Thread by @TSaukur

Sandwiched. Squeezed. Stranded.

That’s Bangladesh right now! 🇧🇩

Trump’s tariffs struck first. (Tho currently paused)
Now India’s latest move may cripple its trade lifelines.
Even China can’t offer a way out this time.
What just happened and why it matters. 🧵

🇮🇳 🇧🇩 🇨🇳 🇺🇸

Trump imposed a steep tariff hikes on a number of nations. One of the most affected is Bangladesh, a country that has the world’s fastest-growing export economy based on garments. The tariffs on Bangladeshi goods may soar to 37% impacting their exports.

Now let's come to a recent move played by India!

In a Big Diplomatic Move, New Delhi halted transshipment facilities for the neighbouring country on April 8, days after 🇧🇩 Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus advocated the extension of the Chinese economy around the strategically

important NorthEast.

Before 🇮🇳 stopped allowing 🇧🇩 goods to pass through its territory (transshipment), there was a big increase in trucks and shipments at Petrapole, a major border checkpoint. This means many more goods were being transported through this border point.

🇮🇳 first allowed transshipment of export cargo from Bangladesh to third countries using Indian Land Customs Stations and subsequently Indian ports and airports on June 29, 2020.

According to sources in the Petrapole Land Port’s customs department, in the FY 23-24, 3,373 trucks

with transshipment commodities or export cargo entered Petrapole from Bangladesh, with 4,733 consignments valued at 2,357.27 crore.

In FY 2024-2025, 4,686 trucks (a 39% increase) with transshipment commodities entered Petrapole with 7,772 consignments valued at `3,446.66 crore.

When this facility started in 2020, it saw little response till 2022. However 2023 onwards, transshipment consignments arrived in good numbers, and there was a sharp increase thereon. Primarily, garments come to 🇮🇳 as commodities and are then flown to European countries.

Bangladesh first carry the consignments to Petrapole, where they are checked by land port and customs authorities. Indian trucks then take them to Kolkata or Delhi airports.

“Every day, 150-200 trucks enter from 🇧🇩 of which around 15-20 carry transshipment commodities.

This is bad news for exporters of Bangladesh, mainly garment exporters. It was cheaper and easier to send through India. Indian truck owners that used to carry the consignments from Petrapole to Kolkata or Delhi airports will suffer losses too. So will labourers who unload and

load the consignments in Petrapole,” Sajedur Rehman, secretary of the Clearing Agents Staff Association in Benapole, Bangladesh, told The Indian Express over the phone.

The largest land port in South Asia, Petrapole is situated on the Indo-Bangladesh border, about 80 kms from

Kolkata. In 2023-2024, it recorded trade worth `30,42,092 crore and the movement of 23,48,707 people between the two countries.

In FY 23-24, the trade volume through Petrapole reached $3.7 Billion. Petrapole handles about 70% of the total land-based trade between 🇮🇳 and 🇧🇩.

MEA states this decision was taken as it was creating "significant congestion" on Indian airports and ports.

But noteworthy, this decision reportedly has been taken soon after Yunus 2 moves- his visit to China and calling India's NorthEast as 'deprived of access to the sea'. He

had also described 🇧🇩 as 'The only protector of the sea on the region'. He also said that China has an opportunity to increase its economic influence in their region.

Coincidence? 🙂🤫

The move played by India may make it difficult for China to help Bangladesh since-

1️⃣ 88% of Bangladesh’s exports to Bhutan and Nepal go via India’s land borders.

2️⃣ Bangladesh’s seaports (like Chittagong and Mongla) are not viable for exports to landlocked neighbors.

3️⃣ Transit via China (through Myanmar or Tibet) is logistically and politically complex and

far more expensive. India’s land transshipment reduced export transit time to third countries (via Delhi or Kolkata ports) by at least 5–7 days.

4️⃣ Shipping through China would Require transit via Myanmar (politically unstable and poor infra) or sea routes via South China Sea,

which adds over 2,500 kms of travel. Be 35% more expensive in fuel and freight charges. China cannot offer an alternative that is as cost-effective or time-efficient.

5️⃣ China lacks Integrated customs connectivity with Bangladesh, Infrastructure on the China–Myanmar–Bangladesh

route.

6️⃣ China’s trade corridors are export-driven, not import-receiving or transit-focused.

7️⃣ Over 80% of Bangladesh's exports are readymade garments. India had provided them with all Transhipment facilities & despite red sea crisis this was a breather. But, 🇨🇳's air cargo

are- Farther, Overloaded with domestic and US-China shipments, Unlikely to prioritize Bangladesh’s needs.

8️⃣ Bangladesh’s regional trade with Nepal and Bhutan is facilitated through Indian corridors. But, China–Nepal and China–Bhutan connectivity is virtually nonexistent due to

tough Himalayan terrain and lack of diplomatic ties with Bhutan.

In conclusion- 🇨🇳 may offer investments, loans and infrastructure, but it cannot replicate the strategic, geographic and economic proximity that India offers to Bangladesh — especially for export transshipment.

Bangladesh will eventually come to India begging for help or in diplomatic language would say, Given the mounting pressures, Bangladesh may eventually have no choice but to turn back to India, seeking for help.

Sources- Indian Express, The Hindu, Interview quotes.