among Russian propagandists, the weak economic outlook has been completely ignored when assessing the consequences of US President Trump's trade war, which is to bury your head in the sand and believe in miracles.
The tone of the Russian administration is markedly different now, with both Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirming the effects of the market turmoil on Russia.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has also warned that the fall in oil prices is a threat to the Russian economy.
The Russian Ministry of Finance warned in March that income and expenditure were not in balance.
- The reason is not only the fall in oil prices, but also the war in Ukraine, which is sucking up an increasing part of the Kremlin's resources.
Russia has usually made up the deficit by using funds from the so-called National Welfare Fund. Before the war of aggression, the fund's liquid assets were over 100 billion dollars.
According to the Bank of Finland, however, at the end of February only about 39 billion (3.4 trillion rubles) remained, and with oil prices remaining at current levels, this is not enough to cover even the current year's needs.
Gas trade has also slowed down significantly and every cubic meter sold entails a financial loss, which in turn has caused Gazprom to make billions in losses in USD.
Among Russian propagandists, the weak economic outlook has been completely ignored when assessing the consequences of US President Trump's trade war, which is to bury your head in the sand and believe in miracles.
The tone of the Russian administration is markedly different now, with both Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirming the effects of the market turmoil on Russia.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has also warned that the fall in oil prices is a threat to the Russian economy.
10/10
The Kremlin's apparent diplomatic victory and euphoria over Trump's Ukraine policy have quickly turned into concern for the future, what the Kremlin hates more than anything else is impulsiveness.
Rumors have started to spread again about our fundraising for Vadim's unit's Vampire drones, among other things, they claim that they only cost 2000 USD.
Therefore,
I am publishing the link to sellers of this type of drone, where price and characteristics are included voron.in.ua/kvadrokopteri/…
The exchange rate between SEK and UAH is about 1:4.
Since we have now reached the goal but still have some time left, we are continuing the fundraising in order to buy some extra equipment for the drone that the unit requested, including extra batteries and extra chargers.
Our channels are:
SWISH 0768701577 Ukraine help in Smaland/Hannu Mäkinen
PayPal kg.greenlife@gmail.com
SLAVE UKRAINE
Source: facebook.com/share/16SuDaiw…
( translated from Swedish 250413 )
The Kremlin's apparent diplomatic victory and euphoria over Trump's Ukraine policy have quickly turned into concern for the future, what the Kremlin hates more than anything else is impulsiveness.
Rumors have started to spread again about our fundraising for Vadim's unit's Vampire drones, among other things, they claim that they only cost 2000 USD.
Therefore,
I am publishing the link to sellers of this type of drone, where price and characteristics are included voron.in.ua/kvadrokopteri/…
The exchange rate between SEK and UAH is about 1:4.
Since we have now reached the goal but still have some time left, we are continuing the fundraising in order to buy some extra equipment for the drone that the unit requested, including extra batteries and extra chargers.
Our channels are:
SWISH 0768701577 Ukraine help in Smaland/Hannu Mäkinen
PayPal kg.greenlife@gmail.com
SLAVE UKRAINE
Source: facebook.com/share/16SuDaiw…
( translated from Swedish 250413 )
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