Thread by @maolesen

1-10 LP.8.1

Back when we had good case data early in the pandemic, I could predict the day cases would climb about 10 days out with nearly 99% accuracy. Unfortunately, that data supply and resolution is long gone.

2-

Now the earliest warning I can give is based on my observations of surges occurring when a variant becomes about 50% of submitted samples.

icemsg.org/2025/01/26/var…

3- The UK is slightly ahead of the US with about 60% of samples belonging to LP.8.1 and LP.8.1.1

gov.uk/government/sta…

4- The positivity rate is climbing in the UK. (ibid)

5- They also have already had to put someone on ECMO for it. That's a bad sign this early on. (ibid)

6- This variant has 9 mutations on the spike protein.

thelancet.com/journals/lanin…

7- However, it's very difficult this early on to understand how this will impact the population based on prior infection/immunization, but it is expected to give it more infectivity.

contagionlive.com/view/global-sp…

8- In the US, we have likely crossed into that >50% of samples threshold.

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

9- You can also see that positivity in the US is just starting to climb.

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

10-10 If you aren't using respiratory protection, now is a good time to start. Between the spike protein mutations and the lack of vaccine uptake I am expecting this to be an interesting surge. I can't stop it, but maybe I can convince you to take precautions.

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