Zelensky: If Russia is ready for a ceasefire, it must stop massive strikes on Ukraine.
Also, we reviewed Trump’s proposal in London, adjusted some minor details, and sent it back for approval.
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Zelensky: Trump’s team proposed a strategy for a ceasefire during London talks.
Ukraine, European countries, and the U.S. reviewed it, adjusted certain points, and created a document that's now awaiting Trump’s approval.
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Zelensky: Russia dislikes Ukraine’s presence in Africa and opposes normal humanitarian and economic relations between Ukraine and African nations.
Russia seeks exclusive influence not only in Africa but globally.
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Zelensky: Russia kidnapped thousands of Ukrainian children. Today, I handed President Ramaphosa a list of 400 names.
We seek South Africa's assistance in returning them home.
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Zelensky: If Russia says it's ready for a ceasefire, it must stop massive strikes on Ukraine. That's Ukrainians who have been under constant Russian attacks.
US senators move to sanction Hungary over blocking Ukraine aid.
A bipartisan bill from Shaheen and Tillis would target Hungarian officials with asset freezes and visa bans for obstructing support to Kyiv and buying Russian energy — as Orbán holds up a €90B EU loan, FT. 1/
The “Block Putin Act” is led by Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rep. Sen. Thom Tillis.
It would force Trump to sanction officials tied to Russian oil and gas deals and efforts to block Ukraine support. 2/
The trigger is Budapest’s veto. Orbán is blocking a €90B EU loan to Ukraine ahead of elections where polls show his party trailing by 23 points against Tisza. 3/
Iran may be winning the war despite losing battles.
Tehran's goal is to show US and Israel cost of confronting Iran is militarily, economically and politically unsustainable. Strategy is survive and exhaust — Foreign Affairs. 1/
Iran has been preparing for this war for nearly 40 years.
Tehran decentralized command, distributed political authority across regional nodes and cultivated multiple successors at every IRGC level. This enabled regime to withstand assassination of many high-ranking leaders. 2/
US and Israel's decapitation campaign created unexpected problem: replacement commanders are more dangerous.
Younger, fought Americans in Iraq and Israelis in Lebanon and Syria. They don't share older generation's caution who remembered catastrophic Iran-Iraq War costs. 3/
Putin is making $760M a day from oil as the Iran war drives prices higher.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues are set to double this month — from $12B to nearly $24B — boosted by price spikes and US sanctions waivers, Telegraph and KSE Institute. 1/
Even if the war ends soon, Russia’s energy revenues are projected at $218.5B this year. That’s +63% vs pre-war expectations — an $84B windfall under an optimistic scenario. 2/
If the conflict lasts 6 months, revenues could reach $386.5B. That’s +188% vs baseline projections — turning a regional war into a massive cash surge for Moscow. 3/
The Pentagon prepares “final blow” options for Iran.
Plans include ground invasions, seizure of key islands, and a massive bombing campaign if talks fail and Hormuz remains blocked, Axios. 1/
US officials outlined 4 main scenarios.
Seizing Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil hub), Larak (controls Hormuz), Abu Musa and nearby islands, or intercepting Iranian oil shipments in the strait. 2/
Plans also include strikes or raids on nuclear sites.
Options range from ground operations to secure enriched uranium to large-scale airstrikes to destroy facilities. 3/
Shapiro: The only thing Iran can do at this point is harass people.
They can harass their neighbors with occasional missile and drone strikes.
They can bother some shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Shapiro: There are two types of victory, political victory and actual victory.
We may already have an actual victory. If Iran ends up falling, that victory will belong to President Trump because we will have weakened the foundations of the Iranian regime. 2/
Shapiro: On the one hand, Iran winning would just be them surviving. That survival amounts to not losing.
But is not losing really victory for Iran? It might be for the moment, but not for long, because Iran would remain isolated and devoid of basic resources. 3/
Rutte: Ukraine's NATO membership is not on the cards for now. When the war stops, Putin must know the reaction will be devastating if he tries again.
In Paris in January, a coalition of the willing agreed on what Ukraine's security guarantees should look like. 1/
Rutte: Critical US support for Ukraine, paid for by allies through PURL, continues to flow — and this is crucial. Intelligence the US shares with Ukraine is essential.
So is defense industrial output from US stockpiles — Patriot interceptors and other vital military gear. 2/
Rutte: Iran's nuclear and missile capability is potentially an existential threat to Israel and a threat to Europe. Iran is an exporter of chaos to the region and to the world. Let's not be naive.
The US is degrading that capability. And yes, I applaud it. 3/