Joni Askola Profile picture
Apr 23 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/17 Europe is already at war. It’s high time we stop ignoring this reality! Image
2/17 Most Europeans are divided between those who know how serious the situation is but prefer not to think about it too much, and those who don’t know what a war is. It’s time they learn, and high time we all admit to ourselves that we are at war with russia Image
3/17 Some have been criticized in Europe for saying that we are at war, but they were right. There are many forms of war, and russia is imposing several of them on Europe Image
4/17 russia has been at war with Ukraine for 11 years, three of which have been full-scale. Ukraine is closer than most realize, and the escalation of the war there is a good example of what is to come if we don’t stop it from spreading Image
5/17 russia is also waging a very successful hybrid war on other European countries through sabotage, cyberattacks, assassinations, economic warfare, intimidation, and disinformation campaigns. This war started long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Image
6/17 I’m increasingly convinced that our failure to help Ukraine sufficiently is mostly due to most Europeans not admitting to themselves that we are at war with russia. By ignoring this reality, we handicap ourselves Image
7/17 We can still prevent this full-scale war from spreading to other European countries. However, this requires us to wake up, admit the realities, and take action instead of ignoring what is happening around us. The war won’t disappear by ignoring it Image
8/17 Europe surpasses russia in almost every metric, with better values and healthier societies. However, our weakness is not admitting we are at war. The longer we delay, the more lives will be lost, and the higher the risk of the full-scale war spreading Image
9/17 Listen to what Putin, Medvedev, Surkov, and other russian officials and propagandists say, and you will see that they consider themselves at war with us. They are acting on it, and we are not because we are cowards who prefer to outsource our defense Image
10/17 With Trump in power, he won’t defend us, and we need to take care of our own defense. Trump is also failing to mediate the end of the war and is likely about to give up on that, so the issue is more timely than ever before Image
11/17 russian ambitions don’t stop in Ukraine, and Putin is preparing for the next wars. The war in Ukraine might last for a long time, but no matter how long it lasts, russia won’t be able to demobilize because that would cause chaos and hurt the economy too much Image
12/17 The same people who said that russia would not invade Ukraine are now saying that russia won’t invade Europe. They are useful idiots, traitors, and opportunists who will be wrong over and over again Image
13/17 It is possible for russia to fail in Ukraine and still invade Europe afterward. Ukraine, as a large country that has prepared for years, is much harder to invade than Georgia or the Baltics, especially if the US does not help Image
14/17 It is important to admit realities but also important not to to panic. We have taken some successful steps in increasing shell production and with the Czech initiative. We just need to do much more! Image
15/17 Our leaders have been focusing on hypothetical post-war peacekeepers in a war that is not about to end. We keep wasting time even though we know that Trump won’t save Ukraine. We need to focus on helping Ukraine now instead Image
16/17 How we act now will determine how bad actors will treat us in the future. We cannot let russia get away with an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and only long-term commitments of aid to Ukraine will change Putin’s perspective on the war Image
17/17 We can still prevent the full-scale war from spreading to other European countries, but we need to admit that we are at war. We then need to make long-term commitments to Ukraine. I will talk more about all of this in a video that I will publish on my YouTube channel soon Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jun 13
1/6 Israel’s strikes on Iran are shaking the region—but the shockwaves won’t stop there.

Ukraine, still locked in a fight for survival against russia, could feel both the fallout and the opportunity.

How might this reshape Ukraine’s war? Image
2/6 The downsides are real.

If this escalation drags on, more Western weapons and attention could shift to the Middle East.

We have already seen US guidance systems meant for Ukraine redirected.

Promises broken. Focus lost Image
3/6 Rising oil prices are another blow.

They pad russia’s war chest, helping it fund more missiles, drones, salaries, and propaganda.

A distracted West and a richer russia? That’s a dangerous combo for Ukraine Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 13
1/8 Israel just struck Iran.

The world is reacting—but most people still don’t fully understand what this moment really means.

This isn’t about Gaza.

It’s about nukes, power, and the future of the world Image
2/8 Last night, Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear program.

This movement was years in the making—and yet, much of the West still doesn’t understand what’s really at stake.

This isn’t about Gaza.

Iran and Gaza should be treated separately Image
3/8 You can be outraged by Israel’s war crimes in Gaza and still recognize the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran.

These are not mutually exclusive positions.

The Middle East is complicated—and pretending otherwise is dangerous Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 12
1/4 Why should Ukraine listen to the US if Washington cuts aid and eases sanctions on russia?

If Trump goes down that path, Ukraine has every reason to walk away from any deal—including the minerals one Image
2/4 Trump’s team can’t even criticize russia, let alone pressure it.

They talk about doing business with a regime that invades neighbors, kills civilians, and props up dictators.

russia is an enemy—and an economic midget.

Why sell out allies like that? Image
3/4 This isn’t just morally bankrupt—it’s strategically insane.

Undermining Ukraine, alienating Europe, and cozying up to Putin weakens US soft power, global trust, and even arms sales.

Reagan would be horrified.

MAGA won’t say anything, but real Republicans should Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
1/12 Want to get hated by everyone in one thread? Try this:

Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear program soon—but people in the West need to grasp this:

Gaza ≠ Iran.

You can oppose war crimes in Gaza and still believe Iran must never get nukes.

The world isn’t black and white Image
2/12 Nothing is certain—especially timing—but signs point to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program being closer than ever.

Gaza and Iran are somewhat linked, but they are not same—and must be treated as separate issues Image
3/12 You can oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza and still oppose Iran’s regime.

Iran supports hamas, hezbollah, and the houthis—but it doesn’t care about Palestinians.

It exploits their suffering for its own power Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 11
1/4 What could a US-Israeli strike campaign on Iran’s nuclear program actually look like?

It wouldn’t be a single air raid.

It could be a complex, multi-layered operation—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, bombs, cyberattacks, sabotage, and more.

Here’s how it could unfold: Image
2/4 Israel has stuck Iran before using air-launched ballistic missiles. It also possesses other air-launched weapons, such as cruise missiles and smart bombs—but a sustained campaign would likely require US support Image
3/4 The US brings tankers—and serious firepower: Tomahawks, JASSMs, GBU-57 ”bunker busters,” and bombs like the JSOW. Some of Iran’s key nuclear facilities are buried deep, requiring heavy payloads to reach Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
1/5 Are Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure imminent?

Signs are emerging—but it wouldn’t be the first time.

Netanyahu’s government and the IDF have been preparing, but the timing likely hinges on US-Iran talks.

Israel can act alone—but prefers US backing Image
2/5 Talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, but time may be running out amid rumors of a breakdown. Israel sees Iran nearing nuclear capability and won’t wait forever. Past strikes show its readiness to act Image
3/5 US moves suggest preparation: guidance systems meant for Ukraine are being redirected to the Middle East, and the US embassy in Iraq is reportedly preparing for evacuation. Two American THAAD batteries are already deployed to Israel Image
Read 5 tweets

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