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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Apr 14 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
The problem for this USN-Taiwan "hellscape strategy" is it's obsolete given that the Chinese have access to Russia's newest generation of FPV interceptor drones to counter it, via using China's "5 times bigger than the rest of the world combined" drone industry & sea militia.

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US Flag ranks and their senior staffs' refuse to acknowledge the disintermediation of drones mil-tech.

All you need is a game controller/radio or a smartphone controller & a waiter tray stand.

Then you are launching a FPV drone with 70% the lethality of a Javelin ATGM
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The Drone paradigm shift for Flag rank ground officers is like Horse Cavalry from 1913 to the WW1 1918 battlefield - cold.

For Flag Rank naval officers, it is like going from the 1922 battleship line to 1950's jet carrier battle group.

USN senior leaders have more problems.
3/
For reasons best known to maritime experts like @mercoglianos & @johnkonrad, the US Navy's midwit flag ranks & senior staff always ignores unwanted facts on the threat of Chinese maritime militia as launch platforms for drones - a group think classic!

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The threat of this Russian tech on PLAN militia vessels be specific, now being used to knock down Ukrainian ISR drones in mass numbers.⬇️

This interceptor drone is also big enough to carry a warhead which can take out a Sea Baby class boat-drone.

5/5 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 15
Lots of US military officers like to believe Ukraine is identical in most ways to Saddam's Iraq & some are foolish enough to say so publicly.

It'd just not true in terms of Ukrainian IADS leadership, equipment, organization, training and doctrine.

1/
The #2 of PSU in Feb 2022 had been imbedded in Serbian air defense in 1999 during Operation Allied Force.

Where Col Zoltan Dani SA-3 Goa unit not only defeated USAF SEAD doctrine from 24 Mar to 10 June 1999 with good training & tactics.

Zoltan also bagged an F-117.

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Ukraine spent 23 years duplicating Zoltani's emissions control and mobility doctrine for it's IADS.

Additionally in 2014-2015, the PSU IADS operated under the Russian long range MLRS/TBM park directed by UAV's that were cued by EW-Sigint for a year.

Minimally the Ukrainians
3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 13
One of the 'benefits' of being a 33 year 3 month vet of the US military procurement enterprise is you are around when the bodies are buried, directly or through people you know.

Such was the case with US Army anti-drone procurement.

Portrait of US Army procurement failure🧵
1/
This is an email correspondent of mine talking about US Army anti-drone kit testing, prior to 2010, about a competition between two anti-drone contractors --

"The toughest part of detecting drones is figuring out if they're drones or birds.
2/
That was actually the big 'step' they managed.

But, no, the directed pulse did not interfere with their radar. And the test they did they took down seven drones in less than seven seconds at range.
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Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 13
This is a failure of US Army leadership of the same class as the withdrawal from Kabul.

And it's not two year failure. It is an eight year failure. The information was available.

If money is interest, US Army Flag ranks were not interested.

1/
ISIS was using small drones on the 82nd Airborne in Mosul Iraq in 2017.

Pablo Chovil wrote an article for War on the Rocks about his combat experience under ISIS small drone attacks.

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About the time Pablo Chovil's article, I was briefing DCMA officials about how a sub-national militant organization printed a 13 drone swarm for less than the cost of a single Hellfire missile and disabled seven jet strike fighters and a helicopter gunship of the VKS.
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 12
Gosh, the level of prevarication regarding the Constellation frigate that is broadcast via NavSea and its supporters rivals the F-35.

For instance, let's examine the claim that Aegis BL 10 software, like on Burke class DDG, means FFG-62 has 2025 Aegis capability.

Just...No.
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A Flight III Burke has the SPY-6(V)1 radar with four active electronically steered antennas (AESA) with 37 RMA radiating elements per face, or 147 RMA elements covering 360 degrees of azimuth.

It has over 6-times the radiated power of the previous generation Aegis radar.

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The FFG-62 Constellation has three EASR SPY-6(V)2 radars originally designed for amphibious assault ships and Nimitz-class carriers.

Per the Raytheon SPY-6 Radar website...

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 10
Since the Russian NWF has run out of stored Western hard currency.

This means that any hard currency Russia uses for its war effort, such as on Chinese high tech electronics for missiles, has to come from their sales of oil and natural gas.

This has deadly implications.
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These implications are issues about sharing with the gangster oligarchs forming Putin's regime, as Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary revolt underlined.

Russia's gangster oligarchs use violence to settle..."sharing disputes."

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The Russo-Ukrainian War is now very bad for the gangster oligarchs businesses as it involved sharing oil income where a Russian State Budget was planned for the _PROFITS_ from $70 a barrel oil with costs at $35-$40 a barrel.

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Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 9
Drones are truly the "King of Battle" in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The reality of drones as bona fide persistent overhead PGMs has not sunken in yet for Senior Western military ground force leaders.

1/
In the skies over Afghanistan, air power migrated to persistent killbox interdiction model with B-1 and B-52 as orbiting platforms to get engagement cycle times under 5 minutes for laser & GPS guided bombs.

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Drones in Ukraine are producing similar persistent killbox interdiction effects, but are a tier down the firepower food chain, three tiers down in cost and five in terms of retail granularity, AKA hunting individual soldiers as targets.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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