Adam Carlson Profile picture
Apr 16 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. Image
We really didn’t deserve Lina Image
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In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake. Image
And here is the crux of it.

The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

Oct 24
Muslims make up ~9-12% of NYC

They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary

A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).

I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29
Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:

1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct
2) Mamdani pressed on specifically how he would work with the state legislature & Hochul to get funding for his top priorities

3) A real debate about education policy (mayoral control, etc.)

4) The candidates answer specifically what they’d do differently than Adams on housing
5) The candidates put some names forward of people they’d consider for deputy mayor (the people that actually run the day to day of the city)

6) Cuomo pressed on his legal work defending Netanyahu against the ICC
Read 7 tweets
Aug 10
*clears throat* allow me 🧵

1) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Ds (IDC) & Rs in state Sen, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who were sexually abused as kids Image
2) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

3) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
4) To balance the budget, he refused to increase taxes on the mega-rich, instead cutting funding to public schools (especially in low income areas in NYC) — and he called for cuts to Medicaid as well

5) He cut funding for CUNY (and wanted to cut it even more before he resigned)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 10
Per Yahoo/YouGov poll, a huge share of Harris voters & indies have a negative view of Dems but will vote for them in 2026:

Overall:
🔴View of Ds: -20
🔵Generic Ballot: D+7

Harris Voters:
🟢View of Ds: +41
🔵Generic Ballot: D+86

Indies:
🔴View of Ds: -39
🔵Generic Ballot: D+20 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
🚨 🚨 A new NYC mayor general election poll from @ZenithPolls (me) & Public Progress (@amitsinghbagga) — the most comprehensive poll of the race — finds Mamdani with a commanding 28-point lead in a five-way race, and getting >50% head-to-head vs Cuomo

Let’s dive in, shall we? 🧵 Image
Here’s the link to the topline and crosstabs (among registered voters and likely voters): docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Here’s the link to the full report: docs.google.com/presentation/d…

Before we get into the results, I want to start with what sets this poll apart from others + methodology Image
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And now the moment you’ve all been waiting for.

Among likely voters:

5-way vote: Mamdani leads by 28 pts

Mamdani leads by 39 pts if only Cuomo drops out

Mamdani leads by 26 pts if only Adams drops out

Mamdani leads by 27 pts H2H vs Adams

Mamdani leads by 12 pts H2H vs Cuomo Image
Read 24 tweets
Jul 15
Ah yes HarrisX, the same pollster that had Cuomo up 52-28 in the final round over Mamdani the day before the Democratic primary.

Only a 36-point miss, so close! Image
Just gonna leave this right here:

semafor.com/article/12/19/…
Read 4 tweets

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