Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 15 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Lots of US military officers like to believe Ukraine is identical in most ways to Saddam's Iraq & some are foolish enough to say so publicly.

It'd just not true in terms of Ukrainian IADS leadership, equipment, organization, training and doctrine.

1/
The #2 of PSU in Feb 2022 had been imbedded in Serbian air defense in 1999 during Operation Allied Force.

Where Col Zoltan Dani SA-3 Goa unit not only defeated USAF SEAD doctrine from 24 Mar to 10 June 1999 with good training & tactics.

Zoltan also bagged an F-117.

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Ukraine spent 23 years duplicating Zoltani's emissions control and mobility doctrine for it's IADS.

Additionally in 2014-2015, the PSU IADS operated under the Russian long range MLRS/TBM park directed by UAV's that were cued by EW-Sigint for a year.

Minimally the Ukrainians
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...in February 2022 were are as good as the Serbs were in 1999 at foxing high altitude PGM attacks with deception and EW/visual decoys.

Then there is the issue of equipment.🙄

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Equipment wise, S-300P, S-300PS & S-300PT (SA-10A Grumble A & B) were not in Iraq's 1991 or 2003 inventories.

Nor were S-300V1 SA-12 GLADIATOR, the SA-11 GADFLY, and every other bit of late Soviet era kit.

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Finding out about the PDU's GBAD equipment set isn't something that is particularly hard to do, as the first Google search return I got for "Ukrainian national ground based air defense" was this link:

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geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
Information on Ex-Soviet air defense organizations reactions to Operation Allied Force are very easy to find.

The concentration of PSU ADA upgrades on "shoot and scoot" SAM's is one of major lessons learned from Operation Allied Force.

See:
rand.org/pubs/monograph…

press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol…

web.archive.org/web/2009031911…

press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol…

6/
The Air Power Australia website had, IMO, the best summary of Ex-Soviet air defense reaction to the NATO air campaign against the Serbs, which I've clipped from below:

Air Power Australia Analysis 2009-04
14th June,  2009

A Paper by Martin Andrew, BA(hons), MA, PhD, RAAF(Retd)
 Text © 2009 Martin Andrew

The Russian military certainly took notice of Operation Allied Force and this is reflected in fundamental doctrinal and technological changes in their approach to operating and designing air defence systems.

 There is much new equipment, primarily of Russian and Chinese origin, but also from Belarus and the Ukraine, now available on the open market as building blocks, for any country with enough money and the motivation, to create a highly survivable Integrated Air Defence System[27].

 This equipment includes both passive and active, and soft and hard kill measures as part of the air defence network, including transportable GPS/GLONASS jammers, decoy radar emitters, active defensive countermeasures for radars, ISR radar and airborne communications jammers, and point defence missile systems designed to intercept anti-radiation missiles such as the HARM and ALARM, and Precision Guided Munitions such as the JDAM and JASSM.

 However, the biggest lesson learnt by Russian strategists was the need to be able to ‘shoot and scoot’ like self-propelled artillery.
Stealth, reduced sensor-to-shooter times and GPS guided munitions were already making the older fixed air defence systems obsolete prior to Allied Force and the Russians realised many of their systems were vulnerable.

Operation Allied Force showed mobility was the key element to survivability, as the fourth part of the paper shows.

Mobility - The Most Important Lesson of Operation Allied Force

Following OAF, Russian industry launched a campaign to provide high mobility capabilities to all new build, and many legacy SAM systems
and radars.

< / snip >

7/
The PSU's initial Feb. 2022 IADS was no longer Soviet as they had tweaked almost everything and had their own C3I and radars.

US military air services would have had a hell of a bad time against the 2022 PSU's IADS,

8/
...even using the USAF's and USN's best SEAD assets.

Ukraine's IADS is mobile, dense, redundant, resilient, gun dense and very well trained.

It is and remains - with Ukrainian innovation & Western air defense aid like Patriot, NASAM & SAMP/T - the IADS from hell.

9/9 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 14
The problem for this USN-Taiwan "hellscape strategy" is it's obsolete given that the Chinese have access to Russia's newest generation of FPV interceptor drones to counter it, via using China's "5 times bigger than the rest of the world combined" drone industry & sea militia.

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US Flag ranks and their senior staffs' refuse to acknowledge the disintermediation of drones mil-tech.

All you need is a game controller/radio or a smartphone controller & a waiter tray stand.

Then you are launching a FPV drone with 70% the lethality of a Javelin ATGM
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The Drone paradigm shift for Flag rank ground officers is like Horse Cavalry from 1913 to the WW1 1918 battlefield - cold.

For Flag Rank naval officers, it is like going from the 1922 battleship line to 1950's jet carrier battle group.

USN senior leaders have more problems.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 13
One of the 'benefits' of being a 33 year 3 month vet of the US military procurement enterprise is you are around when the bodies are buried, directly or through people you know.

Such was the case with US Army anti-drone procurement.

Portrait of US Army procurement failure🧵
1/
This is an email correspondent of mine talking about US Army anti-drone kit testing, prior to 2010, about a competition between two anti-drone contractors --

"The toughest part of detecting drones is figuring out if they're drones or birds.
2/
That was actually the big 'step' they managed.

But, no, the directed pulse did not interfere with their radar. And the test they did they took down seven drones in less than seven seconds at range.
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Read 18 tweets
Apr 13
This is a failure of US Army leadership of the same class as the withdrawal from Kabul.

And it's not two year failure. It is an eight year failure. The information was available.

If money is interest, US Army Flag ranks were not interested.

1/
ISIS was using small drones on the 82nd Airborne in Mosul Iraq in 2017.

Pablo Chovil wrote an article for War on the Rocks about his combat experience under ISIS small drone attacks.

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About the time Pablo Chovil's article, I was briefing DCMA officials about how a sub-national militant organization printed a 13 drone swarm for less than the cost of a single Hellfire missile and disabled seven jet strike fighters and a helicopter gunship of the VKS.
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Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
Gosh, the level of prevarication regarding the Constellation frigate that is broadcast via NavSea and its supporters rivals the F-35.

For instance, let's examine the claim that Aegis BL 10 software, like on Burke class DDG, means FFG-62 has 2025 Aegis capability.

Just...No.
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A Flight III Burke has the SPY-6(V)1 radar with four active electronically steered antennas (AESA) with 37 RMA radiating elements per face, or 147 RMA elements covering 360 degrees of azimuth.

It has over 6-times the radiated power of the previous generation Aegis radar.

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The FFG-62 Constellation has three EASR SPY-6(V)2 radars originally designed for amphibious assault ships and Nimitz-class carriers.

Per the Raytheon SPY-6 Radar website...

3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 10
Since the Russian NWF has run out of stored Western hard currency.

This means that any hard currency Russia uses for its war effort, such as on Chinese high tech electronics for missiles, has to come from their sales of oil and natural gas.

This has deadly implications.
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These implications are issues about sharing with the gangster oligarchs forming Putin's regime, as Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary revolt underlined.

Russia's gangster oligarchs use violence to settle..."sharing disputes."

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The Russo-Ukrainian War is now very bad for the gangster oligarchs businesses as it involved sharing oil income where a Russian State Budget was planned for the _PROFITS_ from $70 a barrel oil with costs at $35-$40 a barrel.

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Read 5 tweets
Apr 9
Drones are truly the "King of Battle" in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The reality of drones as bona fide persistent overhead PGMs has not sunken in yet for Senior Western military ground force leaders.

1/
In the skies over Afghanistan, air power migrated to persistent killbox interdiction model with B-1 and B-52 as orbiting platforms to get engagement cycle times under 5 minutes for laser & GPS guided bombs.

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Drones in Ukraine are producing similar persistent killbox interdiction effects, but are a tier down the firepower food chain, three tiers down in cost and five in terms of retail granularity, AKA hunting individual soldiers as targets.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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