Joni Askola Profile picture
Apr 23, 2025 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/17 Europe is already at war. It’s high time we stop ignoring this reality! Image
2/17 Most Europeans are divided between those who know how serious the situation is but prefer not to think about it too much, and those who don’t know what a war is. It’s time they learn, and high time we all admit to ourselves that we are at war with russia Image
3/17 Some have been criticized in Europe for saying that we are at war, but they were right. There are many forms of war, and russia is imposing several of them on Europe Image
4/17 russia has been at war with Ukraine for 11 years, three of which have been full-scale. Ukraine is closer than most realize, and the escalation of the war there is a good example of what is to come if we don’t stop it from spreading Image
5/17 russia is also waging a very successful hybrid war on other European countries through sabotage, cyberattacks, assassinations, economic warfare, intimidation, and disinformation campaigns. This war started long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Image
6/17 I’m increasingly convinced that our failure to help Ukraine sufficiently is mostly due to most Europeans not admitting to themselves that we are at war with russia. By ignoring this reality, we handicap ourselves Image
7/17 We can still prevent this full-scale war from spreading to other European countries. However, this requires us to wake up, admit the realities, and take action instead of ignoring what is happening around us. The war won’t disappear by ignoring it Image
8/17 Europe surpasses russia in almost every metric, with better values and healthier societies. However, our weakness is not admitting we are at war. The longer we delay, the more lives will be lost, and the higher the risk of the full-scale war spreading Image
9/17 Listen to what Putin, Medvedev, Surkov, and other russian officials and propagandists say, and you will see that they consider themselves at war with us. They are acting on it, and we are not because we are cowards who prefer to outsource our defense Image
10/17 With Trump in power, he won’t defend us, and we need to take care of our own defense. Trump is also failing to mediate the end of the war and is likely about to give up on that, so the issue is more timely than ever before Image
11/17 russian ambitions don’t stop in Ukraine, and Putin is preparing for the next wars. The war in Ukraine might last for a long time, but no matter how long it lasts, russia won’t be able to demobilize because that would cause chaos and hurt the economy too much Image
12/17 The same people who said that russia would not invade Ukraine are now saying that russia won’t invade Europe. They are useful idiots, traitors, and opportunists who will be wrong over and over again Image
13/17 It is possible for russia to fail in Ukraine and still invade Europe afterward. Ukraine, as a large country that has prepared for years, is much harder to invade than Georgia or the Baltics, especially if the US does not help Image
14/17 It is important to admit realities but also important not to to panic. We have taken some successful steps in increasing shell production and with the Czech initiative. We just need to do much more! Image
15/17 Our leaders have been focusing on hypothetical post-war peacekeepers in a war that is not about to end. We keep wasting time even though we know that Trump won’t save Ukraine. We need to focus on helping Ukraine now instead Image
16/17 How we act now will determine how bad actors will treat us in the future. We cannot let russia get away with an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and only long-term commitments of aid to Ukraine will change Putin’s perspective on the war Image
17/17 We can still prevent the full-scale war from spreading to other European countries, but we need to admit that we are at war. We then need to make long-term commitments to Ukraine. I will talk more about all of this in a video that I will publish on my YouTube channel soon Image

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More from @joni_askola

Feb 10
1/12 EU regulation is like kryptonite to our enemies🧵 Image
2/12 There is a reason why Putin, Musk, Trump, Vance, Thiel, and Xi all spend fortunes to attack Brussels.

They do not hate the EU because it fails.

They hate it because of its potential.

Our unity is their nightmare Image
3/12 Think about the strategy. Why do they fund anti-EU movements?

Because they can bully Italy. They can buy Hungary. They can pressure France.

But they cannot bully a unified bloc of 450 million people.

When we stand together, their leverage evaporates Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
1/11 The war is far from over, but Ukraine is still winning.

Here is how we can make sure that it defeats Russia 🧵 Image
2/11 Russia’s 2022 invasion is a genocide.

They use genocidal rhetoric to justify erasing Ukraine's identity. They kidnap children and commit daily war crimes to punish civilians for simply refusing to be Russian.

This is a systematic attempt to destroy a nation Image
3/11 The human cost is massive.

In Mariupol, the death toll in 3 months potentially exceeded the total deaths in Gaza throughout the entire war, despite a much smaller population.

People underestimate this scale and don't see that Russia is committing genocide in Europe Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets

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