The so-called peace negotiations have been postponed. And I think I know why.
The U.S. was expected to unveil its “peace plan” today in London. But after the main points leaked yesterday, the talks were suddenly delayed.
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The U.S. was expected to unveil its “peace plan” today in London. But after the main points leaked yesterday, the talks were suddenly delayed.
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Why the delay?
Because the U.S. proposal is completely unrealistic.
According to the plan, russia would get:
• De jure U.S. recognition of Crimea
• De facto control of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia
• NATO veto
• Sanctions lifted
• Economic deals with the U.S.
Why the delay?
Because the U.S. proposal is completely unrealistic.
According to the plan, russia would get:
• De jure U.S. recognition of Crimea
• De facto control of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia
• NATO veto
• Sanctions lifted
• Economic deals with the U.S.
3/
And what does Ukraine get?
• A vague “security guarantee” from some European countries (no U.S. involvement)
• A small piece of Kharkiv region back
• A vague promise of reconstruction aid
• U.S.-operated Zaporizhzhia NPP, sending power to both Ukraine and russia
And what does Ukraine get?
• A vague “security guarantee” from some European countries (no U.S. involvement)
• A small piece of Kharkiv region back
• A vague promise of reconstruction aid
• U.S.-operated Zaporizhzhia NPP, sending power to both Ukraine and russia
4/
Of course this would be rejected—by Ukraine and European partners.
But more importantly, it’s not even implementable. Ukrainian territory is enshrined in its Constitution. Zelenskyy and Parliament legally cannot give Crimea away.
Of course this would be rejected—by Ukraine and European partners.
But more importantly, it’s not even implementable. Ukrainian territory is enshrined in its Constitution. Zelenskyy and Parliament legally cannot give Crimea away.
5/
A referendum would be required.
But to hold one, you need a ceasefire.
And to lift martial law, you’d need elections.
And if elections are held, a new government may come in—and throw the whole deal out.
And even if they didn’t, the people would still say “no.”
A referendum would be required.
But to hold one, you need a ceasefire.
And to lift martial law, you’d need elections.
And if elections are held, a new government may come in—and throw the whole deal out.
And even if they didn’t, the people would still say “no.”
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That’s the reality the U.S. administration just ran into. Hence—postponement.
Yes, they might blame Ukraine for being “unwilling to negotiate.”
But Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours. If this collapses, it’ll be his failure.
That’s the reality the U.S. administration just ran into. Hence—postponement.
Yes, they might blame Ukraine for being “unwilling to negotiate.”
But Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours. If this collapses, it’ll be his failure.
7/
Most likely scenario?
• The U.S. blames Ukraine
• Talks collapse
• Sanctions on russia are lifted
• russia gets rewarded for its aggression
And just like that,
“Russia will be great again.”
Most likely scenario?
• The U.S. blames Ukraine
• Talks collapse
• Sanctions on russia are lifted
• russia gets rewarded for its aggression
And just like that,
“Russia will be great again.”
• • •
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