Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.

When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.

Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.

The drone based defense relies on fewer people to defend a stretch of area, which plays into Ukraine’s needs. It requires more people to attack an area, which also plays into Ukraine’s needs. But it also makes a more brittle front line.

Once Russians break through the defense, Ukraine doesn’t have many forces available to push Russia back out. They simply lack the infantry. In the short term, it means incremental Russian advances. In the long term, I do not think it matters in any real way.

2: Russian armor is gradually becoming more scarce. Russia often launches large attacks the moment they rotate into a new area. We’ve seen this over the past few days. But afterwards they typically resort back to light infantry tactics, which we already see.

The armored pushes are becoming less and less intense over time. Fewer vehicles, fewer attacks, more losses. Russia still has the ability to do medium sized armor pushes. Meaning 15-20 vehicles attacking at a time. Maybe even more if they really are dedicated.

But they are not able to do 15-20 per day day after day after day. It is more of a 1 or 2 time thing followed by motorcycles and assault ladas.

3: Ukraine is developing more and more weapons capable of reaching deeper into the Russian rear. We’re talking 30,40,50,60km behind the front. These areas are increasingly becoming targets, and the more frequently this happens the more strained Russia will be.

Imagine the logistical nightmare of having to keep your resources 80km back. The number of trucks needed will skyrocket, but also the roads will fill with destroyed vehicles. What we see now where roads are clogged with wrecks in the final 10-20km will expand to 30-40km.

Drone are changing war. They will not stop changing war. Anyone who fails to accept this is utterly doomed.

4: Ukraine is becoming increasingly self sufficient over time. Yes, they will retain need for air defense missiles in particular. But homemade drones, armor, and artillery platforms are reducing reliance on foreign aid packages. Although the packages are obviously needed.

On the flip side, Russia is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign aid. Now the majority of Russian munitions come from abroad. They rely on foreign made artillery systems, foreign made missiles, and foreign made computers and other such parts.

This fact is being lost on many, who are stuck in a rut believing Ukraine is completely dependent. obviously, Ukraine requires help in many ways, but they are on a positive trajectory. Russia is on the negative trajectory.

Without North Korean ammo and American computer parts, who knows if Russia would even be able to wage war at this point.