Thread by @WarintheFuture

An Easter truce has been declared by Putin. Not only is this a cynical act of someone who has sustained his aim to subjugate #Ukraine, it has huge practical challenges. So why has Putin done this and what does it mean for the war? 1/10 🧵
politico.eu/article/putin-…

2/ The truce is a short one - about a day. It is a truce that Putin has called unilaterally, so it is not binding on the Ukrainians in any way. That Putin has done this shows that he still believes that he has the upper hand in the war, and can dictate its tempo.

3/ But war is an interactive endeavour, and does not work like that. The Ukrainians and Russians are engaged along a nearly 1000 kilometre front line. The Russians have recently stepped up the tempo of attacks, and this momentum can’t just be turned off like a spigot.

4/ It isn’t clear what the Russian truce applies to. Is it just ground combat, or does it apply to air and sea as well. Will recon and surveillance tasks still be conducted? This kind of confusion means that engagements between Ukraine and Russia during the truce are almost certain.

5/ But this is by design. Putin will want to place Ukraine in the position where it is seen as the ‘truce breaker’ even though it was not party to the truce.

6/ Ultimately, this is about Putin giving the Trump administration a little sugar. Putin does not want the war to end, he does not want to step back from his maximalist objectives. But he doesn’t want the Americans to step away from their role in negotiations either - which Rubio and Trump have hinted at last week.

7/ Putin wants to keep the U.S. engaged in negotiations for as long as possible because: 1. The American position favours Russia; and, 2. The Ukrainians and Europeans having to deal with Witkoff and co. is wasting their time and ensuring they can’t focus on more important strategic initiatives (like stepping up the pressure on Russia). 3. The current negotiations are sowing chaos among allies, which Putin likes & exploits.

8/ There is a religious dimension to this as well, albeit highly cynical. Putin knows Trump has good support among white Catholics and Protestants in America (see 2025 Pew poll below). Putin might see a truce, linked to a religious event, as helping Trump in a small way.

9/ Ultimately, the Putin Easter truce is a message direct to Trump and his administration. The message from Putin is this: “Yes, I know you are frustrated. I feel your frustration with Ukraine as well. Look at me, I even declared a truce over Easter, which Ukraine will probably break. I am the good guy here - please stick with negotiations.” It is rubbish but some will buy it.

10/ Ultimately this truce will have no bearing on the trajectory of the war. Given the lack of clarity on details, its unilateral nature and Putin’s history of breaking agreements, it is unlikely to last a day. Putin is a cunning but evil actor. He will continue to employ ruses like this to continue his war because he feels that he can still win it. We need to convince him otherwise. End.