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Adam Carlson Profile picture
@admcrlsn
Apr 16, 2025 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. Image
We really didn’t deserve Lina Image
Image
In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake. Image
And here is the crux of it.

The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond. Image
wsj.com/us-news/law/ma…

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More from @admcrlsn

Adam Carlson Profile picture
Mar 15
There’s been a dizzying amount of interest group super PAC spending & endorsements in this Tuesday’s 5 competitive Illinois congressional primaries — it’s been hard to keep track of

So here’s a cheat sheet for which notable groups & individuals are supporting (or opposing) whom: Image
Groups and individuals included in the chart:

— AIPAC shadow groups (United Democracy Project, Elect Chicago Women, Chicago Progressive Partnership, Affordable Chicago Now!)

— Pro-crypto super PACs (Fairshake/Protect Progress)

— Pro-AI super PACs (Leading the Future/Think Big)

— Congressional Progressive Caucus

— Justice Democrats

— Bernie Sanders

— Elizabeth Warren

— Congressional Black Caucus
For the people that (understandably) don’t want to zoom in, let’s break this out by category.

First, the candidates that AIPAC is spending for and against: Image
Read 6 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Feb 1
Demorat Taylor Rehmet just flipped a Trump +17 Texas Senate seat (Ft. Worth/Arlington area).

The recent high water mark for Dems in the district was 43.6% (Beto 2018).

Rehmet’s likely to exceed 55%.

The heavily Latino parts of the district shifted sharply to the left from 2024 Image
This is despite being outspent by nearly $2.2M by the Republican candidate.
Simply astounding.

It’s a special election so caveats obviously apply — and Texas has been such a tease for Democrats for so long that I dare not venture to hope — but 2026 Blexas is on the table if Latinos shift anywhere near this much.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Dec 21, 2025
🔴 75% grade economy as a C, D, or F

🔴 73% say Trump admin isn’t focusing enough on lowering price of goods & services

🔴 68% say his new tariffs increased prices they paid in 2025

🔴 66% disapprove of his handling of inflation

🔴 65% say his policies most favor the wealthy
🔴 63% disapprove of his handling of the economy

🔴 61% say he’s making things sound better than they really are on prices & inflation

🔴 61% say his policies are making health insurance costs go up

🔴 51% say his policies have decreased peace & stability in the world
🔴 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off & 45% expect them to make them worse off in 2026

🔴 50% say Trump’s policies are causing job losses

🔴 49% say Trump doesn’t care at all about the needs & problems of people like them (plus 13% that say “not much”)
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Nov 6, 2025
Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race.

Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom).

Let’s nerd out.

🧵 Image
BIG PICTURE:

Mamdani currently leads Cuomo 50.4% to 41.6%, with 93% of precincts reporting.

That margin may shift slightly with late arriving mail ballots & affidavit ballots.

Sliwa’s support collapsed in the home stretch, giving Cuomo a better than expected performance. Image
BOROUGH:

Unsurprisingly, Brooklyn was Mamdani’s strongest borough.

What was surprising was that the Bronx — Mamdani’s worst borough in the primary — was his second best borough in the GE. More on that later.

Cuomo handily won Staten Island (due to said Sliwa collapse). Image
Read 18 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Oct 24, 2025
Muslims make up ~9-12% of NYC

They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary

A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)
My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).

I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.
@amitsinghbagga and I spent extra time & money targeting sample in Muslim-heavy zipcodes in our July poll of the mayoral race, and we still struggled to reach even the bare minimum of a readable sample size (n=50) for a crosstab subgroup.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Sep 29, 2025
Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:

1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct
2) Mamdani pressed on specifically how he would work with the state legislature & Hochul to get funding for his top priorities

3) A real debate about education policy (mayoral control, etc.)

4) The candidates answer specifically what they’d do differently than Adams on housing
5) The candidates put some names forward of people they’d consider for deputy mayor (the people that actually run the day to day of the city)

6) Cuomo pressed on his legal work defending Netanyahu against the ICC
Read 7 tweets

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