After having appeared intimidating to the world, the Trump economic policy looks increasingly intimidating to the US (America First!?).
In January, the GDP expectation was a growth of 2.5-3%.
No Trump has slashed it to 0 or worse. /1
In January, the GDP expectation was a growth of 2.5-3%.
No Trump has slashed it to 0 or worse. /1
Trump's economic policy has many peculiar features:
1. It is based entirely on lies: The whole world has "ripped off" the US; No, the US has benefited from financing from the whole world. It had better say "thank you!"
1. It is based entirely on lies: The whole world has "ripped off" the US; No, the US has benefited from financing from the whole world. It had better say "thank you!"
2. Trump insists that tariffs are paid by foreigners, while they are taxes to be paid by Americans - probably a tax increase of 2% of GDP, dictated by one man: Trump.
3. Trump is stuck in the economics of William McKinley of the 1890s. Tariffs that hit the poor, not income taxes.
3. Trump is stuck in the economics of William McKinley of the 1890s. Tariffs that hit the poor, not income taxes.
Trump's ultimate failure is that he seems unaware that the US is now the big borrower of the world:
Foreign investments in US securities are a staggering $32 trillion, while US GDP is $28 trillion.
Foreigners own US treasuries of $8.5 trillion out of $29 trillion. /4
Foreign investments in US securities are a staggering $32 trillion, while US GDP is $28 trillion.
Foreigners own US treasuries of $8.5 trillion out of $29 trillion. /4
The US budget deficit in 2024 was $1.8 trillion, 6.3% f GDP.
It is likely to rise with Trump's tax cuts for billionaires & it needs to be financed.
Strangely, the US has kept its debts short-term, so it needs to refinance $9 trillion this year.
Good luck with that! /5
It is likely to rise with Trump's tax cuts for billionaires & it needs to be financed.
Strangely, the US has kept its debts short-term, so it needs to refinance $9 trillion this year.
Good luck with that! /5
It is credibly rumored that Canada's outstanding PM Mark Carney called Trump & threatened him to sell off Canada's $350bn of US treasuries slowly in coordination with other Western countries, which forced Trump to "pause" his harmful tariffs. /6
Canada, Europe & China - the strong global economies - are likely to wait for Trump to stew in the economic mess that he himself has created.
Everybody sees that the purported emperor is naked.
Trump, the hero of 6 bankruptcies, has no clue of economics. /7
Everybody sees that the purported emperor is naked.
Trump, the hero of 6 bankruptcies, has no clue of economics. /7
The issue is no longer who will win in Trump's trade war, but how soon will Trump defeat the US economy?
His critical weakness is that he will hardly be able to finance the US & that is most important.
Stay in the audience & buy plenty of popcorn! /8
His critical weakness is that he will hardly be able to finance the US & that is most important.
Stay in the audience & buy plenty of popcorn! /8
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