Adam Carlson Profile picture
Apr 16 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. Image
We really didn’t deserve Lina Image
Image
In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake. Image
And here is the crux of it.

The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond. Image

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More from @admcrlsn

Dec 17, 2024
Ladies and gentlemen, your initial 2026 House battleground districts Image
Tier two races (could become competitive under the right circumstances) Image
Districts highlighted in light blue = won by Harris and House Republican candidate

Districts highlighted in light red = won by Trump and House Democratic candidate
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2024
I guess we shouldn’t have passed the Affordable Care Act then, since a majority opposed it at the time.

i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/image… x.com/jonfavs/status…Image
Lest we forget that the ensuing electoral shellacking Democrats took in 2010 led to President Romney two years later.
In 2004 Democrats should also definitely have supported an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman since a majority supported it.

"There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."

pewresearch.org/politics/2004/…Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9, 2024
Based on race calls from AP & DDHQ (plus a candidate concession), here’s where the House stands:

🔴 Republican: 216 (+2 tilting R)
🔵 Democrats: 209 (+4 tilting D)

Ds need an inside straight

Let’s go district by district for the 10 races that are still too close to call:

🧵 Image
#AKAL

No update, with Begich (R) leading Peltola (D) by just over 10K votes (or 4.1 pts) with 76% reporting.

A lot of the remaining vote appears to be from rural areas, which should help Peltola given its high Alaska Native population.

Probably Tilt R but a lot left to count
#AZ06

Ciscomani (R) regained the lead over Engel (D) after a drop in red Pinal County.

He’s up 1,795 votes (or 0.5 pts) with 76% reporting.

Engel needs extra favorable drops in blue Pima County to have a shot.

Tilt R
Read 11 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
When you see results starting to come in tomorrow night (& beyond) context is everything

Sometimes mail and/or early ballots are counted first (more D), then Election Day ballots are counted (more R) — causing a “blue mirage”

Sometimes there’s a red mirage

Here’s a guide:

🧵
Sources:

NBC News
nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-k…

Bookmark both of these (FiveThirtyEight’s breaks down all 50 states, which will be helpful for downballot races)
Also critical to note that the partisan breakouts by voting method will likely look a little to a lot different than 2020.

We can largely expect in-person early votes to be more R than in 2020, and Election Day votes to be more D than in 2020. TBD on mail.

Proceed with caution.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31, 2024
We had a flurry of new polls in PA today that net out to an effective tie.

Those who know me well know I’m not much of an optimist.

But gather ‘round the campfire. Let me explain why I’m bullish on Harris in PA — and it has nothing to do with polls or early/mail voting.

🧵
Let’s start with what happened in 2020.

In its highest turnout election since 1992 (76.5%) — due largely to COVID/mail voting — Biden beat Trump by 1.2 points (50.0 - 48.8), or 80,555 votes.

He racked up huge margins in Philly and its suburbs & Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh). Image
From 2016 to 2020, Philly actually shifted right by 4 pts.

This was due mostly to Latino-heavy — predominantly Puerto Rican — neighborhoods (mostly in North Philly) shifting right, costing him ~10K votes

This was a trend that we saw in nearly every major city across the country Image
Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 25, 2024
Ok let’s dig in, shall we?

The final NYT/Siena National poll (10/20-23, n=2,516 likely voters) shows:

Head-to-head — tied (unrounded)
🔵 Harris 48%
🔴 Trump 48%

Full field — tied (unrounded)

🔴 Trump 47%
🔵 Harris 46%
🟢 Stein 2%
🟣 Others: 2%

What should we make of it?

🧵
The first reaction I’m seeing: “not great for Harris!”

I get that. And to some extent I agree with it.

Biden won by 4.5 pts in 2020 & won the Electoral College by the skin of his teeth (tipping point state, WI, was D+0.6).

Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the EC.
There’s been a pretty consistent indication in polling that R bias in the Electoral College bias will be less than it was in 2020, but no one truly knows by how much.

Most smart people I follow expect it to be a ~2 pt delta between the national PV and the tipping point state.
Read 21 tweets

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