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Michael E. Webber Profile picture
@MichaelEWebber
Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
ENERGY PREDICTIONS (April 19, 2025):

Trump’s 2nd Administration is now 3 months old, which is enough time to know his policy priorities. Based on these policy initiatives & other macro-trends, I've made some predictions for the state of domestic energy at the end of his term. 🧵
I thought it would be useful to publicly share my predictions so you can hold me accountable where I'm wrong/right.

Please come back January 20, 2029, by which time his presidency will have ended, and evaluate my accuracy.

By 1/20/2029, I predict the following for U.S. energy:
National energy consumption will decrease
National CO2 emissions will decrease
Carbon capture will increase (both CCS & DAC)
Oil drilling will decrease
Oil production will decrease
Gasoline consumption will decrease
Diesel consumption will increase
Jet fuel consumption will increase
Gasoline exports will increase
Coal consumption will decrease
Coal production will decrease
Coal employment will decrease
Coal exports will increase

Natural Gas production will increase
Natural Gas for power generation will increase
Natural Gas hook ups at households will increase
LNG exports will increase
Wind generation will increase
Solar generation will increase
Geothermal generation will increase
Nuclear power generation will be about the same
Electric vehicle sales will increase
Electric heat pump sales will increase
Battery installations will increase in # and capacity
Natural Gas micro grids will increase
Solar + battery micro grids will increase

Clean hydrogen production will increase
The transmission system will expand appreciably, a non-trivial fraction of which will be in or connected to Texas

The rise of large loads like data centers will lead to better overall utilization of the grid, improving reliability and lowering costs
Demand response programs and virtual power plants will increase dramatically, improving reliability and lowering costs

Please come back January 20, 2029 to cheer me or jeer me as appropriate. /END

#FutureOfEnergy #EnergyPredictions #EnergyCrystalBall
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More from @MichaelEWebber

Michael E. Webber Profile picture
May 26, 2024
Can we talk about

Cass Elliott,
My mom,
Fat women in the 1950s & 1960s &
drug abuse?

A 🧵

Cass Elliot’s Death Spawned a Horrible Myth. She Deserves Better. nytimes.com/2024/05/09/art…
My mother and 'Mama' Cass Elliott were born 6 months apart in 1941. They were both fat, loud-mouthed women who wore multi-colored kaftans & mumus while breaking with norms of decorum to fill the room with their larger-than-life auras.
They were both prescribed Dexedrine (e.g. ""speed) by doctors at an early age b/c that is what doctors did for fat women in the 1950s and 1960s: "Oh, you're fat? Here, take these pills."

For my mother (and potentially for Cass Elliott), that was the start of a lifelong habit.
Read 9 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Jan 31, 2024
I just paid my property taxes and anyone who tells you Texas is a low-tax state is LYING.

The tax structure in Texas is designed to soak the middle class and protect the richest earners (with zero income tax) and the landed gentry (with agricultural tax exemptions on ranches).
I wrote about the myth that Texas is a low-tax state here:
I also wrote about it here in 2022:

Read 7 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Sep 18, 2023
I am very excited to share with you that as of September 1, 2023, I have the honor of holding the John J. McKetta Centennial Energy Chair in Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.

It is humbling to be selected for the McKetta Energy Chair. Image
Who was John J. McKetta?

He was a professor of mine when I was an undergraduate & a colleague when I joined the faculty. He was a beloved teacher, excellent administrator, advisor to presidents and executives & always available for students as a mentor.

alcalde.texasexes.org/2016/01/100-an…
Thankfully his grand-daughter @ESMcKetta wrote a biography, so we can get more details. He was Ukrainian (I’m 25% Ukrainian). He grew up in a Pennsylvania coal town the son of a coal miner. He worked in the coal mines and decided it wasn’t for him, so he pursued higher education. Image
Read 14 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Aug 17, 2023
Y'all, it's hot out and @ERCOT_ISO conditions will be tight today.

Critics will be quick to blame wind & solar for the tight grid conditions, but the truth is if we didn’t have 17 GW of wind and solar at peak times today at 6 pm and 10 GW at 8 pm (time of tightest conditions)...
@ERCOT_ISO then we'd be in a world of hurt w/rolling outages and a lot of people sweating it out. It’s hard to imagine we could have built 10 or 17 GW of nuclear, coal or gas in the last few years in place of those renewables, so we owe them our gratitude instead of our criticism. [cont'd]
@ERCOT_ISO The key underlying problems with the grid right now are 1) extremely hot weather that drives up peak demand and 2) horrible energy efficiency standards, which means our demand is even higher than it should have been.

If we want to prepare our grid for a hotter future then...
Read 9 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Dec 16, 2022
Though the TX power system has been under pressure to winterize, the TX gas system has NOT.

"Arctic weather poses grave threats to the world’s most-prolific shale field B/c wellheads can freeze & pipeline pumping stations can lose power..."

finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-fac… via @Yahoo
@Yahoo This weather doesn't look as severe as Feb 2021 &that it's happening at Xmas is good news b/c many factories will be closed, lessening peak demand.

BUT, because the cold front will be so geographically large, mid-continent gas demand (and prices) should surge.
@Yahoo My predictions:

Permian gas production will sag ~15% b/c of freezeoffs.

Texas grid won't fail.

But it will be expensive nevertheless b/c gas and propane prices will surge.
Read 4 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Oct 23, 2022
The USA has always had many folks who simply don't believe in majority rule: they believe in minority rule.

The way to say you believe in minority rule w/o saying you don't believe in majority rule is to triumphantly & frequently say "We're a constitutional republic".
But who are the minorities who get to rule?

At first it was just white landowners, then white men, then white women, then non-whites in the 1960s. A lot of what we see today is a backlash to the expansion of democracy to include non-whites.
So there is a concerted push to protect and enhance white minority rule. Can't quite say "white minority rule" out loud so other code words are used for it:

"rural voters
"real America" and so forth
Read 10 tweets

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