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Charles Lister Profile picture
@Charles_Lister
Apr 15 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.

The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵: Image
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.

For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/20/syr…
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy). Image
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR Over the past week, the #SDF has vacated #Aleppo city & the Tishreen Dam in E. #Aleppo -- ceding control to #Syria gov't authority. Further phases will see departures from Deir Hafer, Markada & the Qaraqozak Bridge.

All facilitated/pushed by the US. Image
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR On the counterterrorism front, #ISIS has taken a big hit from #Assad's fall -- with attacks down by 80%.

BUT, #ISIS is now recovering in #SDF areas -- with 42/43 attacks in 2025 in #Syria's northeast.

mei.edu/publications/i…
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR Meanwhile, the US military & intel community has established a fruitful relationship with #Damascus -- with shared intel taking out multiple senior #ISIS leaders & foiling 9 major urban plots.

A US partner is now within #Syria's Defense Ministry.
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR In the past 3 weeks, local sources claim large US military logistics convoys have moved some equipment *out* of bases in Deir ez Zour towards #Iraq -- indicating a potential preliminary move to draw resources away from areas that could soon turn to #Damascus.
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR With a US disengagement from #Syria on the cards, the US has also supported the establishment of a new regional security alliance -- comprising #Syria, #Iraq, #Turkey, #Jordan & #Lebanon.

That'll be crucial to longer-term #ISIS-linked challenges.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
Apr 1
For years, #Syria's crisis was a complex geopolitical battleground, involving #Russia, #Iran, #USA, #Turkey, #Israel & more.

With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell 4 months ago, #Israel has launched ~750 airstrikes & 100+ ground incursions into #Syria, seeking to cripple #Syria militarily -- while demanding a complete demilitarization of the south.

See my latest on this: foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/27/isr…
With the #HTS-led military victory in #Syria, #Turkey -- in theory -- has the most to gain, and to a large extent, it's moved methodically to establish its influence.

But for now, the transitional gov't in #Damascus wants to balance its regional relations.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 9
The information space around #Syria has collapsed into a toxic pot of vitriol, wild misinformation and... some facts.

Large numbers of people are tragically dead, but the circumstances & context are far more complex than is being widely conveyed. A 🧵:
In the lead-up to Thursday night, pro-#Assad gunmen had launched 46 attacks on interim gov't forces in 6/14 of #Syria's governorates -- but what happened Thursday night was a whole other level.

3 days later, more than 400 gov't forces are confirmed as dead.
Almost all of those 400 gov't forces were locally-deployed -- many killed by summary execution, burned to death & buried alive.

In the 1st night of fighting, pro-#Assad gunmen also launched attacks on rival villages -- some Sunni, others Alawite.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 8
Suffice to say, the chance of #Syria being granted any sanctions relief by the #Trump admin is now effectively zero.

#Assad loyalists knew exactly what they wanted -- an extension of the long-standing "#Assad or we burn the country" motto.
#Assad fell in an #HTS-led military campaign that demonstrated extraordinary & unprecedented self-restraint -- and in the aftermath, calls for 'reconciliation' & recovery kept a lid on a long-standing boiling pot of anger & grudges.
After a decade+ of pro-#Assad sectarian massacres, 82,000 barrel bombs, starvation sieges, 340+ chemical weapons attacks, industrialized torture & 130k disappeared -- the simmering fury & thirst for revenge was restrained only by the prospect of a new start.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 5
A 🧵-- in the last 10 days, #Israel has:

- Launched ground incursions into x18 localities in SW #Syria, as deep as 12km;
- Conducted x3 airstrikes;
- Threatened a military intervention toward #Damascus;
- Demanded all of south #Syria be demilitarized.
#Israel says it distrusts #Syria's interim gov't & has sought to instrumentalize minorities to justify its interventions -- particularly the #Druze.

Yet the most powerful #Druze actors have publicly rejected #Israel's "interference" & "stoking division."
24hrs before #Israel began publicly linking the #Druze to its actions in #Syria, the "#Suwayda Military Council" began an online PR campaign -- which many took to be too much of a coincidence.

Their flag was also similar in style to the #SDF in NE #Syria. Image
Read 11 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 1
NEW -- #Israel is threatening military intervention in #Syria tonight amid rising tensions between interim gov't forces & #Druze militiamen in #Damascus' suburb of #Jaramana.

What's going on? A brief 🧵:
Last night, #Druze militiamen in #Jaramana outside #Damascus attacked a handful of interim gov't forces -- killing one, injuring another & temporarily taking him hostage.

An hour later, the militiamen attacked & ransacked a state police station nearby.
#Druze notables in #Jaramana intervened last night, securing the hostage release & promising the gov't General Security Service to handover the men responsible for the x2 attacks.

That didn't happen & tensions are rising tonight, amid occasional gunfire.
Read 7 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 15
NEW - #Syria’s interim gov’t GSS has captured senior #ISIS commander Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi in a targeted raid.

His capture is linked to US intel sharing with #Damascus. Abu al-Harith has been behind a string of high-profile #ISIS plots in #Syria. A 🧵:
When in #Damascus, I was told of 8 #ISIS plots that had been foiled by #Syria’s Interior Ministry GSS force since Jan 1, 2025 — all tied directly or indirectly to U.S. intel tip-offs.

There’s an ongoing [US-#HTS] exchange on #ISIS.
Abu al-Harith was the planner & facilitator of the #ISIS plot to massacre Shia Muslims in #Damascus’ Sayyida Zeinab foiled in January by #Syria’s GSS, per a US intel tip-off.

He also coordinated the April ‘24 assassination of Abu Mariya al-Qahtani.
Read 6 tweets

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