ENERGY PREDICTIONS (April 19, 2025):

Trump’s 2nd Administration is now 3 months old, which is enough time to know his policy priorities. Based on these policy initiatives & other macro-trends, I've made some predictions for the state of domestic energy at the end of his term. 🧵 I thought it would be useful to publicly share my predictions so you can hold me accountable where I'm wrong/right.

Please come back January 20, 2029, by which time his presidency will have ended, and evaluate my accuracy.

By 1/20/2029, I predict the following for U.S. energy:

Can we talk about

Cass Elliott,
My mom,
Fat women in the 1950s & 1960s &
drug abuse?

A 🧵

Cass Elliot’s Death Spawned a Horrible Myth. She Deserves Better. nytimes.com/2024/05/09/art… My mother and 'Mama' Cass Elliott were born 6 months apart in 1941. They were both fat, loud-mouthed women who wore multi-colored kaftans & mumus while breaking with norms of decorum to fill the room with their larger-than-life auras.

I just paid my property taxes and anyone who tells you Texas is a low-tax state is LYING.

The tax structure in Texas is designed to soak the middle class and protect the richest earners (with zero income tax) and the landed gentry (with agricultural tax exemptions on ranches). I wrote about the myth that Texas is a low-tax state here:

https://x.com/MichaelEWebber/status/1394321468985577473?s=20

I am very excited to share with you that as of September 1, 2023, I have the honor of holding the John J. McKetta Centennial Energy Chair in Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.

It is humbling to be selected for the McKetta Energy Chair. Who was John J. McKetta?

He was a professor of mine when I was an undergraduate & a colleague when I joined the faculty. He was a beloved teacher, excellent administrator, advisor to presidents and executives & always available for students as a mentor.

alcalde.texasexes.org/2016/01/100-an…

Y'all, it's hot out and @ERCOT_ISO conditions will be tight today.

Critics will be quick to blame wind & solar for the tight grid conditions, but the truth is if we didn’t have 17 GW of wind and solar at peak times today at 6 pm and 10 GW at 8 pm (time of tightest conditions)... @ERCOT_ISO then we'd be in a world of hurt w/rolling outages and a lot of people sweating it out. It’s hard to imagine we could have built 10 or 17 GW of nuclear, coal or gas in the last few years in place of those renewables, so we owe them our gratitude instead of our criticism. [cont'd]

Though the TX power system has been under pressure to winterize, the TX gas system has NOT.

"Arctic weather poses grave threats to the world’s most-prolific shale field B/c wellheads can freeze & pipeline pumping stations can lose power..."

finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-fac… via @Yahoo @Yahoo This weather doesn't look as severe as Feb 2021 &that it's happening at Xmas is good news b/c many factories will be closed, lessening peak demand.

BUT, because the cold front will be so geographically large, mid-continent gas demand (and prices) should surge.

The USA has always had many folks who simply don't believe in majority rule: they believe in minority rule.

The way to say you believe in minority rule w/o saying you don't believe in majority rule is to triumphantly & frequently say "We're a constitutional republic". But who are the minorities who get to rule?

At first it was just white landowners, then white men, then white women, then non-whites in the 1960s. A lot of what we see today is a backlash to the expansion of democracy to include non-whites.

An age old playbook in TX is to nationalize gubernatorial races rather than run on a record.

2022: @GregAbbott_TX is running vs. @POTUS rather than @BetoORourke

1978: upstart Bill Clements (R) ran vs. Jimmy Carter rather than John Luke Hill (D)

Here's one of his ads👇 @GregAbbott_TX @POTUS @BetoORourke Fun fact: at the time, Bill Clements was the first Republican governor to win in TX since Reconstruction. He subsequently lost in 1982, then came back again and won a second term in 1986. I had dinner with him as a student in the 1990s. Nice guy

The @ATT internet fiber self installation is bad. I set up @Google fiber at my daughter's condo & the box included obvious simple instructions so we were ready to go w/in 20 minutes. AT&T comes w/o instructions, which is bizarre and the app doesn't do anything. Hmm. @ATT @Google Found @ATT instructions online here...

att.com/idpassets/imag…

But what's funny is that on the final page there's a weblink to click to get more support...but if you click it the website is empty and says "bad gateway." Nicely done @ATT

Hey #EnergyTwitter I know you share my disgust for woke liberals who want to end our way of life by reducing fossil fuels and use the fake “climate crisis” to make us poor. To help us channel our rage, I collected some statements by members of the woke, liberal movement. A 🧵 Woke liberal President George W. Bush said we’re addicted to oil and pledged to get us off of it.

Bush: 'America is addicted to oil' nytimes.com/2006/02/01/wor…

I just finished the audio book of "The Original Bambi: The Story of a Life in the Forest" by Felix Salten

It's a recently released English translation. That's notable b/c the original translation a century ago like entirely missed the point.
amazon.com/dp/B09B2YH65P/… via @amazon @amazon This book was surprisingly good. It is simultaneously:

1) a coming of age story

2) a nature story

3) a brutal, violent story (not really a kids' book at all!) and

4) an allegory for the rise of Nazism in Germany.

That last point was missing for a century to English readers.

It's a typical line of attack by the GOP and the O&G industry to say that high energy prices are b/c Woke Liberals or President Biden or AOC prohibit oil and gas production. Yet, natural gas production in the Permian Basin reached an annual high in 2021

eia.gov/todayinenergy/… Add'l line of attack: you can't build pipelines anymore.

Three new pipeline projects, w/5.5 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity, came online in 2021

Several new pipeline projects would add ~5.0 Bcf/d of pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Permian Basin by the end of 2024

I'm making a list of energy options for the power sector whose availabilities vary w/ the weather and those that don't:

Weather-dependent:
Natural Gas
Coal & Biomass
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Hydro

Not Weather-dependent:
Geothermal
Tidal
Fuel Oil & Diesel

What did I miss? Geothermal is the only option for the power sector I can think of that is:

Available 24/7
Doesn't depend on the weather
Is low-carbon

It also leverages a lot of know-how from the O&G sector.

Seems like a global opportunity waiting to happen.

@AndrewDessler @drvolts @T_Mason_H @jimfarley98 @Ford @DrShepherd2013 Filled up my @Ford C-Max tonight: $4.14/gal. The car gets 38 mpg & I drive ~12k mi/yr

Annual fuel: $1300+

The Mach-E gets ~2.6 mi/kWh at ~$0.10/kWh

Annual electricity: $461

I have $198 of solar credit on my electric bill. The car will be free to charge for ~5 months. @AndrewDessler @drvolts @T_Mason_H @jimfarley98 @Ford @DrShepherd2013 If my @Ford Mach-E is built ~April 4 I'll probably take delivery from @leifjohnsonford in May.

My 16-yo will get his license ~June & can start driving the C-Max.

Working out nicely. Many thanks to Thomas Almaraz at the dealership for helping me out.

I'll keep y'all posted.

@bradplumer Okay, here goes. We will solve this because:

1) customers demand it
2) employees demand it
3) investors demand it
4) many (but not all) policymakers at municipal, state/regional, and national levels are pushing for it. And those recalcitrant ones in opposition are losing hold. @bradplumer The world has faced difficult global challenges before: WWII, the Cold War, the Ozone Hole. And we solved those challenges EVEN though there were significant stakeholders in opposition to change. Eventually those holdouts lost. The world came together and solved it.

I am waiting to board a plane to Iceland, and frankly I’m a little disappointed that no one‘s dressed as a Viking in the waiting area. Update: we landed in Iceland before breakfast and the first thing we did after we got off the plane was take a hike up a mountain to check out this volcano that’s newly active after 800 years. Incredible.

It is very costly for the TX power producers (wind, solar, nuclear, coal, and gas) to underperform.

But for TX gas suppliers it is very lucrative to underperform. TX gas production down dropped 50% (80% in the Permian!) yet profits skyrocketed.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… This is the heart of the problem: Wind, solar, nukes, coal & gas power providers have a strong $$$ incentive to winterize & improve reliability b/c their lack of production was costly.

Gas suppliers made a handy profit from the flimsiness of their system. So why winterize?

Texas vs California 2009 & 2019 @TheEconomist

TX today is like 1980s CA in terms of population (~30M) & politics (Republican).

Other than stints in Paris & Lausanne, Switzerland I have lived in TX or CA my entire life so this tension between their two examples fascinates me. NOTE: California is symbolized with a surfboard in both instances. Texas with a cowboy hat. And, Texas has a petroleum-fueled jetski for transportation while CA's mode is propelled by renewable wave energy.

Looks like someone made enough money from high gas prices over a few days during the Texas energy crisis to reduce debt and increase dividends.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1387956150386282496

BTW, buried in this story is that Chevron raised its dividend and Continental Resources reinstated its dividend. It's heartwarming to know that Texans freezing to death is good for business.

The Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) paid ENVERUS to prepare a report.

The report says gas = good & wind/electricity = bad

Are you surprised that a consulting company gave its customer a report that makes them look good?

The report is highly flawed. Let’s dig in. [THREAD] Main problem: It says that gas supply disruptions were because of power outages rather than the other way around.

But that doesn’t make sense from an engineering perspective: gas supplies started to fail Feb 10-12 & load shedding in ERCOT didn’t begin until 1:20 a.m. Feb 15.

In 2009 TX had <7 MW of total installed solar capacity, almost entirely rooftop PV and 0 MW utility-scale.

In 2021 installed solar is 8+ GW (up >1000x) of utility-scale alone, not including rooftop PV.

That TX would eventually dominate the solar market was entirely obvious.

https://twitter.com/EIAgov/status/1384839875044777984

Here is an article I wrote for @ASES_Solar "Solar Today" magazine in November/December 2009 where my co-author Erin Keys and I explain the positive fundamentals of the TX solar market and predicted "don't be surprised if Texas takes the lead in solar generation."